awm Posted February 22, 2007 Report Share Posted February 22, 2007 On a rather silly auction you reach 6NT by south on the following cards: [hv=d=n&v=b&n=saqxhkqdaqjxxckjx&s=skjxh87xxxdk9xca9]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv] The lead is a high spade. After a reasonable amount of thought, you win in dummy and play the ♥K. At this point RHO goes into the tank for a substantial interval, and finally plays low. Everyone follows and the ♥K holds the trick. Next is to cash all the diamonds; RHO shows out on the second round and discards three clubs and a spade. LHO discards a club on the fifth diamond. Now two rounds of spades (all following), and the club ace. The position is now: [hv=d=n&v=b&n=saqxhkqdaqjxxckjx&s=skjxh87xxxdk9xca9]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv] Opponents have six cards left between them, of which four are hearts and two are clubs. When you advance the club nine, LHO plays the ten. Now is the moment of truth: do you play the club king hoping for the queen to fall, or take the finesse? Why? If it matters, RHO is a fairly good player but has some serious tempo issues. She had some time to plan at trick one and her break in tempo at trick two was substantial; her subsequent discards were in normal tempo as were LHO's. The auction revealed that south started with five hearts, has enough for slam opposite a balanced 22, and probably has balanced or semi-balanced shape (didn't try too hard for a suit slam). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foxx Posted February 22, 2007 Report Share Posted February 22, 2007 If RHO has serious tempo issues, why was she so quick to come down to a doubleton ♣Q? I'm hooking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted February 22, 2007 Report Share Posted February 22, 2007 I would be shocked if RHO didnt have the stiff CQ left. I feel 99 % confident that they have the stiff CQ left. If you later reveal that the hook is the winner I will feel stupid but that is my read. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted February 22, 2007 Report Share Posted February 22, 2007 I'll follow the agree with justin rule on this one because I have no real clue Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotShot Posted February 22, 2007 Report Share Posted February 22, 2007 If I didn't miss something ♥AJT9 and ♣QT are left. RHO had 1♦ and we saw 1♥, 4♣ and 4♠LHO had 4♦ and we saw 1♥, 2♣ and 3 ♠ Somehow I think RHO has ♥AJ9 while LHO has ♥T and ♣QT, meaning that initially opps held:LHO 3244 RHO 4414 So I'll try the Jack. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoTired Posted February 22, 2007 Report Share Posted February 22, 2007 finesse BECAUSE: Only if RHO has ♥AJ109 and ♣Qxxx is there a heart/club squeeze against RHO. That is highly unlikely, so if RHO has any other heart holding with ♣q, RHO can set the contract just by taking the ♥A and waiting for the ♣Q. By not taking the ♥A, RHO has put herself into a strip-squeeze. With all that thought, I will assume she saw this. If she does not have the ♣Q and she takes the ♥A immediately, declarer will have no option but try the successful club finesse. By not taking the ♥A, RHO gives declarer a chance for an endplay by leading a ♥ at the end instead. But since RHO does not have the ♣Q and can retain ♥AJ, RHO can set the contract by ducking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted February 22, 2007 Report Share Posted February 22, 2007 finesse BECAUSE: Only if RHO has ♥AJ109 and ♣Qxxx is there a heart/club squeeze against RHO. That is highly unlikely, so if RHO has any other heart holding with ♣q, RHO can set the contract just by taking the ♥A and waiting for the ♣Q. By not taking the ♥A, RHO has put herself into a strip-squeeze. No. It doesn't have to be AJT9 of hearts, it can be any 4 card heart holding. If RHO has the club queen then we know she has 4 hearts (4 spades, 1 diamond 4 clubs leaves..). So we know 100 % that if RHO has the CQ then we had her squeezed. I still say it is nearly 100 % that RHO has the club queen. edit edit: Sorry you're right I miscounted the clubs. So I guess I'm taking a losing option as usual :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted February 22, 2007 Report Share Posted February 22, 2007 finesse BECAUSE: Only if RHO has ♥AJ109 and ♣Qxxx is there a heart/club squeeze against RHO. That is highly unlikely, so if RHO has any other heart holding with ♣q, RHO can set the contract just by taking the ♥A and waiting for the ♣Q. By not taking the ♥A, RHO has put herself into a strip-squeeze. No. It doesn't have to be AJT9 of hearts, it can be any 4 card heart holding. If RHO has the club queen then we know she has 4 hearts (4 spades, 1 diamond 4 clubs leaves..). RHO pitched 3 clubs and followed to the ♣A. So if she has the ♣Q, she has 3 hearts originally, and you are playing for a (double-dummy) defensive mistake. Of course, that mistake may well be possible, if she had ♥AJx she had to guess whether to play partner for the ♥T or declarer for a misguess. However, since declarer still has a guess if he has the ten, I think it would be single-dummy mistake, too. I admit though that pitching 3 clubs from ♣xxxx and ♥AJT9 seems very unlikely. Arend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted February 22, 2007 Report Share Posted February 22, 2007 I don't see how you can call it a mistake to stiff the club queen instead of the heart ace. Isn't that totally dependent on what declarer will think you will do, and what declarer thinks you think, etc. I hate to bust this out but if you played deals like this a million times vs the same declarer a mixed strategy would be optimal. What is the best thing to do playing just once, I don't know, but I for sure would stiff the CQ if I had AJx of hearts, and I'm not sure what I'd do if I had Axx. I admit though that pitching 3 clubs from ♣xxxx and ♥AJT9 seems very unlikely. Right! There's no way anyone would do that. They would pitch a heart and 2 clubs. This is an amazingly strong clue. Also, when someone pitches 3 clubs immediately after thinking a long time at trick 2 they have figured out what's happening and are becoming overzealous and stiffing it immediately. This always happens. Also consider LHO's discarding Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted February 22, 2007 Report Share Posted February 22, 2007 I don't see how you can call it a mistake to stiff the club queen instead of the heart ace. Isn't that totally dependent on what declarer will think you will do, and what declarer thinks you think, etc. I am referring to the mistake of not taking the ♥A. If your read is right, RHO could have beaten the contract 100% by taking the ♥A at trick two and let partner guard hearts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoTired Posted February 22, 2007 Report Share Posted February 22, 2007 Right, justin... RHO is 4414... BUT RHO has already played 4♣ ... RHO pitched 3♣ on the diam and 1 on the ♣A, so has no more clubs. (unless I miscounted again) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted February 22, 2007 Report Share Posted February 22, 2007 Right, justin... RHO is 4414... BUT RHO has already played 4♣ ... RHO pitched 3♣ on the diam and 1 on the ♣A, so has no more clubs. (unless I miscounted again) you are right, my bad. it's me who can't count :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inquiry Posted February 22, 2007 Report Share Posted February 22, 2007 Right, justin... RHO is 4414... BUT RHO has already played 4♣ ... RHO pitched 3♣ on the diam and 1 on the ♣A, so has no more clubs. (unless I miscounted again) Right hand opponent is know to have held 4S and 1D... and so far has played 4 C.... There is only 1 C left out before you play from dummy...so RHO was either 4-4-1-4 as you suggest, or4-3-1-5 There is no certain way to tell. If he was 4315, play the club king, if he was 4414 finessee.. that is the gist of the problem. If he was 4315 he misdefended by not winning the heart ACE, if he was 4414 you always make if the club Queen is onside (and of course you hook).. I think that is where this argument has gone. Do you make the normal, safe play of hook, making or not making? (play EAST for 4414) or do you play east for misdefense with 4315? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotShot Posted February 22, 2007 Report Share Posted February 22, 2007 Just to mention it, opps had exactly 7HCP (♥AJ and ♣Q) at trick 1 and they still have 7HCP after trick 10. If we give all that to RHO, LHO never had a point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pclayton Posted February 22, 2007 Report Share Posted February 22, 2007 My hunch is to drop. With ♥AJTx and nothing in clubs, its pretty automatic to win and fire a heart back. There's simply no 'tension' on this hand. Just hold onto your hearts and pitch the appropriate number of clubs to 'look' like you're squoze. Ducking the heart doesn't necessarily lead to a successful defense. It just leads to a complicated endgame. If RHO has 'problems' on this hand, (s)he doesn't have tempo problems, (s)he has ethical issues. Sounds like you got coffeehoused. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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