2D X knowing they might make it

[benlessard]

[hv=d=w&v=b&n=sakxxhakxdxxcaxxx&s=sjxxhj9xxdqtxcxxx]133|200|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

1♣ (15+)

 

1♦ waiting mostly

 

 

2♦ by west

 

X by north showing 18+ and at least 2 diamonds. (with only 2♦ he should have more like a nice 19pts).

 

 

in MP do you pass ?

 

passing could lead to -180 instead of -200

or to + 200 instead of a partscore.

 

but 2♦X making 3 is also a possibility.

[bid_em_up]

in MP do you pass ?

No.

[jtfanclub]

Yes, at least the way I play it, which sounds very similar to the way you play it as well.

 

Don't like the time? Don't do the crime. There's all sorts of other valid calls opener could make besides X, if he doesn't want partner to leave it in with a balanced 3 count.

 

This is not the same situation as:

 

1♣ 2♦ P P

Dbl P

 

But instead like SAYC's

 

2♣ P 2♦ 3♦

Dbl P

 

Would you seriously consider pulling that?

[ArtK78]

Using these methods, whether to pass 2Dx or to bid is purely a guess. LOTT analysis (which should be fairly accurate given that the high-card values are split approximately 50-50 between the two sides) would lean towards passing - the diamond fit is no greater than 8 cards, and can certainly be less. If it is 8 cards, you don't want to pass. If it is less than 8 cards, you want to pass.

 

I would always pass at IMPs, as -180 is no great disaster. At matchpoints, anything could be right, but if it is right to pass, you get a great score. Might as well go with the option that can produce the best possible result.

 

I don't believe that there is much danger of an overtrick on this auction.

[helene_t]

"At least two diamonds" - does it mean he could also have 4 or 5, or does it mean 2 or 3?

 

Anyway, I pass. ♦QTx may be worth something in defense, I have no offense.