Guest Jlall Posted March 2, 2007 Report Share Posted March 2, 2007 I still get nightmares thinking about this hand... [hv=n=saxhjt987dxcqt8xx&s=skxhkqxdkj8xxcajx]133|200|Scoring: IMP4H by south after an admittedly heavy 1N[/hv] LHO led the diamond queen and RHO shifted to the club 5 (1 lower spot out). Your play? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted March 2, 2007 Report Share Posted March 2, 2007 LHO seems to have a singleton, so I'll play RHO for a singleton as well. ♣A, heart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted March 3, 2007 Report Share Posted March 3, 2007 If they were playing double dummy, best chances are playing low now. This problem is similar to when you have to play a game with 2 lines: 1 needs an opponent mistake and the other a 10-15% position, those are worst problems for me because chances of opponents making a mistake are impossible to calculate even after the deal, so you can't learn from deep analysis. Given said that, I'll play low only against players who I rate good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dake50 Posted March 3, 2007 Report Share Posted March 3, 2007 Should opponents play talk me out of the C finesse? I think not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pclayton Posted March 3, 2007 Report Share Posted March 3, 2007 Inconceivable RHO is shifting away from the King; he doesn't know the location of the J. Better to hope the lead is stiff and RHO has the ♥A. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted March 3, 2007 Report Share Posted March 3, 2007 Inconceivable RHO is shifting away from the King; he doesn't know the location of the J. Better to hope the lead is stiff and RHO has the ♥A. Even if there is a 0 % chance of a shift from the king (I agree), isn't it a question of doubleton vs stiff? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pclayton Posted March 3, 2007 Report Share Posted March 3, 2007 Inconceivable RHO is shifting away from the King; he doesn't know the location of the J. Better to hope the lead is stiff and RHO has the ♥A. Even if there is a 0 % chance of a shift from the king (I agree), isn't it a question of doubleton vs stiff? Great hand. Wish I would have spent more than 30 seconds on it 1st before I blurt out my thought. Come to think about it - if RHO has the ♥A, the suggested defense is to wait a round or two before the club shift as the fence builder. So, if you respect RHO, you should duck the club I suppose. However, with only one club spot lower, the odds of a doubleton a priori are pretty small. Gack - I suppose some of the nightmare-inducing aspects of this hand are when RHO shifted from xx5. Here you have to fly with the ace to block the suit, which also pays off when the shift is a stiff..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted March 4, 2007 Report Share Posted March 4, 2007 At the table I ducked and RHO had a singleton. I really had trouble sleeping after this hand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helene_t Posted March 4, 2007 Report Share Posted March 4, 2007 My choice would be to step up and play a small trump from the hand. Just in case LHO has Axx of trumps and holds up the ace for fear that his pd has the king stiff or KQ. (Experts, please don't laugh, I'm not playing in the same kind of events that you are). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted March 4, 2007 Report Share Posted March 4, 2007 Even if there is a 0 % chance of a shift from the king (I agree), isn't it a question of doubleton vs stiff? My immediate reaction was to play for a doubleton. After doing the math, it seems clear to me that playing for a singleton is better odds. The number of holdings in clubs are the same. However, we know diamonds split 1=6, and we have to assume RHO has the ♥A (otherwise our decision doesn't matter). So assuming a singleton, the "known" cards divide 5=8 among the defenders (LHO having no ♥A, one diamond, 4 clubs, RHO having ♥A, 6 diamonds and one club) as opposed to 4=9. The first is more than twice as likely (9/4 times as much, to be precise). [To compute this, you have to compare the number of ways to distribute the remaing 13 card 9=4 or 8=5 among the defenders.] So if you play RHO for a doubleton, you are assuming he would shift twice as likely to a club doubleton than to a club singleton. That seems far-fetched. Arend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted March 4, 2007 Report Share Posted March 4, 2007 diamonds were not 6-1 btw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted March 4, 2007 Report Share Posted March 4, 2007 diamonds were not 6-1 btw If diamonds are 5-2, that changes the odds from "singleton 9/4 times as likely" to "singleton 8/5 times as likely". All a priori, of course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted March 4, 2007 Report Share Posted March 4, 2007 diamonds were not 6-1 btw If diamonds are 5-2, that changes the odds from "singleton 9/4 times as likely" to "singleton 8/5 times as likely". All a priori, of course. and Kxx/Kx? Impossible to calculate with math you have to use your judgement. I think my judgement of these possibilities was off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted March 4, 2007 Report Share Posted March 4, 2007 diamonds were not 6-1 btw If diamonds are 5-2, that changes the odds from "singleton 9/4 times as likely" to "singleton 8/5 times as likely". All a priori, of course. and Kxx/Kx? Impossible to calculate with math you have to use your judgement. I think my judgement of these possibilities was off. Sure. I was showing the math mostly because I was surprised how much more likely a singleton than a doubleton is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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