A Small Favour

[G_R__E_G]

I've been my local club's webmaster for the past 2 years (ever since I decided to create a website for us) and I've also recently become a director as of last month I've taken on managing the club as well. I have a very full-time job, a French-Canadian wife who needs a lot of my attention (if you know what I mean :P ), four kids, several pets as well as other hobbies and therefore I don't have a huge amount of time to invest on working on the site so please don't be too critical if you wish to critique the site itself.

 

I've decided to try my hand at writing some instructional deals that I've called "Lesson Hand of the Month" that I am posting on the site. While I'm a very competent club player I'm certainly not the expert that many of the readers of these forums are; hence the favour. Would a few of you be so kind as to have a look at what I've posted and give me some honest feedback. The other thing I'm really hoping for is that if I happen to make an error in my analysis I'd really appreciate if one of you could spot it before one of my club members does. The address for my site is www.midlanddbc.com . Your welcome to post feedback here or e-mail me through the "contact us" link on the site. Thanks, any assistance is greatly appreciated.

[Guest Jlall]

I read your article, I think the ace is the right play.

 

I'm not sure where you get the number that it is 80-90 % to be a doubleton. There are 3 possible doubletons (75, 73, 72), but you must remember restricted choice on your right and divide this by 2. RHO could play either honor, but if it was Q87, RHO must play the king. Another way to look at it is 2 possible H87s and 3 possible doubletons. There is also the possibility of stiff 7 (divided by 2 again). the H87 cases are more likely than the doubleton cases individually, but there are more cases where it's a doubleton so there's probably a slight mathematical likelihood that the lead is a doubleton. I think 80-90 % is far off as I wouldn't consider a doubleton lead more or less likely than a Qxx lead. But then you have to remember that you can make 100 % of the time the lead is from H87, and only 25 % (as you noted) when the lead is a doubleton. This gives a huge edge to playing the ace at trick 1 and it is no longer even close.

 

You imply (but do not state directly) that declarer misplayed the hand and the reason given is that he took his eye off the ball but it seems like his play was correct. If you wanted to use this hand as an article I would remove the statement about 80-90 % and that it certainly rates to be a doubleton lead, and I would put more emphasis on the fact that you can only make on the doubleton lead when LHO has both aces (or when LHO has a stiff spade to go with his doubleton club, unlikely but in that case your play becomes irrelevant as well).

[Finch]

You asked for comments..

 

You've considered the various lead scenarios and your response to them (win the ace of clubs, play a spade; duck the ace of clubs and play a spade). You've missed out a third line, which is to win the ace of clubs and immediately cash three rounds of diamonds, discarding a club from hand. Your trump pips are sufficiently good that if 3 rounds of diamonds stand up, the contract is now guaranteed (unless hearts are 7-1).

 

This line is at least as good as the suggested approach of ducking the club lead: the duck ONLY works if

i) LHO has indeed led a doubleton

ii) LHO has both the outstanding aces (otherwise RHO can continue with a second round of clubs and has an entry to give the ruff; RHO's second club will be suit preference between the red suits so West shouldn't go wrong if he has the SA).

 

However, 3 rounds of diamonds ONLY loses when

i) LHO has a doubleton diamond, or

ii) RHO has a doubleton diamond, ruffs in low on the third round and then they take a club ruff they couldn't otherwise have done.

 

The above is a matter of fact, and I think your recommended line is incorrect.

 

A matter of opinion is the relative likelihood of a doubleton lead, a singleton lead or a lead from Q87. This depends slightly on the leading style of your opponents, but many good players are not very keen on doubleton leads. Given the choice between low doubleton in one suit and Qxx in another, most people would lead their Qxx suit. On this hand, I don't think many people would actually choose to lead a club rather than the Jack of diamonds, while a singleton club is a much more attractive lead.

 

p.s.

1. The hand is quite hard to read with the background you have in place.

2. "Your not out of danger yet though" should be "You're not out..."

[Guest Jlall]

good point Frances I was thinking so much about the clubs did not even think about the diamonds :P

[G_R__E_G]

good point Frances I was thinking so much about the clubs did not even think about the diamonds 

 

As was I (I was declarer). I knew there was a reason I posted this here. :P

 

You'd also mentioned the skill level of the opponents coming into play as to what to read the club lead as. That was the main reason why I was so certain it was a doubleton - I know the guy. As Frances points out there is another way to take care of the clubs - the main thing is declarer can't ignore the possibilty of a defensive ruff.

 

Thanks for the help - I'll change it (the background too, although it's quite clear on my system).