pclayton Posted May 3, 2007 Report Share Posted May 3, 2007 [hv=d=s&v=n&n=s42hk62daqt75c752&s=sa93haq93dj4ca864]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv] You play 3N (1N - 3N) and get the lead of the ♦9. RHO plays the 4 and you win the J. You fire a ♦ back, 2 on left. You consider hooking the 7, but decide you want to keep you options intact and play the 10. RHO shows out :( Curiously RHO pitches a small heart. How do you proceed? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted May 3, 2007 Report Share Posted May 3, 2007 RHO should have 5 hearts then. Hook the ♥9 now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeh Posted May 3, 2007 Report Share Posted May 3, 2007 The usual inference to be drawn from an early pitch is that it is from a 5 card suit: I think there was a good article on this in a BW a few years back. But, before we leap to the conclusion that RHO has 5♥s, ask yourself what you would pitch from any 4=4=1=4 hands with weak ♥s? Say Q10xx 10xxx x KQxx. Or what you would pitch from KQxx 10xx x KQ10xx. You have to discount the '1st suit = 5 cards' by however you weigh these questions. You might, against indifferent opps, have a clue from the tempo of the pitch... if it were fast, then the odds of the 5 card holding improve (imo), but if it were tortured at all, then there is a high likelihood of the 4=4=1=4 hand and even some of the 4=3=1=5 hand, where he didn't want to discard a potential setting trick from his chunky 5 card suit. I confess that, in the partial vaccuum of the forum, I'd be likely to cash another ♦ to see what RHO pitched... this gives up on some remote endgame positions against LHO, but I can't see them comng true anyway, and maybe RHO will pitch another ♥: if he began with 5, he may conclude that this is best because the odds are that we are 4=3=2=4 or 3=3=2=5 rather than 3=4=2=4. If he doesn't pitch another ♥, then I would still want to be at the table against most non-professional players.. but in the continued absence of table factors, I'd go with ♥A, ♥K and see where I am. In other words, while recognizing the legitiamacy of the 5 card suit rule, I don't think the 2-1 odds I get, via a 1st round hook of the 9, overcome the other distributional possibilities Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted May 3, 2007 Report Share Posted May 3, 2007 I don't like the immediate heart finesse. Even if you know the suit is 5-1 the odds favor the immediate finesse just by 60-40. In other words, if there is a 20% chance that the discard is not from a 5-card suit, it is already break even. Having rejected the immediate finesse, I would duck a club. It has nothing to lose, and may gain whenever they don't find the spade shift, or on the rare endplay vs LHO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted May 3, 2007 Report Share Posted May 3, 2007 I don't like the immediate heart finesse. Even if you know the suit is 5-1 the odds favor the immediate finesse just by 60-40. hmm? Aren't there 4 small singletons that LHO can have and 2 singleton honors? That seems like 67-33 of 5-1s. Plus RHO can have six hearts. So it is a lot more than 60-40 that RHO has the JT. At the table if RHO is 4414 you will know. He will give it away. I don't care how good the opponents are, they will give away 4414. They may have tanked for 2 hours at trick 1 trying to figure out what they're going to discard, but you will know they are thinking about something rather than a routine trick 1 tank. I really think playing a heart to the 9 is the best play here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pclayton Posted May 3, 2007 Author Report Share Posted May 3, 2007 The opponents were idiots. I took the finesse of the 9 too. RHO seemed to be some sort of 4513 / 3514 and the heart hook seemed to be a big favorite. RHO held: QJxx, Txxx, x, QJxx. LHO had: Kxxx, Jx, K98xx, Kx. What I'm half irked at is the fact that he ducked the diamond with zero concern. I think he would grab the K with just about any holding, so unless I'm losing to 8x (!) the hook of the beer seems right. I guess if you don't realize you have a problem, then you don't have a problem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted May 3, 2007 Report Share Posted May 3, 2007 I think 9x is more likely than K98xx for a lead of the 9, especially given that you have chances even if it's K98xx and you play the ten whereas you're just dead if they led from 9x. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pclayton Posted May 3, 2007 Author Report Share Posted May 3, 2007 I think 9x is more likely than K98xx for a lead of the 9, especially given that you have chances even if it's K98xx and you play the ten whereas you're just dead if they led from 9x. I know plus I have other options with 5-1 diamonds. But I knew RHO didnt have the King and I didn't trust my read. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted May 4, 2007 Report Share Posted May 4, 2007 I was also thinking about ♥ to the nine when I read the answers, don't know what I would do at the table. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.