The Real China Syndrome

[jtfanclub]

If by fairly soon you mean in the next 50-100 years this indeed would be big news.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/th...r/2001rank.html

 

In fact, China is probably higher, as they have a *lot* of off-the-books sales, from pirated sortware to heroin to weapons. In addition, some of the NorthWest is still pretty much a barter economy, which I doubt is accurately shown here.

 

So the Big Three are the U.S., EU, and China.

 

The two Mid-Majors are Japan and India, which are a third the size of the Big Three.

 

Excluding members of the EU, next on the list are the Regional Powers: Russia, Brazil, South Korea, Canada,Mexico, Indonesia. Each of them are less than half the size of Japan and India economically.

 

China is already effectively equal economically to the EU and the U.S. Their combination of a weak government and reliance on exports makes them a lot more vulnerable than the EU and U.S.

[mike777]

"China is already effectively equal economically to the EU and the U.S."

 

 

No!

 

China, today, is closer to 25% effectively, not 100%.

 

http://sun-bin.blogspot.com/2005/12/when-w...vertake-us.html

 

 

I avoided mentioning this before but let's not forget the Singularity may come in 2050, tough to predict gdp anywhere after that event. :)

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity

[pbleighton]

So Mike, are you saying you're not buying CIA information?

 

They say it's 75%.

 

:)

 

Peter

[mike777]

So Mike, are you saying you're not buying CIA information?

 

They say it's 75%.

 

:)

 

Peter

They do not if I am reading the same info. They say PPP is 75% yes..not Gross GDP?

 

That is not the same thing as effectively equal to the usa in economic terms. :)

 

 

http://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/gd...ate_2007_0.html

[jtfanclub]

No, he's saying he can't tell the difference between GDP and GDP/cap.

 

CIA shows GDP, which is approximately equal. His blog shows GDP/cap, which is about 25%.

 

Which would mean...that China has about 4 times the number of people as the U.S.

 

Good thing we have the Internets to tell us all this, huh?

[mike777]

http://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/gd...ate_2007_0.html

 

If you prefer CIA source. :)

 

Feel free to debate exchange rates and Purchasing Parity on your own. I studied it for several years in trading foreign currencies and the so called experts never agreed.

[pbleighton]

If you prefer CIA source.

 

Ah, so you cherry-pick your intelligence estimates.

 

You could be a Republican President!!!!!!

 

Peter

[mike777]

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/sp...215/default.htm

 

Has many citations for those who wish to learn more.

 

Good overview of the Chinese Economy from the Fed.