Bad-weather-forecast lead

[helene_t]

Due to bad weather forecast, yesterday's tracking was limited to the morning, so an extra indy was played in the afternoon. 19 people signed up, but our tracking guide turned out to be a decent bridge player so he joined us, making us a round number.

 

Matchpoints, all vuln. 19-board indy (everyone plays one board with everyone), LHO a good intermediate, RHO a lesser intermediate AFAICR, p is, well, me. Everyone supposed to play Acol. You are the tracking guide and you're on lead after

 

LHO Helene RHO You

1♣ Pass 1♦ Pass

1♥ Pass 1NT a.p.

 

xxxxx-Jxxx-Qxx-x

[Walddk]

The auction suggests that you are shut out with 14-16 hcp, semi or unbalanced and long clubs. However, you don't have six good clubs when you didn't bid 2♣ over 1NT.

 

Your side suit is likely diamonds. I picture your shape as 2-2-4-5 or 1-3-4-5. It is also possible that you are 2-4-2-5 or 1-4-3-5. Since I can't be certain which will work best (low heart or diamond might be right), I think I will go passive and lead a spade.

 

Roland

[jtfanclub]

The auction suggests that you are shut out with 14-16 hcp, semi or unbalanced and long clubs. However, you don't have six good clubs when you didn't bid 2♣ over 1NT.

I'm one of those crazy people who likes leading singletons vs. NT.

 

I agree that my partner has a club suit, probably 5-6 broken clubs. That means a club lead by me will help establish the suit, since LHO is the one with the club honors. It's not like I can lead it later- I may never get in again.

 

So it's a club for me.

[zasanya]

4th highest ♠ ofcourse; only unbid suit;Declarer seems to have denied 4 card ♠ Dont like to lead singleton;

[helene_t]

[hv=d=w&v=b&n=sxxhkxdaxxcakqtxx&w=saqjxhaqxxdxcjxxx&e=skxhxxxdkjxxxxcxx&s=sxxxxxhjxxxdqxxcx]399|300|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

South lead a club. Maybe East should have rebid diamonds. Maybe not. Our silence suggested that declarer had something in spades.

 

Back home I would have bid my clubs at second turn since most people play short clubs and up-the-line. Here, West's bidding suggested a 5-card clubs. Although a few play Baronized, probably the only hand that could open 1♣ and rebid 1♥ with only four clubs is the specific 4-4-1-4.

 

Not sure what would have happened with a spade lead. Maybe declarer would win in the dummy and finese the ♦J, then it would be down two.

[jtfanclub]

Not sure what would have happened with a spade lead. Maybe declarer would win in the dummy and finese the ♦J, then it would be down two.

I can't imagine what the point would be of trying to set up the diamonds. There's no entries to them.

 

Establishing the hearts has more hope, especially if declarer's side has the heart spots. Win the first trick in hand, finesse the heart ten. 4 spades, 2 hearts, and the king of diamonds or jack of clubs for 7 tricks.

[cherdano]

Not sure what would have happened with a spade lead. Maybe declarer would win in the dummy and finese the ♦J, then it would be down two.

I can't imagine what the point would be of trying to set up the diamonds. There's no entries to them.

 

Establishing the hearts has more hope, especially if declarer's side has the heart spots. Win the first trick in hand, finesse the heart ten. 4 spades, 2 hearts, and the king of diamonds or jack of clubs for 7 tricks.

You always guess right on the diamond switch?

[jtfanclub]

You always guess right on the diamond switch?

Um, yeah.

 

I have no entries left to the hand. If I play the jack of diamonds, and it's won by the ace, I'm probably never getting the king of diamonds. They'll cash their clubs, throw me on the board with a spade, and take whatever hearts they deserve.

 

If I play the jack, and it holds the trick, I haven't really gained anything from winning it with the king either.

[TimG]

Not sure what would have happened with a spade lead. Maybe declarer would win in the dummy and finese the ♦J, then it would be down two.

I can't imagine what the point would be of trying to set up the diamonds. There's no entries to them.

 

Establishing the hearts has more hope, especially if declarer's side has the heart spots. Win the first trick in hand, finesse the heart ten. 4 spades, 2 hearts, and the king of diamonds or jack of clubs for 7 tricks.

You always guess right on the diamond switch?

Why wouldn't north cash the Ace of Diamonds and get out with his remaining spade?

[jtfanclub]

Why wouldn't north cash the Ace of Diamonds and get out with his remaining spade?

Um, because you think partner has a club void?

 

I don't have a good reason, and that's down 1 when the hearts don't split 3-3 and the length in heart is (unsuprisingly) to declarer's left.

 

I still claim it's the best shot at making.

 

EDIT: Actually, the best shot of making turns out to be to win the first trick with the ace of spades, spade to king, heart to ten- that way, there's no exit card.

[cherdano]

I lead a spade. The only point in a club lead seems to be to take partner off the first club endplay while he has safe exits. (If we could set up or run clubs with one lead from me she would have bid 2♣ or doubled 1N, I am confident. :) )

[cherdano]

I lead a spade. The only point in a club lead seems to be to take partner off the first club endplay while he has safe exits. (If we could set up or run clubs with one lead from me she would have bid 2♣ or doubled 1N, I am confident. :) )

[Walddk]

[hv=d=w&v=b&n=sxxhkxdaxxcakqtxx&w=saqjxhaqxxdxcjxxx&e=skxhxxxdkjxxxxcxx&s=sxxxxxhjxxxdqxxcx]399|300|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

Here, West's bidding suggested a 5-card clubs.

Possibly, but that should not stop you from bidding clubs on your second turn, alternatively double 1NT to show a good hand that was shut out (too many clubs). Let me give another example:

 

♠ AKQ10xx

♥ Kx

♦ Axx

♣ xx

 

Same hand, I just switched clubs and spades. Would you not bid a natural 2♠ on this auction ...

 

1♣ (pass) 1♠ (??)

 

I think most people would come in with 2♠ now, although it's quite possible that RHO has five of them.

 

If you keep silent with the actual hand, I think it's impossible for your partner to figure out that you have those cards and that a club would be a successful lead. Let's be honest: how often is it right to lead a singleton against NT?

 

Roland

[jtfanclub]

Let's be honest: how often is it right to lead a singleton against NT?

A better question is, how often is it right for you to lead your partner's suit?

 

The trick is, on most auctions, just because you have a singleton doesn't mean your partner has length in the suit. But when the auction makes it clear that your partner does have a suit, he shouldn't have to bid it just to make sure you noticed.

 

Here, the contract is matchpoints, everybody vulnerable. Even on a spade lead, 1NT is probably down 1. On a club lead, it's down 2 or 3. Both of those results are better than 2 clubs, which either makes exactly or goes down 1.

 

I mean, look at North's hand. Six card suit AKQ. Stoppers in two suits, in fact the very two suits the opponent's have bid! Do you really think they're going to make 1NT? Not only does 2 clubs making not score as well as 1NT-1, but you may scare them into hearts where, if they have the spots, it looks like they'll make.

 

Take the plus. And when you have no entries, lead your partner's suit. Even if that means leading a singleton.

[cherdano]

You don't know partner has 5 clubs JT, LHO could be 2425 and RHO 3253. Or RHO could even be 3244 (it's matchpoints...) And against that, partner didn't double 1N.

[jtfanclub]

You don't know partner has 5 clubs JT, LHO could be 2425 and RHO 3253. Or RHO could even be 3244 (it's matchpoints...) And against that, partner didn't double 1N.

The original theory here, which Roland posted and I subscribe to, is that Helene's got to have a 15 count oror more. You have 3 hcp, neither opponent even made a serious attempt at game. That should leave them with an upper limit of 22 hcp. The opening bid was 1 club. It's not like she got shut out of her suit.

 

The only possible hand with a 15 count or higher that passes one club is a club stack. So that's what I think she has. I suppose it's barely possible that LHO has exactly 14, RHO has exactly 9, and they don't invite with 14. But I think the club stack is far more likely.

 

Furthermore, I think she's confident of her partner's abilities to figure this out. So she'd rather set 1NT a couple of tricks than play in a minor suit part score where she already knows the suit is breaking badly.

 

And finally, if she had a balanced 14 count, why not X 1NT and play in partner's suit? Helene must be confident of setting 1NT and *not* confident of setting 2 of a major. That implies length in a suit. But why not bid the suit over one club? Because...it must be clubs. It's the only thing that fits the auction.

[cherdano]

Hmm, the double of 1NT would show a penalty double with clubs for me, not a balanced 14-count.

[jtfanclub]

Hmm, the double of 1NT would show a penalty double with clubs for me, not a balanced 14-count.

I wonder what is standard?

 

I hate Xing 1NT here for penalties...even if I can set it, I'll just take the plus rather than let them scramble.

[Double !]

Helene:

I can understand your initial pass after rho opened 1♣ although i must admit that I would have been very tempted to make the underbid of a 1NT overcall. In many instances, many matchpoints are won by the partnership that gets to 1NT first.

 

Given your initial pass, I believe that you must either bid 2C (natural) after rho rebid, or else double 1NT. Otherwise you have been shut out on while holding a very good hand.

 

(A side point, although I am very much in the minority, I strongly recommend considering playing nonvulnerable 1NT overcall as being 13-16. Then you don't have to pass with a decent opening bid, and then hope the bidding goes in such a way that you or partner eventually are able to balance. Trap passes are certainly made on certain hands, but with the 13-16 NT overcal, you will find that you often wind up in a playable contract or that you disrupt the opps' bidding. Only twice in many years can I remember going for a telephone number after making this bid. [Yes, I am promoting one of my toys.])

 

DHL

[helene_t]

I intended it as diamonds, but giving it some more thoughts, that's silly. P may be relucatant to leand from ♥KJxxxx or AJxxxx, especially if she has no side entry, and declarer may be gambling with QTx or even a singleton king.