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MP's: 1H-3H


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You have loser:

2

2

2 and the chance to lose 1 more.

To make 4H you need partner to cover at least 3 of them.

He has 2-5 HCP and 4 . So you need P to have some KQ or QQ(K well placed) in the minors 4 low and 2-2. I would estimate the chances are less than 20%.

This is not good enough for MP's and not even good enough at IMP's.

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I do not think partner should make this preemptive bid with 3433, so he should have a doubleton (or singleton) somewhere and that place is overwhelmingly likely a minor.

 

It is too pessimistic to say we have two heart losers opposite 4 card support, even opposite 5432 of hearts we are >50% to pick up the suit as long as we have a dummy entry. Opposite Txxx we are >50% with no entry, and even better with an entry.

 

So I count 3 or 4 losers, I probably need partner to cover 1 loser for me.

 

Further note: The opponents' silence increases the odds partner is on the top rather than the bottom end of his bid.

 

Conclusion: Easy 4 at any form of scoring under any conditions.

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Well, partner probably isn't 3433 (usually people don't preemptive raise with that hand). So partner has a doubleton somewhere, if not a singleton. Let's give partner Kxxx and no other values. Some hands:

 

xxx

Kxxx

xx

xxxx

 

xxxx

Kxxx

xxx

xx

 

Opposite either of these you will make 4 if the heart suit breaks. Basically you have three minor suit losers and two ruffs.

 

Of course it is possible partner doesn't have the K, but it's also possible partner has some minor suit king:

 

xxx

Txxx

Kx

xxxx

 

It seems like all these hands basically make game when hearts are 2-2 and have some rather poor chances on a 3-1 heart break.

 

I'd go with "bid game at IMPs, pass at MPs."

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A good rule of thumb is to imagine a perfect minimum.

The Perfect Minimum rule, as developed by Ely Culbertson for slam bidding, states that you may invite a slam if you can imagine a perfect minimum that makes the slam cold. Your example hand seems marginal for an invitation to game.

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[hv=n=sjxxxh87xxdxckxxx&s=sahaj9xxdajxxcaxx]133|200|[/hv]

Thanks for the answers.

These are both hands. I passed 3.

Hearts were 2-2 and LHO did lead K.

I took A, ruffed a , came back to my hand with A and ruffed another . Now I played to my A (LHO dropping the Q) and ruffed another overruffed by RHO with T.

RHO played a ruffed by me.

I played for LHO's K, who continued with another ruffed by me.

I played all my 's, keeping J and Kx on the table. Opps misdefended by keeping both a honour.

Making 3+2 for an absolute 0.

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I just came in here.

 

Left to my own choices I don't play 1H-3H as preemptive. Playing normal raises, I would raise 1H to 2H with this hand (four trump and a stiff have to be worth something), after which 4H is obviously easy. I'll have to ask my Bergen friends if they would bid 3H with that hand. It's true it has 2-5 hcps.

 

I looked at the big hand and thought: If partner has Kxxx of trumps and nothing else, how am I making this? He might also have the Q of spades, which won't help at all, or the Q of clubs which may or may not help, or the Jack of clubs which won't. So I passed.

 

Seems as if the meaning of 1H-3H needs clarification beyond 2-5 hcps. The strong vote for raising to 4 also seems to assume that hcps and four trump are not in themselves enough for 3H. If this reservation is an accepted part of Bergen raises, I might feel better about them.

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Fred has posted a good guideline for making a preemptive raise. Try to always have it include some "goodie" for partner. This could be a singleton, a trump honor, or a side ace or king. So some garbage like Qxx xxxx xxxx Jx should not qualify. This keeps partner from ever being completely disappointed when you put down dummy.
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