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One I kibbed the other day

[hv=d=w&v=b&w=sakjt7654hada94c5&e=s32hkt94dt5caj842]266|100|Scoring: IMP

W...N...E...S

2..P..2..3

3..P..4..P

4N..P..5..X

P...P..5..P

6..P..P..P

 

2 = alerted "strong, almost GF"

2 = alerted "positive, nothing re "

4N = alerted, normal Blackwood

 

Trick 1: 6, 9, Q, A

Trick 2: A, 2, 2, 8

...?[/hv]

 

There were some aspects to the bidding by both sides that I might have done differently, and I may not have come up with the favourable (to declarer) lead given the auction as it went. But that is how it happened.

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It does not look all that tough from here.

 

You play a club to the Ace, pitch a diamond on the heart King, and then finesse the spade, giving up a diamond in the end.

 

If the club Ace is ruff, you are down.

If the heart King is ruff, you are down.

 

But, what other choice do you have?

 

A club lead would have been more interesting. Now, you have no play but to ruff out the third diamond. When you play Ace-and-out a diamond, you will get an interesting play from RHO.

 

If he fires back a diamond, you may well have LHO unable to ruff, clearly indicating the void. If you get back the spade, you will have an interesting question to ask yourself. Why did RHO not lead back a third diamond? If he has the expected 6-7 diamonds, why not give his partner a trump promotion?

 

Of course, you planned for a 3-0 spade split to begin with, so stick to your guns -- it works. The 5-3 diamond split was a fantasy from the start.

 

Nice observation from Fluffy, just noticed. You are not out of luck if the heart King is ruffed (but chances are dwindling). Ducking a diamond, playing for stiff King, works. You also have a remote chance of catching KQ tight. RHO has three spades and one heart. If LHO has the stiff diamond King, RHO has something like Qxx x QJxxxxx Kx and LHO has something like 0 QJxxxxx K QJxxx. That seems too wild for a pass from LHO and for a mere 3 by RHO. More likely might be Qxx x J10xxxx Kxx for RHO and LHO with 0 QJxxxxx KQ QJxx. So, I might try Ace-and-out in diamonds, as well, if the heart King is ruffed.

Edited by kenrexford
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OK -- more nonsense analysis coming. LOL

 

If I were a conspiracy theorist, I might reason along these lines.

 

RHO has a void in spades. He also seems to have a void in diamonds, because one should always lead partner's suit. He did not overcall 2, so he must have the problem hand of six hearts and seven clubs.

 

That gives RHO 3-2-8-0 pattern. A bit conservative, but OK.

 

I can play for that holding and make 6 the easy way. I simply play the spade King and another spade.

 

RHO has no good option other than to lead a diamond. I now run off my spades and catch LHO in a club-heart squeeze.

 

If RHO tries a heart instead, I win the King, ruff a heart, adn then do the same thing.

 

Tada! :P

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Yeah -- I missed that second double of 5. That makes my conspiracy theory more and more plausible.

 

Two voids to my left! Wow!

 

Given that holding, again somewhat strange, we have two equally strange problems to figure out.

 

First, why pass 2?

 

Second, why lead a heart rather than a club?

 

The initial take I had, 0 Jxxxxx 0 KQJxxxx, was based upon a problem of LHO not knowing what 2-X means or what 2-3 means and just deciding to pass, or deciding to pass for some tricky thinking reason.

 

But, that then begs the question of "why lead hearts?" The club lead seems automatic with that hand.

 

So, maybe he is scared to lead clubs? That would give him something like 0 Jxxxxxx 0 KJxxxx. I cannot imagine passing 2 with seven hearts and a side 6-card club suit, though. That seems a tad on the conservative side. But, let's run with it.

 

That would give RHO Qxx Q KQJxxxxx Q.

 

Can I snow-ball RHO? Suppose I play diamond Ace and out a diamond. RHO might want to stop the diamond ruff, not thinking through the hand, and lead a spade, giving me a free finesse, rectification, and a squeeze. But, that seems too obvious to counter.

 

How about combining options, just ducking a diamond at trick three?

 

If RHO wins the diamond and fires back a club, I'll try the heart King, hope it holds, and then finesse spades. Back to the normal line.

 

If RHO wins the diamond and fires back a heart, I'll pitch a diamond, finesse the spade, and then later win the club Ace without fear of a ruff.

 

If RHO wins the diamond and fires back a spade, I'll finesse and claim.

 

If RHO fires back a diamond, I will have a count on diamonds. If LHO turned out to truly have two voids, I will know that either clubs or hearts will not cooperate. If LHO has two voids, then RHO has 8-3 in the pointeds and cannot follow to two hearts and a club. But now I have no chance. If I cross to dummy to finesse the spade, I am dead. Surely a diamond back is obvious, so all that I accomplish with that line is finding out early if a different line would have worked.

 

I cannot simply cash the diamond Ace and find out. That allows diamonds to cash when I throw RHO in.

 

So, what about simply playing for the double-void? That gives RHO two hearts, or one heart and one club, on the side.

 

(A.) Qxx Qx KQJxxxxx 0 or

(B.) Qxx Q KQJxxxxx x

 

Even though he may (and probably will) find the right defense on (B.), that is irrelevant, because my other option fails also.

 

Well, what are my chances with spade-spade-spade as a throw-in when I am wrong about the pattern? That works when RHO is scared to lead clubs. He does not know how many clubs and hearts I have. He will know that I have eight spades, at least one heart, presumably the diamond Ace, and probably Axx in diamonds. So, in his mind I will have:

 

(A.) AKJxxxxx Ax Axx 0, or

(B.) AKJxxxxx A Axx x.

 

With (A.), I have a simple line, he should figure. Cross to the heart King, ditch a diamond on the club Ace, and then finesse spades. However, that line is as simple as the line on (B.) that we already worked out. As before, we may have the same problem of fearing the double-void situation.

 

So, RHO may be "afraid to lead clubs" because he is not sure which rounded-suit lead breaks up the squeeze.

 

However, if he lacks the heart Jack, a heart lead makes the squeeze situation meaningless, as the K10 remains with only the Jack. Or, if he has the heart Jack, the same problem results.

 

This makes me think. Playing a deep game, the heart 9 play gained nothing, really. However, what it did was to assure that RHO, if thrown in with his Qxx in spades as a best-chance play, cannot lead hearts and must kill our squeeze.

 

So, perhaps we screwed up this hand at trick #1. Playing the small heart at trick one from dummy might have allowed RHO to stick in the 8 from J8 or Q8, or QJ8. Had he been so lucky (or perhaps lucky enough to stick in the 7 or 6 using Rule-of-Eleven?), he would have a decent heart return as an option if we played for double void but found something slightly less dramatic (RHO with one club and two or more hearts) and yet left RHO with a problem seeing the pattern and deciding which suit needed attacked to kill the squeeze.

 

I mean, if RHO holds 3361 pattern and returns a club, we might then be able to ditch a diamond on the club, ruff a club, run trumps, and squeeze RHO with the third diamond in hand squeezing RHO out of his heart guard. If RHO can play the 8 from H8x or H8xx, we might be catching a double squeeze, using clubs against LHO, on a club back, if we hold a second heart.

 

Quite a mess for RHO. It seems that the play of the heart 9 was errant.

 

Of course, maybe RHO should see through this ploy. Why not stick in the heart 9 when holding Ax? Don't you want, with Ax in hearts and a club void, to "force" a club return (or make a heart return work just as well)?

 

Well, maybe I have A7. If I think that RHO might have the QJ (which he may have with QJ8), then small will force an honor. I might then play a heart to dummy and then finesse him out of the second top heart, establishing my nine. Of course, I cannot get there, unless, that is, my LHO holds Qxx in spades (something I might be concerned about at trick one), three hearts, and no diamonds. Again, I play low, forcing the Jack from RHO. I try the top two spades, finding out the bad news. I cross to the heart King, LHO following. I lead the heart 10, which RHO must cover, ruffing. I then throw LHO in with his spade Queen. He must lead back a club (or possibly a heart if they are 3-4), and I get two diamond pitches -- brilliant!

 

So, charge one error for the heart nine play. LOL

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Somewhere in amongst Ken's essay I think he earned himself a cigar. As you say, just duck a Diamond at trick 3, to guard against the Heart Queen being singleton. Don't need to read too much into the bidding or lead. They don't always do sensible things, and ignoring these distractions your only real genuine extra chance is to guard against that reasonably likely possibility. This line works whenever South has Heart Q singleton to go with his Qxx of Spades and presumably some Diamond length.

 

Having ducked a Diamond various things could happen:

1) A spade comes back. Finesse, draw trumps and claim

2) A Heart comes back (from North). Play the King. Overruff if necessary then ruff a diamond, eventually crashing the (now singleton) Queen of trumps.

3) A Diamond comes back. Win the Ace, cross to Ace of Clubs, lead King of Hearts aiming to discard Diamond, but overruff then revert to line 2.

4) A Club comes back. Win the Ace and proceed with line 2 (Heart King)

 

I can't see any downsides to ducking a Diamond at trick 3.

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Why do I need to duck a diamond?

That risks North winning the diamond and giving South a club ruff (OK, implausible given the double of 5D).

 

Why not just Ace and another diamond? Yes, there's the same risk, but it's less likely if North has a singleton diamond.

 

If South wins and plays a trump, we are fine.

If South wins and plays a club, we win, ruff a club, ruff a diamond, ruff a club

If South wins and plays a heart, we win in dummy

You can work out the right line if South wins and plays a diamond.

 

the biggest risk is that South has psyched the 3D bid on diamond shortage, and North has forgotten to raise, and South is going to over-ruff the third round. A bit obscure, I know, but we're looking at obscurities.

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Why not just Ace and another diamond?

Whoever wins the second round of Diamonds plays a third round of Diamonds immediately. Dummy ruffs (else you are immediately down), but even assuming that dummy wins that trick he is now out of trumps for finessing out South's Qx of trumps.

 

I don't think that it is particularly obscure simply to protect against South having Heart singleton. I agree that there is a risk of a Club void, but I would agree that that is obscure.

 

It seems it was even more of an interesting hand than I thought when I posted it :P

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