Straight forward problem

[kenrexford]

After 4♥, I'll sign off at 4♠.  If he has four of the five keys, I cannot imagine him passing this.

Kind of hard for him to hold 4 of the 5 keycards for spades, when you are looking at two of them yourself, isn't it?

In the context of a 4♦ call, partner will not be looking at the "key cards" from the perspective of a RKCB response with spades agreed as trumps. He will be looking at "key cards" in the context of a RKCB response with diamonds agreed as trumps.

 

If you prefer, he could have four of the six key cards if 6KCB were used.

 

Whatever. Bottom line is that he needs four of the following five "critical" and missing cards: ♠A, ♥A, ♣A, ♦K, or ♦Q.

[Finch]

Results: I decided to just bid 4S. Partner had Axx AJT Txx AQx so we missed a very good slam.

Yeah, well, that doesn't look like a 3NT bid to me with 6 controls and one suit not stopped (actually it's only got 12 cards, but we get the idea).

 

I'll go with the "blame partner" answer. As a method, it works a remarkable amount of the time.

[Guest Jlall]

Results: I decided to just bid 4S. Partner had Axx AJT Txx AQx so we missed a very good slam.

Yeah, well, that doesn't look like a 3NT bid to me with 6 controls and one suit not stopped (actually it's only got 12 cards, but we get the idea).

 

I'll go with the "blame partner" answer. As a method, it works a remarkable amount of the time.

thx, edited my post.

[pclayton]

Results: I decided to just bid 4S. Partner had Axx AJT Txx AQx so we missed a very good slam.

 

edit: Txxx of diamonds, left out an x

Hands like this make me glad I'm playing a natural 2N call here, or at least a multi-way 2♣ to show a balanced hand.

[jtfanclub]

Results: I decided to just bid 4S. Partner had Axx AJT Txx(x) AQx so we missed a very good slam.

Eh. Your partner was unbelievably control rich and a max, and slam still wasn't 100%.

 

Why blame anybody?

[Guest Jlall]

Results: I decided to just bid 4S. Partner had Axx AJT Txx(x) AQx so we missed a very good slam.

Eh. Your partner was unbelievably control rich and a max, and slam still wasn't 100%.

 

Why blame anybody?

I didn't blame anyone nor did I ask for the blame, just giving the results.

[mikeh]

I have sympathy for the 3N bid: it rated to work most of the time, and it would normally make for a quick, stress-free auction, which is useful in a first-time or nearly first-time partnership, but it was a lazy bid: and significantly undervalued the hcp. Sure, we discount for 4333 shape, but we do that automatically when we assign 3N as 13-15 4333: this hand is better than 15 in that context: it is at least a 16 count because of the controls (not to mention that potentially valuable heart 10). I'd vote for 2♣ (not 2♦ on 10xxx).

 

Then I'd raise 2♠ to 3♠, and I suspect we'd get to slam thereafter.

[jtfanclub]

I didn't blame anyone nor did I ask for the blame, just giving the results.

I apologize. It was Frances who was using the 'blame your partner' strategy. I was just too lazy to merge both posts together.

[Apollo81]

I think Adam had this one right. The hand wants to bid RKC but can't (unambiguously at least), so make a bid that will allow you to bid RKC next.

[Finch]

I didn't blame anyone nor did I ask for the blame, just giving the results.

I apologize. It was Frances who was using the 'blame your partner' strategy. I was just too lazy to merge both posts together.

And indeed it was lowerline who started the "4S, if it's wrong, blame partner" strategy, I was just too lazy to quote properly.

 

But actually if we're having a post-mortem, you could argue that partner's hand proves that 4S was the right bid:

 

- Partner had 3 aces (3 aces!!!) and a 15-count plus the 10 of hearts. Talk about super-maximum.

- Yet on a diamond lead (the suit they hold the most honours in) slam is only slightly better than 50% for us poor single dummy souls who don't know which finesse to take which way

[Halo]

But actually if we're having a post-mortem, you could argue that partner's hand proves that 4S was the right bid:

 

- Partner had 3 aces (3 aces!!!) and a 15-count plus the 10 of hearts. Talk about super-maximum.

As I said earlier, it's a bit unlucky to find partner with three aces.

 

Give him two (much more likely) and then construct some hands.

[bid_em_up]

- Yet on a diamond lead (the suit they hold the most honours in) slam is only slightly better than 50% for us poor single dummy souls who don't know which finesse to take which way

Wouldn't ducking the first diamond (paying off to a stiff in LHO's hand), then win A diamonds, draw trumps, AK♥, and cashing the rest of the spades reducing to:

 

♠x ♦x ♣x opposite ♥10 ♣AQ as we play the last spade, give you a better shot to make than simply picking a finesse?

 

We can have a legitimate squeeze, a legitimate endplay on RHO at this point if we think he holds the last diamond (yes, it is possible that RHO might could escape this endplay though by pitching his high diamond), the club finesse is still available, we might have dropped the heart Q (not probable, but possible), and we certainly have a better count on the hand than we do than if we earlier tried to guess a finesse. Not to mention the sadistic pleasure of watching at least one opponent squirm. Heck, that by itself makes this a better line, even if we go wrong in the end position. :)

 

Surely this is much higher than 50%, though I admit I have never been good at estimating percentages of lines of play, my guess is that this is closer to being in the 75-85% range than the "only slightly better than 50%".

 

No? Feel free to correct my errors, otherwise I am missing something.

[kenrexford]

Results: I decided to just bid 4S. Partner had Axx AJT Txx AQx so we missed a very good slam.

 

edit: Txxx of diamonds, left out an x

It looks like the auction after 3NT might also have been 4♦-P-4♠-P-P-P, or perhaps 4♦-P-4♥-P-4♠-P-P-P.

 

What about a slower auction, my way, for S&G purposes?

 

1♥-P-

2♣-P-

2♠-P-

3♠(sets trumps)-P-

3NT(serious)-P-

4♣(two top clubs)-P-

4♦(diamond control)-P-

???

 

Responder, with three Aces, seems to have enough to bypass 4♠ opposite serious interest. How he does this is another question. I want to answer with that hand, so I'll try LTTC. 4♥.

 

Opener will now not like his stiff club, presumably, and slow heart control. So, I expect Opener to have "told his tale" with a Serious 3NT call and to now suggest a bow-out. 4♠.

 

Responder's hopes were just dashed. He cannot answer Aces. He may very well give up at this point. However, he does have a lot of finesse positions, which are appealing. That being said, the club holding already has been shown. It is really tough to push on here.

 

In other words, I'm not so sure that anyone can get to this slam, let alone that it is all that wonderful. On a diamond lead, which you duck presumably, you end up probably playing for some sort of squeezie thing, maybe a desperate doubleton drop check on route, and ultimately a finesse in one of two suits. Barely over 50%.

[Guest Jlall]

What do you mean not all that wonderful?

 

When you start an analysis with "on a certain lead.." then say over 50 % and reject to mention that on a heart lead you are a claimer, on a club or spade lead you are 75 %, you are not giving a complete analysis. In real life they don't just auto make the right lead.

 

BTW I think it's significantly better than 50 % on a diamond lead, you have some squeeze chances and some chances to just figure out the layout. While no single line is much better than 50 % I think a good declarer will make on a diamond lead like 55-60 % of the time.

[kenrexford]

What do you mean not all that wonderful?

 

When you start an analysis with "on a certain lead.." then say over 50 % and reject to mention that on a heart lead you are a claimer, on a club or spade lead you are 75 %, you are not giving a complete analysis. In real life they don't just auto make the right lead.

 

BTW I think it's significantly better than 50 % on a diamond lead, you have some squeeze chances and some chances to just figure out the layout. While no single line is much better than 50 % I think a good declarer will make on a diamond lead like 55-60 % of the time.

Yeah, true that.

 

That does not change the reality that this seems to be a tough one to bid. Stiffs opposite AQ suits are really tough, and J10's are equally tough to assess.

 

Bash bidding makes this somewhat hopeless. Delicate cuebidding leaves someone at some point making a judgment call that is beyond my pay grade to assess.