hold back,,, or go for it?

[neilkaz]

Trust me my English background is better than yours. :)

If you do not think bidding 5d is being pushed around, go back to school.

 

I agree my spelling on this forum could improve a bit late night. Cheers! And love your bridge comments. I learn.

Who cares whose English is better ? Speak in broken English..toss in a little French or Spanish or Italian..most of us can figure out what you mean.

 

..anyhow..I'd love to see a sim of this hand assuming opener had a very sound (as specified) 4♥ preempt.

 

.. neilkaz ..just trying to learn to play better

[foo]

[Guest Jlall]

Passing does not risk being "stolen from" very much. A direct overcall with our hand has a very high risk of a bad score. =especially= at this vulnerability.

 

Take the percentage action and pass.

ty, much easier when you explain it sir.

[jdonn]

Must have been "fun" bringing this result to teammates -800 or -1100 instead of -420 can cost matches at IMPs.

It was -800 not -1100, no need to exagerate to make your point.

Worse, 4M may not even make!  In which case you are -800 or -1100 instead of being +50 or +100.

If they were down partner would be stronger, and it would be -200 or 500, alternatively west would not be strong enough to double and it would be -100 or 200. In that case bidding would still have been wrong, but again no need to exagerate to make your point.

My estimate is that a direct 5D on this hand over a 4M preempt rates to be the wrong action ~9/10.  And that doesn't take into account the additional negatives due to the unfavorable vulnerability.

The additional negatives when bidding is wrong are also additional positives when bidding is right.

It's a bit frightening that players of jdonn's and mikeh's caliber are thinking otherwise.

Lol you said it not me, but if players you think are of that caliber believe something, you might do well to listen :)

The traditional range for a 4M preempt is 3-8.  Particularly at Favorable vulnerability, it would be unusual for a 1st or 2nd chair 4M opening to be "heavy".

(Yes, I know it was 11 HCP this time.  Methinks EW knew NS would bid on the slightest excuse to avoid being "stolen from".  EW may have set NS up and if so, NS fell for it.  OTOH, Dealer risked missing a slam to do it.)

So what you are saying is that bidding on these hands actually causes our opponents to misbid in general and miss slams. Are these missed slams on other boards being accounted for in your analysis?

[han]

I think it is quite a bit more likely that both 4H and 5D make than that you go for 800 while they don't have game. Note that the double game swing is a bigger swing than the disaster you talk about. So this is just as much a "disaster".

 

You have a guess to make on this hand. You are not going to get them all right, and sometimes you will have to go to your teammates with a terrible score. It is part of the game. So you don't want to pass on hands where the expectation is better when you bid 5D. If you let your fear of a big minus lead you then you won't make the best bids.

 

We can argue about what the percentage call is but it is really hard to argue such a thing without doing a simulation. This isn't easy either because it depends on the hands that RHO would bid 4H with, and how often LHO (and also partner) would make the right decision over 5D.

 

Another option is to look at what some world class players would do with such a hand. They presumably have had many similar hands and have given it a lot of thought. I think I have learned a lot by reading the posts of the (unfortunately too few) world class players who post here.

[cherdano]

I think I have learned a lot by reading the posts of the (unfortunately too few) world class players who post here.

Too true, I should post more often.

[foo]

Josh,

 

1= 5DX here was =supposed= to be -1100. A defensive error allowed NS to "escape" for "only" -800.

 

2= 4M may not make not just because NS are stronger, but also because the hand is a horrible misfit or because the values are in bad places for declarer (The HK offside, etc) despite NS's strength.

No matter how you attempt to "bob and weave" or sugar coat it, overcalling 5D here is simply not likely to work out well and pass here is far more likely to work out well.

 

3= yep, despite our disagreements at times, I recognize you usually know what you are talking about bridge-wise. Don't let it go to your head. You aren't jlall or mikeh yet. Let alone any of the internationalists around here.

[jdonn]

lol wtf

 

1: You mean the defense didn't take all its tricks in an unclear position where no player's shape was known, making a bid work better or less badly than it should in theory? I don't believe it! That never happens!

 

2: If the cards are offside for them they are onside for us, or vice versa. You can't have both sides going for numbers because they lose every finesse!

When your opponent opens at the 4 level, and you are void in that suit with a 7 card suit of my own, is that what you call a horrible misfit?

 

3: Let me do some paraphrasing of the last posts

foo: i think josh and someone else are good despite their opinion on this topic

josh: ok if you think we are good then maybe you should think what we are saying is true

foo: dont get cocky josh you arent THAT good!

Where did that come from...

 

Look, see the last sentence of your second point. You are speaking with a LOT of authority for a position that is entirely subjective, is clearly minority, and has been openly disagreed with by your beloved jlall and mikeh.

[foo]

*sigh* the fact that you espouse such unrestrained aggression as you are here is what makes it clear that you are not evaluating this situation optimally.

 

Since logic doesn't seem to be working...

 

IIRC, you are computer literate enough to program some? Go grab a decent simulation tool, put the two known hands in and let the other 2 be dealt randomly.

Heck you can do it w/ GIB or Jack and not even have program at all.

 

Then overcall 5D at unfavorable vulnerability on all of them and see what happens.

 

EDIT: To heck with it. I'll do the math over the next few days and post the results.

[jdonn]

Since logic doesn't seem to be working...

LOL you have made my day :)

[foo]

Since logic doesn't seem to be working...

LOL you have made my day :)

Give me a few days and I'll post the mathematical analysis and proof

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

 

#1 looking at the 4H opener, the bid is certainly not

mainstream, the bid is not bad given the colors,

but nobody could argue with 1H (you hold a solid

suit and 2 Aces)

Give partner a club single and you are making 6H.

 

#2 In my opinion, bidding 5D vs. passing is close,

and the result (-1100) is rather unlucky, we did

run in super max. 4H opener, having a strong partner,

and on the other hand our partner is broke.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[Guest Jlall]

Since logic doesn't seem to be working...

LOL you have made my day :)

Give me a few days and I'll post the mathematical analysis and proof

Before you do that you better tell us what you're considering a 4H opener is since that directly affects the results of any simulation. I will say you're definitely not the ideal person to do this since you are already biased.

[helene_t]

5♦ wtp. I'm short in hearts so it's my obligation to take action.

[jtfanclub]

#1 looking at the 4H opener, the bid is certainly not

mainstream, the bid is not bad given the colors,

but nobody could argue with 1H (you hold a solid

suit and 2 Aces)

Give partner a club single and you are making 6H.

Seems to me that in little old lady bridge (where you need 2/3 or 3/5 of the top honors to open 2 of a major) that hand is a typical 4♥ opener, yes?

 

I was wondering what the original poster meant by 'solid suit'. Now I know, I think.

[Sambolino]

Seems to me that in little old lady bridge (where you need 2/3 or 3/5 of the top honors to open 2 of a major) that hand is a typical 4♥ opener, yes?

 

I was wondering what the original poster meant by 'solid suit'. Now I know, I think.

 

now that's malicious and ignorant.

 

while 4h may not be everyone's choice it's a practical bid and may cause problems for the opposition. it's harder to play against random preempts. also it's a sound tactic to bid a game and reveal as little as possible info.

[pclayton]

Seems to me that in little old lady bridge (where you need 2/3 or 3/5 of the top honors to open 2 of a major) that hand is a typical 4♥ opener, yes?

 

I was wondering what the original poster meant by 'solid suit'. Now I know, I think.

 

now that's malicious and ignorant.

 

while 4h may not be everyone's choice it's a practical bid and may cause problems for the opposition. it's harder to play against random preempts. also it's a sound tactic to bid a game and reveal as little as possible info.

Maybe, but this opening 4♥ call is part of the reason why 5♦ suffers so bad. It should not be included as a typical 4♥ call for a simulation.

 

The parameters I would set are any 8 card suit with at least two of the top 3 or any 7-4 pattern with the same suit.

 

Perhaps one outside A or K should be allowed, but I wouldn't allow any hand with two aces. x, AQxxxxxx, Kx, xx would be an absolute max, and x, KQxxxxx, xxxx, x would be a min I think.

[jtfanclub]

now that's malicious and ignorant.

Well, I apologize if I have offended you. Perhaps I should have called it a rubber bridge style, not LOL bridge. I certainly didn't mean to offend anybody who was little, old, or a lady, let alone all 3!

 

while 4h may not be everyone's choice it's a practical bid and may cause problems for the opposition. it's harder to play against random preempts. also it's a sound tactic to bid a game and reveal as little as possible info.

 

No comment.

[bid_em_up]

5D is nothing but a WAG*, imo.

 

Have those of you endorsing a direct 5D bid forgotten that you also have a partner?

 

Nobody has even mentioned the fact that bidding 5D directly might easily get raised to 6 by partner, since he will likely be expecting more from you as well, for a real disaster when 5D was making.

 

If declarer actually holds his 3-8 count, as suggested, I would expect partner to balance the majority of the time when it is right to do so. Bidding directly to me is a clear violation of partnership discipline. Unless of course, you and your partner have agreed to play these sorts of direct bids (as mikeh suggests/implies he has).

 

And Mikeh, as a side note, do you or should you alert the 5D call? I think most people would expect you to be holding a much better hand for it. You and your partner are both aware of the fact that you may not have a better hand, aren't the opponents entitled to that information as well? I'm just curious how/if you explain this.

 

What about the times when 4S or 5C are the only making games? How do you explain this to your teammates? Granted, these hands may be few and far between, but they do exist. Partner can easily be 5-3-0-5, can he not? You may even be cold for 6 of a black suit on this holding but can't reach it because of the 5D bid.

 

It was also noted that this is board #2 of a 14 board match. I am not certain I would be willing to risk disaster this early in the match.

 

jmoo.

 

*WAG = Wild Ass Guess.

[Guest Jlall]

And Mikeh, as a side note, do you or should you alert the 5D call? I think most people would expect you to be holding a much better hand for it. You and your partner are both aware of the fact that you may not have a better hand, aren't the opponents entitled to that information as well? I'm just curious how/if you explain this.

oh how these forums have deteriorated.

[bid_em_up]

And Mikeh, as a side note, do you or should you alert the 5D call?  I think most people would expect you to be holding a much better hand for it. You and your partner are both aware of the fact that you may not have a better hand, aren't the opponents entitled to that information as well?  I'm just curious how/if you explain this.

oh how these forums have deteriorated.

?

 

Sorry Justin, if you are attempting to insult me, I simply am not smart enough to understand it.

 

How is asking a serious question considered to be "deterioration"? I am frequently frustrated when a bid such as the 5D call is made with no alert.. I certainly expect more for the 5D call, although possibly mistakenly.

 

So I seriously wish to know, if an explanation is given.

 

If you have a problem with that, I will put it in language you can understand:

 

Tough *****.

[Guest Jlall]

If you have a problem with that, I will put it in language you can understand:

 

Tough *****.

lol.

 

5D is a bid that shows diamonds and a possibility to make 5D, a possibility that it's a good save, just a guess that 5D is our best contract. I can't think of a bid that is less alertable. If you think 5D needs to be alerted you should get a clue. I think posts like yours are completely asinine and take away from discussion of bridge hands. I assumed since you are actually a decent bridge player that your post was essentially trolling, but if you are really just so naive that you think 5D should be alertable I apologize.

[mikeh]

5D is nothing but a WAG*, imo. 

 

Have those of you endorsing a direct 5D bid forgotten that you also have a partner?

 

Nobody has even mentioned the fact that bidding 5D directly might easily get raised to 6 by partner, since he will likely be expecting more from you as well, for a real disaster when 5D was making. 

 

If declarer actually holds his 3-8 count, as suggested, I would expect partner to balance the majority of the time when it is right to do so.  Bidding directly to me is a clear violation of partnership discipline.  Unless of course, you and your partner have agreed to play these sorts of direct bids (as mikeh suggests/implies he has).

 

And Mikeh, as a side note, do you or should you alert the 5D call?  I think most people would expect you to be holding a much better hand for it. You and your partner are both aware of the fact that you may not have a better hand, aren't the opponents entitled to that information as well?  I'm just curious how/if you explain this.

 

What about the times when 4S or 5C are the only making games? How do you explain this to your teammates? Granted, these hands may be few and far between, but they do exist.  Partner can easily be 5-3-0-5, can he not? You may even be cold for 6 of a black suit on this holding but can't reach it because of the 5D bid.

 

It was also noted that this is board #2 of a 14 board match.  I am not certain I would be willing to risk disaster this early in the match.

 

jmoo.

 

*WAG = Wild Ass Guess.

You raised a number of interesting points, altho I do wonder why the side question directed to me alone of all of the 5♦ bidders :P

 

1. I am a strong advocate of involving partner: it is hobby horse I tend to ride a great deal in these fora.

 

2. However, and this is true for how I respond to partner and how my regular partners respond to me: we recognize pressure situations and we further recognize that, over preempts, we stretch (within reason) to bid with shortness in the opps' suit. Thus I would expect partner to hold back.. if he bids slam, I'd expect to have a play.

 

An example would be Kxx Jxxx Kx AQxx.... a hand where you are defending 4♥ and I am making slam if the ♠A is onside, as it rates to be... or are you seriously suggestion that partner reopen??????

 

3. As for alerting... why the f**k should I do that??? My bid is natural, and, as can be seen from the strong support it received so far, it is within the range that opps should expect...

 

4. As for a black suit game... let me think... we hold this hand and partner reopens a black suit.... and we PASS???????????

 

Iff we can make a black suit game, we cannot stop there... unless we had the misfortune to suffer a transient ischemic event or seizure when it became our turn to bid.

 

5. As for disaster.. I think you'd agree that missing a cold game or slam to defend 4♥ would qualify (to your teammates, at least) as a disaster.

 

I have written several times that my game became much stronger, I became a much tougher opponent, when I stopped concentrating on disaster avoidance (in the sense of passing here out of fear) and began bidding as if the glass were half-full rather than half-empty. Indeed, I know I am playing badly when I start to relapse, as I do all too often B)

[bid_em_up]

altho I do wonder why the side question directed to me alone of all of the 5♦ bidders :P

 

1. I am a strong advocate of involving partner: it is hobby horse I tend to ride a great deal in these fora.

 

3. As for alerting... why the f**k should I do that??? My bid is natural, and, as can be seen from the strong support it received so far, it is within the range that opps should expect...

It was addressed specifically to you, because of all the posters who advocated 5D, you are the only one who stated that:

 

1) you used to play it more conservatively.

2) that you have since incorporated it into your partnership bidding that it not be considered a sound bid (as it was before).

3) Therefore, does your partner have information that your opponents do not?

 

This is the crux of what I am trying to find out. Or is it considered the norm to bid with "any possible reason to do so" these days? I did not say it needed to be alerted, I was simply asking a question.

 

4. As for a black suit game... let me think... we hold this hand and partner reopens a black suit.... and we PASS???????????

 

If we can make a black suit game, we cannot stop there... unless we had the misfortune to suffer a transient ischemic event or seizure when it became our turn to bid.

 

Mike, the problem really isn't when partner bids 4S or 5C so much as when he cannot bid either of these over 5D.

 

5. As for disaster.. I think you'd agree that missing a cold game or slam to defend 4♥ would qualify (to your teammates, at least) as a disaster.

 

Sure. And 5D (to me, at least) says this is where we need to play. If the cold game was 4S or 5C, then what? The bottom line is 5 of a black suit is reasonably safe, right? So if partner reopens with 4N, then pulls 5D to 5S, we could infer the 5-5 black suit hand (two places to play). If he reopens with a double, then bids 5S over 5D, we can raise to six with no real worries.

 

I have written several times that my game became much stronger, I became a much tougher opponent, when I stopped concentrating on disaster avoidance (in the sense of passing here out of fear) and began bidding as if the glass were half-full rather than half-empty. Indeed, I know I am playing badly when I start to relapse, as I do all too often B)

It isn't passing out of fear. It is passing because 5D is a bad call, imo.

[han]

I have never seen mikeh write f**k. Refreshing.