Against 2C precision

[MFA]

[hv=d=e&v=n&s=s85hakdk1075caq832]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

East opens 2♣. This shows 11-15. 6+C or 5+C & 4M.

 

What is your medicine?

[pclayton]

I'd overcall 2N, but only because of the colors.

[jtfanclub]

I pass- I think this is unlikely to get passed out.

[Guest Jlall]

turbo pass.

[inquiry]

Gee I hold their suit and modest points? Isn't pass and a hopeful reopening double just what the doctor ordered. And if partner bids, my hand will not be a disappointment. And if partner who is clearly short in clubs can not balanced, don't we really want to play defense? This is easy, easy, painless pass.

[pclayton]

Is everyone looking at the vulnerability correctly?

 

We are red; the opps are white. What are the chances pard is going to reopen with a 3442 9 count? Since this hand gives me a likely 3N, how can I pass this?

[mikegill]

Where are your trick coming from in 3NT if pard can't reopen. You know pard is short in clubs - if he can't bid on his own then you could be going for your life in 2NT. It seems like 2NT only wins when you have a making game, and partner won't reopen if you pass. It loses anytime LHO has the bulk of the remaining strength - even if he doesn't double you, you're taking away your almost certain + against 2C and replacing it with a -200 or so in 2NT. Change the hand to xx AK KTxxx AQxx and now I think it's obvious to bid 2NT.

[inquiry]

how can I pass this?

Look for one of the green cards.... they should be in bidding box somewhere. Pick it up, place it on the table in front of you without fanfare. That should do it. Online, point your mouse at the word PASS in the bidding box and click.

[Guest Jlall]

Is everyone looking at the vulnerability correctly?

yes it's a nice vul for going for a number with no source of tricks opposite a yarborough.

 

What are the chances pard is going to reopen with a 3442 9 count?

 

Forecast is high. Enjoy collecting a number.

 

Since this hand gives me a likely 3N, how can I pass this?

 

Because bridge is not about creating very careful constructions and then acting accordingly, without thinking about the entire range of possibilities. Even if one accepts your premise that partner will not balance with this hand it's nice that you gave him 9 instead of 10 (which would be an auto balance) or 8 (where you rate not to make 3N) and you gave him 4 diamonds rather than 4432 (so he's less likely to balance and 3N is more likely to make), and you gave him a doubleton club instead of a stiff (which would be an auto balance).

 

If partner passes out 2C we know that given his short clubs, he is quite weak. He is unlikely to have 2 clubs though its possible, 1 is certainly more likely. If partner is passing this out with club shortness it will often be the case that I was wise to pass and am going plus instead of going down, potentially doubled, in 2N.

 

If partner reopens with a double it is certainly possible he has a hand where game won't make and we collect 300 or 500, and if we do make a game we will get 500 or 800 (or even 1100 on a very good day).

 

So basically by passing we will either avoid disaster, get to 3N anyways, or defend 2C X when we may or may not make a game on a large majority of hands. It is true that opposite a few very carefully constructed hands we will get to 2C undoubled when we can make 3N but it doesn't make much sense to focus on those hands.

[cherdano]

It gets more interesting when LHO's very likely non-forcing 2M gets passed back to me. What would everybody do? I would double 2♠, but pass 2♥.

[jtfanclub]

It gets more interesting when LHO's very likely non-forcing 2M gets passed back to me. What would everybody do? I would double 2♠, but pass 2♥.

Ew. It seems likely to me that opener has 4 cards in the other major (given my hand, I think 5m4M is more likely than 6m), and a raise with 4 card support would be automatic, so if it gets passed to me....

 

I think the right thing to do if they have a fit is to bid 3♦, and if they don't is to just pass and take their money. At this vulnerability, I can't risk 200. I just pass and keep the scoring low on this one.

[pclayton]

Is everyone looking at the vulnerability correctly?

yes it's a nice vul for going for a number with no source of tricks opposite a yarborough.

 

What are the chances pard is going to reopen with a 3442 9 count?

 

Forecast is high. Enjoy collecting a number.

 

Since this hand gives me a likely 3N, how can I pass this?

 

Because bridge is not about creating very careful constructions and then acting accordingly, without thinking about the entire range of possibilities. Even if one accepts your premise that partner will not balance with this hand it's nice that you gave him 9 instead of 10 (which would be an auto balance) or 8 (where you rate not to make 3N) and you gave him 4 diamonds rather than 4432 (so he's less likely to balance and 3N is more likely to make), and you gave him a doubleton club instead of a stiff (which would be an auto balance).

 

If partner passes out 2C we know that given his short clubs, he is quite weak. He is unlikely to have 2 clubs though its possible, 1 is certainly more likely. If partner is passing this out with club shortness it will often be the case that I was wise to pass and am going plus instead of going down, potentially doubled, in 2N.

 

If partner reopens with a double it is certainly possible he has a hand where game won't make and we collect 300 or 500, and if we do make a game we will get 500 or 800 (or even 1100 on a very good day).

 

So basically by passing we will either avoid disaster, get to 3N anyways, or defend 2C X when we may or may not make a game on a large majority of hands. It is true that opposite a few very carefully constructed hands we will get to 2C undoubled when we can make 3N but it doesn't make much sense to focus on those hands.

Bridge isn't about careful constructions, but it is about bidding effectively.

 

A semi-balanced 9 count seems to be one of the calls where pard is on the cusp however, and I think its a reasonable example of the type of hands where pard may pass out 2♣. If your pards make an auto double in the passout chair with squishy 9 counts, into a potential misfit auction and you think thats winning bridge, great. But I agree with you; a little better and its an auto-balance; a little worse, and pard passes, but we aren't making 3N either (maybe).

 

There are so many possibilities to consider here. A few cases:

 

1. You pass and it gets passed out and net +100. I overcall 2N and they nip me one, so you win 5.

 

2. You pass, pard doubles, I sit, and they wriggle into their 4-4 or 4-3 fit and you get it 300. Pard raises my 2N to 3N and LHO has a blind lead. Win 7 for me.

 

3. You pass, LHO invites and they settle in 3♠ which you can't beat. -140 for you. I overcall 2N, and we scramble into a 5-2 heart fit or some diamond fit. They lead trumps and crush me for 500. I lose 8.

 

4. You pass, LHO passes and pard balances with 2 of a major. We both settle in 3N. Push board.

 

5. You pass, LHO makes a non-forcing 2 of a major call on his 5 count. It gets passed out and you nip it 2. Pard makes a texas transfer on his weak hand with 6♥ and 4♦ and 4♥ is cold. Win 11 for me.

 

6. You pass, I get crushed in 2N when pard can't run out to anything. -800 for you against their spade partial. Win 12 for you.

 

I don't represent that any of these possibilities are more or less likely than others. But all of these are possible.

 

My guess is that passing overall is probably gains net IMPs, since you will have some real windfalls in 2♣ x'd, and avoiding disasters in 2N x'd. On a frequency basis, I would think 2N nets better since we will be getting to 3N a lot when partner can't balance or when we misjudge and they are able to find their defense against 3N by scrambling out of 2♣.

 

I have no idea what cases are the most likely, however, I would think if RHO opened 1♣ that this is a turbo 1N overcall. If RHO opened 3♣, this is also a turbo pass.

 

It's funny, I've been a big advocate for passing with length in RHO's suit instead of opening 1N, and a lot of my opinion has been formed by others who believe overcalling NT is a superior stance.

 

However, here I think its very close.

[MFA]

[hv=d=e&v=n&n=sj10xhj109xxdxxxxcx&w=sq7xxhqxxdaqj8cxx&e=sak9xhxxxd9ckj109x&s=s85hakdk1075caq832]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

I was east, and we got +1100 after

2♣ - 2NT - DBL - 3♥, DBL

 

My partner was afterwards very critical about south's 2NT. Usually, I'm very big on getting in to the auction on awkward hands - to get the job done. However, this particular south hand just cries for a pass, so I agreed with him. I would also have passed with south's cards.

 

But since it's so easy to be influenced by the actual layout, I really wanted to hear more opinions on this - so thx all!

[helene_t]

Pass, wtp. Justin said it all.

 

I once saw Zia pass with a similar hand but an ace stronger.

[whereagles]

Pass. Pard, marked with club shortage, will balance if he has the 8-9 hcp we need to make something.