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responding to TO double after WJS


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3 is enough: I see no fractional upside to the hand... if anything, it is perhaps worth only 2.88... but fractional bidding is an idea whose time has not yet come.

 

Partner will (usually) bid on if game is good, and sometimes when it ain't.

 

Anyone use 2N as lebonsohl here? Not suggesting that this is the hand for it, but if it were available, then all the more reason to stay with 3, since with purely competitive interest, one would bid 2N then 3 (I assume)

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3H. Playing there and taking ten tricks is a significant danger but I think 4H on my own requires too much faith.

 

I am not so worried about a spade to the ace and a spade back ruffed. This could happen but QJT9xx on my right is actually a better holding for 2S than Axxxxx or even the unlikely (not enough points to go around) AQxxxx. With QJT9xx he can reasonably expect to lose two spades and take four on offense but take no tricks on defense. QJT8xx may well work also, and a gamble with QJTxxx is not out of the question. I think clubs are the bigger danger. With my highs, pard's highs, rho's spades, it is very possible the defense will begin with AK and another club. If partner and rho each hold two clubs I won't like this. If I were confident partner had a stiff club I think I would give 4H a shot. If partner holds AQxx of hearts I can hook the Q and cash ace, hope for 3-2, leave the last heart out and start a cash and ruff in the side suits. Not that far-fetched. Also not what you would call a sure thing.

 

Anyway, I bid 3H. Partner, with a stiff club, the ace of spades, and decent hearts, might go 4 and I might make it.

 

By the way: What's FTL?

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3 is enough: I see no fractional upside to the hand... if anything, it is perhaps worth only 2.88... but fractional bidding is an idea whose time has not yet come.

 

Partner will (usually) bid on if game is good, and sometimes when it ain't.

 

Anyone use 2N as lebonsohl here? Not suggesting that this is the hand for it, but if it were available, then all the more reason to stay with 3, since with purely competitive interest, one would bid 2N then 3 (I assume)

I agree with this, although I put the hand's value at closer to 2.98 =)

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I keep meaning to read that book. I hadn't realized it had acronymed. Most decisions in life and in bridge have to be made with insufficient information. As far as LOTT is concerned, in this case it is more or less unusable. I don't know how many hearts we have combined (8 probably) I don't know how many spades they have combined (7 or maybe 8), I guess they have at least 8 clubs combined, but maybe 9. So the trick total is approximately, on average, the trump total and I can only guess at the trump total which may or may not be the trick total. I have not studied FTL yet but generally I am skeptical. I am a mathematician and this gives me a healthy respect for the limitations of formulas. The area of a circle really is Pi* r^2, but this only helps if you are able to determine r.
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What's the vulnerability? I like my king of spades and AK diamonds much more for defense since parter has already shown both majors. I think I'll be the lone doubler esp white v red and red v red - I don't want to see dummy drop with something like Q10xx Axx QJxx Ax after I bid 3 and my lho doubles me.
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