How often would you balance?

[Walddk]

[hv=d=w&v=n&s=s754hkdj105caqj654]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

You are vul against not, and the bidding goes 1♠, pass, pass to you. How often would you balance at IMPs?

 

Roland

[Echognome]

I pass. Where are the hearts?

[Gerben42]

I voted never.

 

If you bid 2♣ here, reread "The complete book on balancing" by Mike Lawrence.

 

That does not mean 2♣ can't be the winning bid in the actual hand.

[P_Marlowe]

2C, ... ok, I never read Lawrence book,

so whats the problem?

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[whereagles]

The problem is pard might very well be short in spades. If so, given he didn't double, then he's broke and LHO is loaded. LHO will be quick to bid hearts and his pard to raise to 4, a contract you probably won't beat. To balance 2♣ thus risks helping opps reaching the game they're about to miss. If something, you can try 3♣, but even that isn't certain to deterr LHO from bidding 3♥.

 

Reverse your hearts and spades and 2♣ becomes quite normal.

 

Excellent judgement bidding problem, by the way ;)

[brianshark]

I must go get myself that book.

[Finch]

Here is an argument FOR balancing, which haven't yet been given.

 

- We are vul against not. If the opponents are making 4H because LHO has a good hand, they are probably making 1S as well (possibly with overtricks). So we stand to lose 300 points or so if we protect them into a making game.

 

- Partner may have a fair hand with no good action over 1S. Something like Kxx J10x AQxx Kxx is a normal pass over 1S, and 3NT is the right spot for us. With 1S likely to make with that hand opposite, we are losing out on 630 points or so by passing 1S out.

 

 

Which of these two layouts is more likely? I don't know, but just because we are short in hearts doesn't mean the opponents are making game in haerts.

[Winstonm]

I voted never. I partner has short spades, why couldn't he act. Although it could be right to balance, there is a great risk in balancing the opps into game.

[mcphee]

2C, if I balance them into a game that makes sorry, but if I balance our side into a game that makes is another consideration. Are the opps in a position to make a game in H? For that to happen LHO is going to have a lot of shape and find his partner with at least 4-5 trumps which is possible I suppose. Yet is it not possible our partner has no viable action over 1S? Can the hand we hold offer our side a chance to make 3NT? I think the answer to both these questions is yes and therefore it's important for me to act.

 

 

To bid 3C is silly as we are a long way from an intermeadiate hand which is what the shows in the balancing position.

[hotShot]

I voted sometimes, because:

 

opener could be playing acol showing only 4 cards,

he could be psyching or

it could be some freak distribution with RHO being ♠ void,

so partner might have ♠'s.

 

But this sometimes will be very rare.

[mike777]

I'm not good enough to ever balance, I just bid my hands and shut up.

[jtfanclub]

I voted sometimes, because:

 

opener could be playing acol showing only 4 cards,

he could be psyching or

it could be some freak distribution with RHO being ♠ void,

so partner might have ♠'s.

 

But this sometimes will be very rare.

Why a freak? Almost half the time, partner will have 3 spades given the auction, without an ACOL opening or psych. Given the vulnerability, partner would have to have a pretty good hand to overcall 2 hearts.

 

I'll go by table feel. If LHO winced when RHO passed, I'll pass. If not, I'll bid 3 clubs. Pass is probably better, though. You couldn't convince me to bid 2 clubs with a stick- if I'm playing with somebody who doesn't think this is a 3 club bid, I'll just pass.

 

If you bid 2 clubs, your partner will say 2 hearts (5 hearts, not enough count to bid at the 2 level vulnerable). Good luck with that.

[Gerben42]

If you bid 2♣, opener will bid 2♥ and make 4♥ before you know it.

 

If you bid 3♣, partner will take it as intermediate and bid 3NT, Doubled by opener.

[mike777]

Ok, why cannot partner have 5 or 6 hearts and less than a standard opening hand?

 

I got an opening hand in my junky style so I bid. I am not balancing, I am just bidding what is in front of me.

[Walddk]

I am not balancing, I am just bidding what is in front of me.

Well, whether you like it or not you are in the balancing seat, so if you bid, you balance.

 

On a different note it is interesting to see that everyone seems to be worried about making game either way (pass or 2♣). Would anyone consider the danger of going for a large number if you bid?

 

Roland

[mike777]

With Lawrence's book in front of me it seems Lawrence would pass with this hand for several reasons:

1) He rarely balances with 2 of a lower ranking suit.

2) He would do so with extra opening strength and a good suit

3) He would be very worried about the heart suit here

4) He might do it with a good 2 suited hand.

5) the 3 small spades would be a negative for him.

[bid_em_up]

I am not balancing, I am just bidding what is in front of me.

Well, whether you like it or not you are in the balancing seat, so if you bid, you balance.

 

On a different note it is interesting to see that everyone seems to be worried about making game either way (pass or 2♣). Would anyone consider the danger of going for a large number if you bid?

 

Roland

I'm not overly concerned about going for a large number (at least not at the two level). If opener doubles me, it is takeout and would have to be left in by RHO. RHO has already passed 1♠ so is relatively broke (and probably has spade tolerance). It is unlikely that he will be willing to defend. (yes, he may hold 5 or 6 clubs as well....its just unlikely).

 

It will be almost impossible for RHO to double if it goes 2C p p. He has no idea how strong his partner really is. It can always happen though.

 

Here, I would be more concerned with either 1) opponents finding a heart fit, or 2) partner getting carried away in competing, and THEN going for a number.

 

I dont like the stiff heart K, so its close as to whether I balance or not. It somewhat depends on my opposition (and my partner). So, I voted sometimes.

 

jmoo.

[Finch]

On a different note it is interesting to see that everyone seems to be worried about making game either way (pass or 2♣). Would anyone consider the danger of going for a large number if you bid?

 

Roland

Not really. Or at least, only to the extent that any time I overcall at the 2-level I am in danger of going for a large number.

[cherdano]

I am not concerned about going for a large number; though since Roland posted it, the chance is good that on the actual hand the 2♣ balance went for 1100 against nothing.

[Walddk]

I am not concerned about going for a large number; though since Roland posted it, the chance is good that on the actual hand the 2♣ balance went for 1100 against nothing.

Good thinking, Arend, but that did not happen.

 

Roland

[hotShot]

I'm not concerned about going down for a number, i have 8 looser and playing 2♣ this is down 3.

Additionally if I go down 3, opps probably can make 6 something.

And even if partner has few or no HCP, there is a good chance his ♥Q or T will make a trick, or ♣K is onside, or opps allow me to make ♥K.

Down 2 doubled when opps can make 4M is no reason to worry.

 

As others said, the risk is in allowing opps to bid game.

[jtfanclub]

What do I think partner has?

 

♠ J8

♥ QJ743

♦ Q64

♣ K93

 

(this is just a mix of a hand from another forum, not picked for any special reason).

 

Just to make sure, I made a poll with an even more extreme hand....

 

♠ J

♥ QJ7643

♦ Q64

♣ K93

 

And still nobody would bid with it (neither would I, but I've been surprised before).

 

This doesn't seem like a special hand to me...if opener has about 15 hcp, partner should have about 9. Yeah, opener might have 19 and I'll feel silly (if they make 4, which is not guaranteed), but it's more likely to be something like this.

 

The first response asked in this thread was 'where are the hearts'? I think the most likely answer is- partner has them.

 

P.S. The more I think about it, the less I think it likely that the opponents have game in hearts. That would make 2♣ a safe bid, instead of 3. I may have to reconsider which balancing bid I would make.

[whereagles]

Émile Borel, a famous XXth century mathematician, has once written a very interesting article on the statistics of balancing, on which he claims that, statistically, the min strength for balancing without the remaining major(s) is 12-13 hcp and up. Balancing with less that that risks transforming a good score into a bad one.

 

On the other hand, he also claims that if you do have the major(s), 7 hcp is quite enough ;)

 

The article is like 60 or 70 years old, so don't ask me for a reference :D I can, however, tell you I read about it in some English magazine.

[pclayton]

2♣ for me, and I am well aware of the risks that they may have a nice heart fit.

 

Are the passers aware that we may have 3N our way?

[hotShot]

2♣ for me, and I am well aware of the risks that they may have a nice heart fit.

 

Are the passers aware that we may have 3N our way?

I believe in partners ability to find a bid with a strong or distributional hand in 2nd seat.

So I am quite sure that we won't have 3NT, because if he had the strength needed for that, he should have bid over 1♠.