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suit combo, think fast!


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MP, you are in 3NT. You have obvious tricks outside, just this is the critical suit on opening lead.

 

[hv=n=s5&w=s&e=s&s=sj876]399|300|[/hv]

 

LHO leads 2, RHO plays K and fires back the 3. Quick, what do you play?

 

(Maybe this is too easy in problem form, but my opp got it wrong ...)

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Small .

 

LHO maybe leading from H10(9)2 (three cards suit). This will be of higher possibility than playing him leading from 10(9)x2 (3 cards suit). And if he led from a 4 card suit, then any play will succeed as the max opp can take is 4 tricks.

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Why quick? Before I play the first card in dummy I have plenty of time to think about this and other problems.

 

If the suit is 4-4 there is not much I can do (except in the unlikely situation that RHO failed to lead T or 9 holding both of them), so I have to hope the suit is 5-3. Playing the Jack will lose as long as returning a small card by RHO was correct as LHO will now simply pickup the suit, so I play small and hope for a constellation like:

 

[hv=n=s5&w=sqt3&e=sak942&s=sj876]399|300|[/hv]

 

Since you did not say anything about opponent's leading agreements I assume they just use attitude.

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Why quick? Before I play the first card in dummy I have plenty of time to think about this and other problems.

 

If the suit is 4-4 there is not much I can do (except in the unlikely situation that RHO failed to lead T or 9 holding both of them), so I have to hope the suit is 5-3. Playing the Jack will lose as long as returning a small card by RHO was correct as LHO will now simply pickup the suit, so I play small and hope for a constellation like:

 

[hv=n=s5&w=sqt3&e=sak942&s=sj876]399|300|[/hv]

 

Since you did not say anything about opponent's leading agreements I assume they just use attitude.

Ditto. I'll settle for Q - anything - anything.

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I suppose there is a small chance that RHO has AKQx. Must be tempting to overcall with that holding, though. Anyway, if you read the 2 as an honest 4th highest of a 4 card suit, it could still be headed by the ten, perhaps. I expect GIB would play the Jack in a flash.
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A proper answer might conceivably be 'it depends on the auction'... and the appearance of the hands... ie given the auction and our two hands, how probably is it that LHO has led from Hxx... but the reality is that the correct play is going to be low on 99.9% of possible auctions and hands.. losing only to 109xx opposite AKQx, and I gather that we have no side losers.

 

As others posted earlier, the only other logical, and overwhelmingly more logical, holding to worry about is Qxx on your left. Block the suit...play low....

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Yeah the problem seems more complicated than I first thought. I am tainted since I was East and know East's tendencies :). East fails to overcall on AK9xx/AKTxx approximately never, while with AKQx he fails to overcall sometimes (w/o plus factors in additional high cards, shape considerations).

 

The auction was something like 1d-1nt-3nt. (Why south failed to investigate for major fit I don't know, she must be somewhat inexperienced). On the actual hand, East held AKQx. South ducked, there was one more trick that had to be lost later (which doesn't affect choice in this suit, forgot the rest of the hand, still choice between win J, block suit and hope other guy has the side winner). Only 2/9 tables went down in 3nt. Perhaps most Easts just cashed AKQ without thought.

 

So it is a judgment call weighing East's overcalling proclivities along with the likelihood of West choosing to lead from 3 bagger.

 

Is there a best honor for East to play on this combo for greatest degree of success or does it not matter?

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Interesting decision to falsecard with the K. How would you feel if you led low, and partner were to win the J ---- and then chose to switch?
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