1435, do you act?

[Flame]

I thought the double is obvious but after reading ulf i think his point make sense and im not sure this is the so obvious anymore. I think if someone will run a simulation you will find that there is more then 50% of misfit here.

[whereagles]

Not sure what the simulations would say, but one thing is certain: if you want to act, do it before opps exchanged information and at the lowest level possible. To dbl 2nd round violates these two principles and is bound to get you into trouble oh-so-often.

[Codo]

I don´t buy yet that double is clear cut:

 

What hand types do they have?

 

1.Lets assume that opener has a one suiter. In this case our double does not help us in any way. He will bid spades again, so after 1 Spade pass 1 NT pass 2 Spade, pd will know, that we have more or less this hand, no difference between X and pass.

 

2. Lets assume opener has a two suiter and the bidding goes 1 Spade pass 1 NT 2 any pass pass. What did I miss by passing? Do I belive, that the bidding will be more successful after 1 Spade pass 1 NT x? Why?

 

3. Opener has a balanced 12-14 and passes 1 NTX If the hand belongs to us, pd can pass too and we may collect 200 instead 100. We gave away the distribution of our hands, so maybe we will even get -380 instead of + 100.

 

4. Opener has a strong balanced hand. Now I have real trouble after a double. PD has 4-5 spades, they have the majority of the strength, we have no fit. No good idea to double.

 

Of course there are hands where X will win too, but I am not yet convinced that it will win imps in the long run.

 

I would like to see a simulation or a bridge brower result too, but this is maybe hard to be done.

[awm]

To answer Codo's questions:

 

1: If opener is rebidding spades, partner will not know that we have this hand. Suppose the auction goes 1♠-pass-1nt-pass-2♠. The opening side's spade fit could easily be anywhere from six cards (6-0) to 9 cards (7-2). If partner holds some moderate number of spades (say 3) he has no idea whether opponents are playing in a 6-0 or 6-1 (where he should definitely pass) or in a 7-2 (where he almost surely should bid). The double clues partner in as to our spade shortage. Partner also in the dark about our values.. say after 1♠-pass-1nt-pass-2♠ partner has a moderate hand with five good spades. He can see 3-4 tricks on defense, but it takes six tricks to beat 2♠ and if both opponents are on a maximum for their bids there is no guarantee partner will provide the remainder. The double of 1nt allows the spade-holder to double for penalty.

 

2: If opener has a two-suiter, it could easily be that both sides have a big fit. The 1NT bidder could have all sorts of support for opener's second suit. Or it could be that the hand is not much of a fit. We want partner to compete in the first case, and to double if he has good values in the second (opponents could easily have 18 hcp between them or even less, given how light people open two-suited hands these days). Doubling 1nt helps partner make these decisions. If we passed 1nt, we might be able to double back in later, but this doesn't necessarily promise length in opener's second suit (making it hard for partner to leave the double in on a moderate hand with 3 cards in opener's second suit). Also if opponents have a real fit then doubling in at second turn may be at the three-level, and it's always potentially more dangerous.

 

3: Yes sometimes the opponents will make 1NTX, or we will run somewhere and get hammered. On the other hand, suppose the auction had gone 1nt (12-14)-pass-pass. How many of us would not want to balance with this hand? We could have the majority of the strength. We could have a heart game. Honestly the auction give is not that different. It's also quite possible that opponents have a big fit in diamonds that they have missed (say opener is 5-3-3-2 and responder is 2-2-6-3). If we sell to 1NT it could easily make. If we double 1NT, partner will bid hearts and opponents may not even compete to 3♦ (or may not make it if they do).

 

4: Yes if opener has a strong balanced hand we can be in trouble. But fortunately, more and more people open 1nt with strong balanced hands including a five-card major. Opener's odds of having a really huge balanced hand just aren't that good with us holding 12 hcp. And it's still quite possible we have an 8-card fit somewhere and a good sacrifice at the two-level against a game the opponents can probably make.

[whereagles]

3: Yes sometimes the opponents will make 1NTX, or we will run somewhere and get hammered.

getting axed in 2-something is better than in 3-something ^^