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accept the transfer? (2)


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AKJ53

---

Q10865

1097

 

unfavorable, MPs

 

pass-(pass)-1-(2)

2-(4)-???

If I'm feeling cute, I go Stripe Tailed Ape on this one. Otherwise, I pass.

 

I'm already trying to decide if I'm going to sacrifice over 6 or not (wrong vul for it). I'll be very happy with -480.

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A boring 4 bid. Even tho this may be terribly wrong, the odds favour us escaping. LHO will not usually be able to double (unless he holds Q10xx of trump, in which case this will be ugly). It's not that I expect to make, altho weirder things have happened: on a perfect day partner holds Qxxx xxx AJx xx, but I'd rather defend 5 than 4. I am not at all worried that they are bidding slam... not because it is impossible but because it is highly, highly unlikely. The 'cute' double rates merely to lose 5 or 6 imps on a good day and 14 on a bad one.
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Strangely on this hand I'd be much more concerned about the tap than on the earlier hand where I had singleton heart. The issue is that if partner has three hearts and only three spades, I can be tapped out pretty easily. I think at unfavorable I'd have passed this one. This is especially clear if we have some way to make a mixed raise in our methods (i.e. either 3 directly or some other bid would show 4 spades and a decent hand) since the tap is much more dangerous opposite three spades than four. There's also a possibility that hearts break 4-0 (RHO doesn't have to have five) in which case both contracts may fail, whereas if I had a heart then the break can't be too bad.
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Too likely a D trick gets lost in defense (or a Club if DK CQ switched). Very likely an urgent tempo lost on chosen return after winning 1st spade. Don't risk opposing game swing, bid 4S. Maybe THEY have an urgent tempo play to prevent losers going on long D.
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4, but not surprised if there is a big number or a lot of IMPs riding on this.

 

I just can't pass this.

did I misread? I thought the problem said unfavorable, matchpoints.

 

dhl

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