Simulation: Do you balance? 1S-P-P-?

[jdeegan]

:) I generated 100 hands using a loose screen and Pavlicek's random generator. From this I winnowed it down to 49 hands that fit the bidding. As is often the case with forum hands, the choice between alternatives (passing or 2♣ in this case) was fairly close. According to my (admittedly imperfect) analysis, bidding 2♣ was a winner 26 times and a loser 15 times with eight cases essentially even. 2♣ was a big winner five times (club and NT games) and a big loser five times (three heart games).

 

Observations:

1) wide variety of outcomes - no one or two consistent themes

2) the big swings are about even

3) better to balance with 2♣ against strong club systems and WJS opponents

4) worse to balance against old fashioned Eastern Scientific players who open 1♠ with heavy two suited hands

5) on about one third of the hands' outcome depends on skill of players - better to balance vs weaker players - poor play of 1♠ less a factor than opponent's poor competitive bidding and defense versus your contract. Complicate the hand against lesser opponents.

 

One potential double game swing hand showed up.

[hv=d=w&v=b&n=saj102ha75d3c109832&w=skq986hj10864dakck&e=s3hq932dq987642c7&s=s754hkdj105caqj654]399|300|Scoring: IMP

1♠-P-P-2♣

[/hv]

 

Would you find the stiff king of clubs offside? Or the diamond ruff versus 4♥?

[Guest Jlall]

Way too subjective regarding some hands that north would pass on and many hands that east would pass on. Many easts would respond on this hand for example.

[jdonn]

Maybe not the diamond ruff, but I bet I would take my 4 top tricks.

[cherdano]

Of course I would drop the king when RHO passes 1♠.

[jdeegan]

Maybe not the diamond ruff, but I bet I would take my 4 top tricks.

:) Oooops, transcribed the wrong hand.[hv=d=w&v=b&n=saha98642d98c10872&w=skqj96h10dakq742ck&e=s10832hqj753d863c93&s=s754hkdj105caqj654]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

Some might not open the West hand for 1♠. Others might bid with the North hand. The subjective nature of this type of analysis makes it much more useful to the analyst than to anyone else.

[cherdano]

Uhm, I would think most would not open a 3-loser hand with 6 great diamonds and 5 spades 1♠. And I don't know anyone beyond beginner's who would pass 1♠ with the East hand.

[bid_em_up]

Uhm, I would think most would not open a 3-loser hand with 6 great diamonds and 5 spades 1♠. And I don't know anyone beyond beginner's who would pass 1♠ with the East hand.

I wouldnt pass the East hand. I would call the director, since I have 14 cards. :)

[whereagles]

There's a known technical bug with pavlicek's generator. The hands it gives are more freak than the theoretical odds predict.

 

Unless pavlicek corrected the bug, your simulation is statisticall wrong :rolleyes:

[marcD]

For whatever it's worth i would pass since there is a fair chance than the opponents are cold for 4H. If i were to balance I think 3C better desribes my hand (provided it is natural :))