which line of play is better?

[Free]

You get to 6♥ played by South with following hands:

[hv=d=s&v=n&n=s87haj8532dak765c&s=sakj43hq6d3cakj87]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

LHO leads ♦8.

 

I see several lines of play that may work. What is the best?

 

edit: the auction was:

1♠ - 3♦ (nat ; 55+♥-♦ 10-14hcp)

3♥ - 4♣ (sets ; cue with serious slam interest)

4♦ - 4♠ (♠ cue, no ♦ cue (shouldn't bid this way) ; even number of keycards)

4NT - 6♣ (1st round control ♠ - void ♣)

6♥ - pass

Opps quiet.

There's nothing known about opps lead style and carding

[david_c]

I'd definitely want to know opps' lead styles on this hand, even if there's a possibility they might falsecard on lead against a slam. Assuming standard leads ...

 

I'd probably win and play a low trump towards the queen. Opps do best to win the king and return a trump, but that still leaves me with lots of chances and they might not get the defence right anyway.

[Finch]

It depends a bit on the auction - in particular how likely it is that diamonds are falling over.

 

The simple line is

 

- Ace of diamonds, diamond ruff, queen of hearts.

This makes whenever trumps are 3-2, as long as East doesn't have the HK and 5 diamonds, and as long as diamonds aren't 6-1 (if the lead was a singleton you are still OK if the over-ruff is from Kxx trump)

 

I'm not sure why a heart towards dummy should be better than this, unless I am certain that the lead is from shortage: it doesn't really pick up any 4-1 heart breaks other than singleton K onside, and it gives up on the diamond ruff unless they are very kind.

[Halo]

If I assume the eight is most likely a short suit, I'll play trumps (A and Q seems reasonable) then play for a squeeze after trying to drop queen of clubs in three rounds.

[Guest Jlall]

If my opps are even semi capable then I would just ruff a diamond and finesse hearts. If they are bad or just completely honest I would play for diamond shortness.

[Halo]

If my opps are even semi capable then I would just ruff a diamond and finesse hearts. If they are bad or just completely honest I would play for diamond shortness.

I'm interested. Your play may well be best, but what is all this competence stuff? Could you expand a bit.

[Finch]

Here's my reading of what Justin meant:

 

Now we've been given the auction we know that dummy has shown 5+ diamonds and a club void.

 

I haven't thought through the inferences from the auction in detail, but on that basis, decent opponents will probably lead either

i) a trump, if they think there is a lot of ruffing required, or

ii) their better pointy suit, hoping to set up a trick in that suit before the other one is established. There would be a preference for diamonds, both because you are leading through the suit and because opener has shown a stronger hand.

 

The 8 of diamonds, if it's a true card, is either from the Q/J/10 (or the Q10) or from shortage. Good opponents are quite likely to lead from the DQ and would not find a doubleton diamond at all attractive. Bad opponents make what they hope is a safe lead, including doubleton in dummy's suit.

 

All opponents might well lead a singleton diamond, however.

[Halo]

All opponents might well lead a singleton diamond, however.

Therefore I gave up some better ruffing out chances to play two rounds of trumps.

 

Thanks, though I have to admit to not really being convinced. Whole thing seems awfully clever. I am strongly influenced, but yet I will go for trumps and the squeeze. Maybe I just hate being one off so early in the play.