Double or not

[dcvetkov]

[hv=v=n&s=s97hj10xxdaq9xcqj10]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

 

You have this hand and the bidding goes

 

Partner RHO You LHO

1H 1S 2S 3S

Pass Pass ?

 

presumably, 2S cue shows limit raise or better

 

Question is , do you double?

 

-at IMP

- at MP

- bid 4H?

- pass

[helene_t]

I partner's pass is forcing, I'll have to double. Otherwise I pass.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

 

if you play that partners pass is forcing (as I do),

I have to bid, double or bid 4H (I wont be happy with

either decision, but 4H rates to be cheaper), else pass.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[ochinko]

Partner's pass simply means that he has expressed his hand, and has nothing to add.

 

At IMP I bid 4♥ or pass, depending on the mood. If I was vulnerable, I'd bid 4♥ without much thought.

 

At MP I double and lead ♥J.

[Edmunte1]

This isn't a standard pass forcing position, and even a recommended one. Pass is to play here in front of a limit raise. I have a limit raise with only 2 controls, but the 4th trump (of course playing 2NT here as showing a 4+ card fit inv+ is better) and good intermediattes suggests acting. So my choices are:

 

-In IMP's (playing partner for a usual xx AKQxx Kxx xxx/ xx AKQxx xxx Kxx/ Kx AQxxx xxx Kxx) pass seems right. But also bidding 4♥ and risking a 3-4 IMP loss (or win 3 IMP if 3♠ makes :) ) could bring some benefits, if either 4♥ makes or opps take the sacrifice.

-In MP's it's a tough choice, and double it's not the solution (+50/+100 won't change matter much if 4♥ makes). It's important to write in the right column. Probably i would have bid directly 4♥ anyway the first bid (or i'll do it confident now) and hope this either makes or opps will take the sacrifice

[inquiry]

I agree with Edmunte1, this is certainly not a forcing pass situation if the cue-bid was limit raise or better. If it was GF, of course pass is forcing.

 

You are a limited hand, you have described your values -- in fact if limit raise is your minimum, you have a minimum minimum (only 10 hcp, badish distribution, and no spade stack). Pass is 100% and to consider anything else seems to violate the principle that once you have limited your hand with shape and distribution, further major decision are left up to partner.

 

Another problem here is that double shows EXTRA values on this auction. In principle your hand is unlimited the way you are playing. How in the world is partner ever to go right if you double, if you can have this hand, or some monster like AQJ KJxx Axxx Qx.

[Apollo81]

Pass should be obvious here. This is not a forcing pass situation.

[pclayton]

Pass is not forcing. I'll pass at IMPs, but I think I need to double at MPs.

[skjaeran]

Pass at all forms of scoring. If opps were vul I'd probably double at MP's.

[han]

Partner's pass was NF of course, and I'm passing.

[Joe de Balliol]

Pass at IMPs [partner's pass was NF], double at MPs.

[Guest Jlall]

Why do we need to X at MP? Optimistic estimating would give us 2 tricks, we're hoping partner for his pass has 3 tricks and that we can convert our 50 into 100? Sometimes even in MP it's the opponents hand and you just have to let it go.

[pclayton]

If I'm qualifying then I agree that I can pass. I'll take my average minus and try to do better on the companion board.

 

But if I'm trying to do well in the event, I think I need to double. I'm trusting my pard more than the opps here. If they score up -530, I'm turning a 25% board into a 5% board., and I think we have the balance of strength. I think this was our board for +140.

 

I don't agree with a lot of Woolsey's theory on these things, but I do here. If you think there is a reasonable chance they are making 3♠, you should bid 4♥ and give up the -100 x'd.

 

I can't afford to let this go for -2 undoubled (-100), and even -1 gets a few matchpoints back with the pairs that don't double 3♠ and the pairs that get to defend 4♠.

[awm]

Hmm at MP I think this is a clear pass. At IMPs it's close between pass and 4♥.

 

I expect that most of the time, 3♠ will fail by one trick and 4♥ will fail by one trick. Suppose it's something like:

 

(1) Most often, both 3♠ and 4♥ are failing. In this case double is slightly better than pass which is substantially better than bidding. At MP, doubling will help my score slightly (but +50 into +100 usually isn't a huge number of MP). At IMPs, doubling wins 2 imps and bidding game loses 3.

 

(2) Occasionally, 4♥ is making and 3♠ is down one. In this case, at MP doubling will improve my score slightly and bidding 4♥ gets me a top. At IMPs, doubling wins 2 and bidding game wins 9.

 

(3) Sometimes, 3♠ is making and 4♥ is failing. In this case, at MP doubling gets me a zero, bidding 4♥ will improve my score. At IMPs, doubling loses 9 and bidding game wins 3.

 

So the point is, at IMPs we only need game to make 25% of the time for us to benefit from bidding game (rather than passing). Bidding game generally wins 9 when game makes and loses only 3 when both 4♥ and 3♠ were failing. Even if opponents double and set one (and a double at IMPs is far from clear) it's only lose 4. Additionally, sometimes the opponents will bid 4♠ on similar reasoning (if 4♥ makes, it's sure to be a cheap save, if 4♥ fails and 4♠ is only down one it's only a small loss). So even if 4♥ is failing and we bid it, we might end up getting a plus score on defense.

 

At MP scoring we have to do what's right the majority of the time, which is pass or double. But double is such a disaster when it's wrong and only helps a little when it's right, so I would tend to pass.

 

Basically at IMPs, if game makes 25% of the time we should bid it. Even if game makes less than 25% of the time it's probably okay to bid it, because we have to factor in the possibility of a small win when 3♠ was making or a small win when opponents bid 4♠ over 4♥. At MPs, we need "game making" plus "3♠ making but 4♥ down one" to be at least 50% probability for bidding to be right.

[jdonn]

If I'm qualifying then I agree that I can pass. I'll take my average minus and try to do better on the companion board.

 

But if I'm trying to do well in the event, I think I need to double. I'm trusting my pard more than the opps here. If they score up -530, I'm turning a 25% board into a 5% board., and I think we have the balance of strength. I think this was our board for +140.

 

I don't agree with a lot of Woolsey's theory on these things, but I do here. If you think there is a reasonable chance they are making 3♠, you should bid 4♥ and give up the -100 x'd.

 

I can't afford to let this go for -2 undoubled (-100), and even -1 gets a few matchpoints back with the pairs that don't double 3♠ and the pairs that get to defend 4♠.

I think there are three problems with what you are saying.

 

One is that you are getting about 25% if they make. Maybe they make 4 even, or maybe 4♥X is going down elsewhere. I put the estimate at ranging somewhere between 25% and 50%, on a lucky day occasionally doing much better when the opponents miss game. But of course if you double and they make, your 5% estimate is optimistic.

 

The second is that even if they are down you probably just converted 50 into 100, the matchpoint increase will not be so great. I could at least see taking a chance with a bigger upside.

 

And the third is that you have to take huge risks to win a matchpoint event. How many times have you heard anyone say they won because they took big risks to increase their score every chance they got? No, the winners always say the same three things. We bid our games, we took our tricks, and we received lots of gifts.

 

An easier pass I rarely did see. I have bid my hand precisely and have no surprises for anyone. There is nothing more for this hand to add. Thinking is an overbid.

[dcvetkov]

I agree that partner pass is not forcing. I dont think I agree however that pass is so clear cut. That hand had some flaws, both offensively and defensively, like spades are breaking 2-2 probably, which is bad, and too many heart which mean not many heart tricks cashing, but you hate opponents stealing.

 

However, we have nice intermediates and opponents are outgunned in MP.

I think in MP we have to protect out +140 with dbl. 4H is unlikely to make due to our flat hand, and minimum, but we can bet +50 will be a poor score, and while 100 may not seem that much, it may be difference between 20% and 50% board. And on hands where we get 300, its a top and that not that unlikely. And occasional -530? Yes, you have to learn with them...No -530s, not doubling enough.

 

In IMP, its not so clear, and pass is majority action of choice but, the big winner here is +300 and +500 when we dont have a game. Impossible? Maybe. I just dont belong to the camp you should always automatically pass at IMP, when it feels right to dbl and odds favour it, it usually is.

 

[hv=n=sxxhakxxxdjxxcaxx&w=skxxxhqxxdkxxcxxx&e=saqjxxhxd10xxckxxx&s=sxxhj10xxdaq9xcqj10]399|300|[/hv]

 

On this actual hand, declarer made because defense screwed up and never opened diamonds. And this is the worst case scenario, both kings well placed, and clubs 3-3 and defensive error.

Some other day minor suit aces will be switched or at least one of them and then we are looking at +300- 500 profit, and East West did not did anything wrong bidding to 3 level with 9 trumps.

[cherdano]

On this actual hand, declarer made because defense screwed up and never opened diamonds. And this is the worst case scenario, both kings well placed, and clubs 3-3 and defensive error.

Some other day minor suit aces will be switched or at least one of them and then we are looking at +300- 500 profit, and East West did not did anything wrong bidding to 3 level with 9 trumps.

Some other day, dummy will hold some shape and not Qxx in our trumps suit but somewhere useful, and opponent's shape in the minors won't be mirrored...

[jdonn]

On this actual hand, declarer made because defense screwed up and never opened diamonds. And this is the worst case scenario, both kings well placed, and clubs 3-3 and defensive error.

Some other day minor suit aces will be switched or at least one of them and then we are looking at +300- 500 profit, and East West did not did anything wrong bidding to 3 level with 9 trumps.

Some other day, dummy will hold some shape and not Qxx in our trumps suit but somewhere useful, and opponent's shape in the minors won't be mirrored...

Exactly, trade one of east's diamonds for one of west's clubs and see what it gets you. And that's even with them having wasted honors in both majors.