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Opposite a weak NT


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[hv=d=n&v=b&s=skxhxxdkxcajxxxxx]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

Partner opens 1NT, 11-14, 4441 or some 5431s permissable

 

RHO overcalls 2C, showing 4+ hearts and another suit (if both majors, hearts will be shorter/weaker)

 

You, for better or for worse, bid a natural and game forcing 3C. You play Lebensohl here.

 

LHO bumps the bidding to 4H, passed round to you.

 

You can assume partner's pass is forcing, in case that wasn't clear.

 

What do you try now?

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I don't really like doubling here, when we have a big fit and the opponents rate to hold a double fit. There are few clues to the lead and if I lead wrong, all hell could break loose.

 

I'll try 5, which should at least have a fair play if East's other suit isn't clubs, or even if it is (in which case 4 is probably cold), and wager that somebody (them or us) can make.

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I would bid 5. Partner made a forcing pass so what will he have? Club support and usually no wasted heart honors (K or Q). Opposite A - A K with club support I am essentially cold, and this is the hand I expect most (not saying he must have it of course). I am the only one who knows I have 7 clubs.

 

The bigger partner's club fit is, the less his controls might be and then we could be off 3 top tricks, but in that case I would hardly think we are killing 4 anyway (like say Qxx xx AQJx KQxx, there is probably a club void and if combined with 5-2 diamond they are cold, and anyway they are almost never down more than 1). Don't forget, your opponents knew they were vul and still bid this way, it hardly pays to assume they are nuts.

 

I pretty much ignorred the part of the problem where partner can have all these shapes with a singleton, but when considering that too I think bidding is absolutely clear. Without that condition I simply feel it is right, but wouldn't get too heated about being disagreed with.

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I would bid 5. Partner made a forcing pass so what will he have? Club support and usually no wasted heart honors (K or Q). Opposite A - A K with club support I am essentially cold, and this is the hand I expect most (not saying he must have it of course). I am the only one who knows I have 7 clubs.

 

The bigger partner's club fit is, the less his controls might be and then we could be off 3 top tricks, but in that case I would hardly think we are killing 4 anyway (like say Qxx xx AQJx KQxx, there is probably a club void and if combined with 5-2 diamond they are cold, and anyway they are almost never down more than 1). Don't forget, your opponents knew they were vul and still bid this way, it hardly pays to assume they are nuts.

 

I pretty much ignorred the part of the problem where partner can have all these shapes with a singleton, but when considering that too I think bidding is absolutely clear. Without that condition I simply feel it is right, but wouldn't get too heated about being disagreed with.

agreed and with 4441 pd surely had doubled 4 Heart :)

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I agree with the 3 and the bid of 5.

 

This is imps:

 

we may make, and they fail: right to bid

 

we may fail but they make: right to bid

 

we may both make: really, really right to bid

 

we may both fail: wrong to bid.

 

Of course, there is more to it than this simplistic analysis, since we have to assign probabilities to the combinations. I suspect that the 'both fail' is the most likely, but even if it were 50% or more, that doesn't mean it's right to defend, since the cost of -1 both ways is 7-9 imps (we are doubling them, but are they doubling us?), while the cost of defending when both make, for example, is 14 imps.

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I would bid 5. Partner made a forcing pass so what will he have? Club support and usually no wasted heart honors (K or Q). Opposite A - A K with club support I am essentially cold, and this is the hand I expect most (not saying he must have it of course). I am the only one who knows I have 7 clubs.

 

The bigger partner's club fit is, the less his controls might be and then we could be off 3 top tricks, but in that case I would hardly think we are killing 4 anyway (like say Qxx xx AQJx KQxx, there is probably a club void and if combined with 5-2 diamond they are cold, and anyway they are almost never down more than 1). Don't forget, your opponents knew they were vul and still bid this way, it hardly pays to assume they are nuts.

 

I pretty much ignorred the part of the problem where partner can have all these shapes with a singleton, but when considering that too I think bidding is absolutely clear. Without that condition I simply feel it is right, but wouldn't get too heated about being disagreed with.

I would bid 5 as well, but I don't think partner's forcing pass shows "club support and no wasted heart honours" because with that he would bid. KQxx in clubs is not a holding that wants to defend 4Hx.

 

I would expect him to have no wasted heart honours to pass (rather than double) but doubt about his club support. I have a couple of extra clubs.

 

This hand isn't completely obvious, because I am slightly the wrong shape. Give me a singleton heart and it's much easier to bid.

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3C then 5C.

 

The comment about opener being 4441 or 5431 is a red herring. Opener with a singleton club will ALWAYS double 4H, so that is not a concern.

 

Mike's list of possible results/outcomes is a good and common IMP analysis showing that it is almost always right to bid game over game when in doubt.

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I think that I would have bid 3NT over the 2 (i.e raise to game denying a stop) just as I would have bid without the interference.

 

I still would probably have been in this predicament now and 5 is probably correct in either sequence. I am quite likely to have 11 tricks, I think. The question is whether they have 3 tricks first.

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Unfortunately you can't bid 3NT denying a heart stop, since that would show a heart stop. You could bid 2NT intending on continuing with 3NT denying a heart stop, but this time there'd be very little chance of partner doubling 4H here, since a lot of the time you'd only have a competitive hand
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Your agreements here are:

 

X = a penalty double of hearts

2D = natural NF

2H = take out of hearts (similar to 1NT 2H X)

2S = natural NF

2NT = Lebensohl, puppet to 3C.

3C/D/S = natural GF

3H = 4 spades & a heart stop

3NT = Not 4 spades & a heart stop

 

2NT followed by passing 3C = competitive

2NT followed by 3D or 3S = invitational

2NT followed by 3NT = a raise to 3NT without a heart stop

2NT followed by 3H = a raise to 3NT with 4 spades & a heart stop

 

4H would probably be natural & to play

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