Guest Jlall Posted May 30, 2007 Report Share Posted May 30, 2007 First, you are still assuming that Declarer does not have the spade 10, which is a card leftie, with Ax, cannot know about, If Declarer has K10 in spades left, a spade back does not set the contract -- it assures that the contract makes. No, and no. I'm not assuming he doesnt have it, I'm saying he might not have it, and thus you would take your 100 % play to beat if you have Qx of spades. And no, if you lead back a low spade and declarer DOES have the ten he is not 100 % to make it. Why is he 100 % to make it? You think he will just win the jack and ruff a heart? OK, why cant the layout be: [hv=n=sj9h3dc&w=saxhdcq&e=sqxhdcx&s=skthd7c]399|300|[/hv] In this case the defense will again lead back a low spade, RHO will duck the jack, and when you lead a heart from dummy RHO will pitch. If this is the layout you must pitch a diamond from your hand, not ruff. If the honors are reversed the play would be the same and you need to ruff with the king. That is called a 50/50 guess. Your assertion that declarer is 100 % to make if he has KT is simply wrong. Second, leftie has not shown up with the club Queen. His lead was a third-best pip, won by rightie's 10. The second round was fourth-best, rightie playing the Jack. Now, it is true that he might have a known Queen, if the third club was ruffed with the rightie playing the Queen, but that was not specified (queen or small). When nothing is specified that means everyone followed with small cards. But if that is not clear enough for you, Fred later specified in the thread that LHO did in fact have the club queen. I'll grant that the implication was that leftie has the club Queen, in which case Ax is "not possible." ty However, a "losing option" might be a poor option (playing for a mistake). Playing for a mistake is better than a zero-odds play, obviously. Why are you playing for declarer to make a mistake when you can A) ensure a set if partner has the spade ten by leading a small spade from Hx and :) preserve a guess for declarer (so that he can still make the same mistake) by leading a spade. I guess you are confused since you think he will automatically make if you lead a small spade from Hx here. All you do is lose the chance to beat the hand if you have Qx and partner has AT by playing a club, and you don't gain anything, not even the non-guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenrexford Posted May 30, 2007 Report Share Posted May 30, 2007 Oh and another point, If declarer has KT of spades after a low spade from LHO, jack, RHO should duck with either Qx or Ax since if he plays his honor declarer can claim. If he does this and a trump is led from dummy and RHO pitches a club he STILL has to guess the trump position (discard if LHO has Ax, ruff King if LHO has Qx). So it would still be 50/50 after a low trump back even if declarer had KT of trumps left if declarer did not know where the ace was already. So again, your points are completely wrong, you should think more before you say you are "convinced" a great player got "lucky" rather than just understanding the situation more than you and making a good play. So, if Declarer has K10 left, then either a club back or a spade back leads to the same 50-50 guess, if partner ducks when a spade comes back. Interesting. This creates another layer of inference, as a spade back gains nothing, in theory, over a club back (when Declarer has K10). However, a club back saves, in theory, by eliminating a need for partner to make the right play. But, if Declarer lacks the 10, then a spade back gains when partner has Q10 and no problem, which is possible. If partner has A10, then Declarer has a problem of guessing the spade situation. If he playes the 9, he loses both tricks at the end. But, if Declarer plays the Jack, rightie can then win the Ace but has no good plan. Spade Ace and club out does not work, nor does spade Ace and spade back. But, what if rightie ducks the spade Jack? Now, Declarer cannot fire back another spade and must, per force, play a good (but equally trumpable) heart from dummy. When rightie pitches a club, the same 50-50 guess recurs. So, it seems that the play of the spade Jack also delays the guess. All of this assumes, of course, that the location of the club Queen was known (uncertain) and that leftie would open with a 12-count. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted May 30, 2007 Report Share Posted May 30, 2007 So, it seems that the play of the spade Jack also delays the guess. No, because in this case declarer does not have the spade ten. So if RHO plays "low" on the spade it is actually the ten. If RHO plays the spade ten on the jack it is obvious he cannot have QT so there's no guess. If declarer had the ST then yes, RHO could and should play low with either Hx holding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted May 30, 2007 Report Share Posted May 30, 2007 btw thinking things through is a nice excersize but it's pretty pointless at the table I would use "he tanked therefore he has Qx" as a much stronger clue than any theoretical point because people simply don't think things through this way and if they did they would only do it when they had an honor, not when they had T8 (in which case they would play an auto spade back). When they think they really give away that they dont have T8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenrexford Posted May 30, 2007 Report Share Posted May 30, 2007 btw thinking things through is a nice excersize but it's pretty pointless at the table I would use "he tanked therefore he has Qx" as a much stronger clue than any theoretical point because people simply don't think things through this way and if they did they would only do it when they had an honor, not when they had T8 (in which case they would play an auto spade back). When they think they really give away that they dont have T8. Yeah, that's ultimately true. The technical seems absurd unless there was a major tank. But, it seems to me that with 108 you would attack spades 100%, as a club cannot work. With Qx, or even Ax, you might attack clubs, to force a guess or a proper-technique play, whereas a spade back seems very difficult and possibly horrifying. So, a hesitation may scream Q8, but that seems to obvious for the initial post. If this was Fred G's "favorite" hand, surely it was more than reading a hitch as probably from an honor and not from two small? That sounds too much like stories I've heard by smoking-area stalkers. LOL Hence, a good heated debate into this hand seemed called for. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted May 30, 2007 Report Share Posted May 30, 2007 LOL Hence, a good heated debate into this hand seemed called for. :) we're always down for one of those :huh: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bid_em_up Posted May 30, 2007 Report Share Posted May 30, 2007 I won a whole bunch of ACBL Masterpoints at this Regional and, according to the ACBL web site, I now have 9998.97 Masterpoints. A player needs 10000 Masterpoints to be considered a "Grand Life Master" - the highest rank in the ACBL. Am I the only one who can picture Fred running around a tournament going: "I only need to win 1.03 more masterpoints to make Grand Life Master!!"? :) The thought of it just strikes me as amusing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inquiry Posted May 30, 2007 Report Share Posted May 30, 2007 I won a whole bunch of ACBL Masterpoints at this Regional and, according to the ACBL web site, I now have 9998.97 Masterpoints. A player needs 10000 Masterpoints to be considered a "Grand Life Master" - the highest rank in the ACBL. Am I the only one who can picture Fred running around a tournament going: "I only need to win 1.03 more masterpoints to make Grand Life Master!!"? :) The thought of it just strikes me as amusing. A win in a BBO ACBL thing seems to be worth about 1,2 Masterpoints... I think if fred tries really hard, he could cross the finish line on BBO.... I still say that would be a fantastic publicity stunt.... Go for it FRED... I am sure we could find you a good partner or two to try to help you cross the finish line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtfanclub Posted May 30, 2007 Report Share Posted May 30, 2007 Go for it FRED... I am sure we could find you a good partner or two to try to help you cross the finish line. Aw c'mon...make it fair. Do it in an Indy. That way, lots of people will help him get over the mark, either as a partner, or as an opponent.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted May 30, 2007 Report Share Posted May 30, 2007 Go for it FRED... I am sure we could find you a good partner or two to try to help you cross the finish line. Aw c'mon...make it fair. Do it in an Indy. That way, lots of people will help him get over the mark, either as a partner, or as an opponent.... unfortunately if fred played indys to do it he might kill himself before making it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtfanclub Posted May 30, 2007 Report Share Posted May 30, 2007 unfortunately if fred played indys to do it he might kill himself before making it. It would certainly give him a good feel for the BBO experience, and might entice him to add extra features to this new improves software that's coming out... but yeah, maybe he should wait until he's closer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted May 30, 2007 Report Share Posted May 30, 2007 Or maybe have a 'winner gets to play with Fred when he becomes grand life master' tournament. But if he and Fred don't get enough to put him over (horrors) we do another. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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