Improving My Leads

[Guest Jlall]

Simplish one, Jx Axxx T98x ATx. MP red/red, your RHO opens 4S and everyone passes.

[paulg]

♣A ... I think leading the shorter suit means I have a little more chance of only blowing one trick in the suit.

[Free]

♦T for me

[the hog]

D Ten. Yes, I know opener may get pitches on the Ds while we have cashing rounded tricks, but cashing an Ace may well set up a Kx in opener's hand, particularly at this vulnerability.

Clearly Justin thinks this lead is incorrect as otherwise it would be too easy.

[han]

I would certainly lead the diamond ten at the table, and I wouldn't consider it a big problem. I can certainly see arguments for leading an ace but even if declarer has nothing in that suit it could backfire if dummy has KQ there and the ace of diamonds.

 

Clearly Justin thinks this lead is incorrect as otherwise it would be too easy.

[\QOUTE]

 

Hmm, I don't agree. I think that there is a good chance that Justin thinks it is a tough lead.

[benlessard]

T of ♦. No reason to make agressive leads. Diamonds could be the best spot to get your tricks and leading an A could easily blow a trick or a tempo. Leading a low club is too dangerous.

 

Anyone ready for a computer simulation ?

[Foxx]

I'm going with the ♦10 here. Normal contract, normal lead. It could easily be a cash-out deal but there is no need to take drastic action. If dummy hits with the ♦AKQ, I'll make it up on the next board.

[Finch]

Ace of hearts

It's fairly usual to lead an ace on the this sequence, and I think the longer ace is less likely to blow (too many) tricks.

 

I'm not wildly happy with this, and I am accumulating a load of hands where empirically a trump lead was right. But I'm still not leading trumps.

 

If RHO is a known random pre-emptor, the D10 is more tempting.

[Gerben42]

I am following Frances' reasoning and lead ♥A.

[mikeh]

I think it is close between the ♥A (the aggressive lead.. the ♣A is also aggressive, but too aggressive in my mind) and the ♦10 (the passive lead).

 

Normally, I'd be writing about the difference in lead at mps and imps, but here we have insufficient information to make any distinction. There is a very good chance that any lead we make will be the only lead to let the contract through or, conversely, to set it. And, equally, any lead may be the one to blow overtricks or undertricks.

 

I think, at the table, I'd usually lead the ♦10.... so, to be consistent, that's my vote here. But I'd change to the ♥A in a heartbeat. The ♣ A is a distant third, to the point that I'd never lead it. And I NEVER lead trump in this situation.

[nige1]

Simplish one, ♠ J x ♥ A x x x ♦ T 9 8 x ♣ A T x.

MP red/red, your RHO opens 4S and everyone passes.

IMO ♥A = 10, ♣ A = 7, ♦T = 5. ♠J = 3

Rixi Markus' advice to lead an ace against a preempt often seems to work.

[Halo]

I would just always lead Ace of hearts on this auction and live with the consequences.

 

I think ten of diamonds is very attractive, but I can't live with the idea that an ace lead would take it down, while I have two aces.

[skjaeran]

♥A.

I have to admit I might on a rare occasion try a low ♥ too. :)

[pclayton]

♥A. I have some disdain for the ♣A, but I don't care for the ♦10 at all.

[Edmunte1]

I'm in the ♥A camp too. Anyway seems more a guess than a logical option

[dake50]

Two cases: 1. 4S by RHO is guess to be cheap vs our 4H. -> HA.

2. 4S to induce error, if no blabbing. -> any reasoned lead.

 

HA wins 1. Reasonable on 2.

[y66]

If RHO has KQTxxxxx and 5-10 HCPs, it's very close between CA and HA.

 

CA 83 times out of 100 is best lead or as good as any other

HA 81 "

DT 76 "

S2 76 "

SJ 73 "

Hx 64 "

 

Numbers are per 10,000 deal simulation using Jack to generate deals and Bo Haglund's double dummy solver and Flip Cronje's command line interface to analyze best leads.

 

5,000 deals have HCP=5-7 and 5,000 have HCP=8-10.

 

Will try some other hand types for RHO but it will take awhile. My wife wants to use the computer!

 

p.s. I'm just hacking around with this problem which I find somewhat interesting. Do not have any expertise in bridge or in running simulations to speak of. Happy to share output files if someone wants to critique them and rerun the simulation if problems are found.