Psychology

[Finch]

[hv=d=n&v=b&n=sxxhaj98dakq109xcx&s=sqxhk1076dxxck9xxx]133|200|Scoring: IMP

1♦ P 1♥ P

4♥ all pass[/hv]

 

I was defending on this hand, and I was trying to apply some reverse psychology to declarer... so tell me what you think.

(I don't completely agree with the 4H bid, but a 4D rebid might have led to a different lead, so you are stuck with it)

 

low spade lead (looks like bottom from 3 or 5) to RHO's ace and King of spades. Queen of clubs switch, king, ace.

 

Considerable thought from LHO. Spade continuation.

 

(edit: You can be pretty certain that if LHO were 3-1 or 2-4 in the red suits that a club would have been continued, which is the best way for the defence to beat the contract even if you have KQ of hearts)

 

Who do you play for the HQ?

[jvage]

There are 2 factors to consider here. First the ♣Q from East seems like an unnessecary play to show as much HCP as possible (to make it look like she can't have any heart-values). The second factor is that if East really got spade A+K (probably fourth, less likely sixth judging from the lead), club Q+J and the guarded heart Q she would very often bid something over 1♦.

 

Since Frances has already told us that she used reverse psychology as defender I guess she was East and did not have the heart Q, so I play her partner for the Q :blink:

 

In real life this is more difficult, it depends on how good (and how conservative) you judge East. If East is weak I go by the HCP count and play West for the Queen. If East is a conservative average player I play him/her for the missing Queen. If East is an expert (as I know Frances is) and she knows declarer is good enough to pay attention I have a problem, but reverse psychology is the most likely explanation, and I play her partner for the Queen.

 

John

[Finch]

Both East and West are (more or less) experts, and fairly conservative bidders.

I'm not telling you if I was East or West.

[SoTired]

I don't need psychology. I am finessing West. East has already shown up with ♠AKxx (East would bid with ♠AKxxxx) and ♣QJx(x). With ♥Qx(x) also, East would probably bid something. Edited February 13, 2007 by SoTired

[han]

My guess is that Frances played the club queen from AK10x Qxx xxx Qxx. I would fall for it at the table, so congrats if you found this play.

 

As an aside, would you or your partner ever overcall 1S with something like AK10x xx xxx QJxx?

[pclayton]

Tapping dummy (instead of the ruff-sluff) with clubs looks like the 'obvious' play, but that leads to finessing hearts through East, since it becomes impossible to pick up ♥Qxxx in West.

 

There's a little bit of double-cross on this hand, but if I really respected West's play, I would not accept this greek gift, and still take the tap on the board and hook RHO for the ♥Q anyway.

[pclayton]

I don't need psychology. I am finessing West. East has already shown up with ♠AKxx (East would bid with ♠AKxxxx) and ♣QJx(x). With ♥Qx(x) also, East would probably bid something.

If RHO had ♠AKx, ♥Qxxx, ♦xxx, ♣QJx, there's no appealing call over 1♦.

 

If RHO has ♠AKxxx, its an auto 1♠ overcall for everyone, regardless of the rest of the hand.

 

I suppose there's something to East passing with a possible ♠AKx, ♥Qxxx, ♦xx, ♣QJxx, but we don't have a strong inference about East's non-spade suit lengths.

[SoTired]

I don't need psychology. I am finessing West. East has already shown up with ♠AKxx (East would bid with ♠AKxxxx) and ♣QJx(x). With ♥Qx(x) also, East would probably bid something.

If RHO had ♠AKx, ♥Qxxx, ♦xxx, ♣QJx, there's no appealing call over 1♦.

 

If RHO has ♠AKxxx, its an auto 1♠ overcall for everyone, regardless of the rest of the hand.

 

I suppose there's something to East passing with a possible ♠AKx, ♥Qxxx, ♦xx, ♣QJxx, but we don't have a strong inference about East's non-spade suit lengths.

West led a small spade presumably from 3/5th. So east has 4 or 6 spades. If West is false-carding the opening lead, I'll pay out to that.

[pclayton]

I don't need psychology. I am finessing West. East has already shown up with ♠AKxx (East would bid with ♠AKxxxx) and ♣QJx(x). With ♥Qx(x) also, East would probably bid something.

If RHO had ♠AKx, ♥Qxxx, ♦xxx, ♣QJx, there's no appealing call over 1♦.

 

If RHO has ♠AKxxx, its an auto 1♠ overcall for everyone, regardless of the rest of the hand.

 

I suppose there's something to East passing with a possible ♠AKx, ♥Qxxx, ♦xx, ♣QJxx, but we don't have a strong inference about East's non-spade suit lengths.

West led a small spade presumably from 3/5th. So east has 4 or 6 spades. If West is false-carding the opening lead, I'll pay out to that.

Yes you are right; I missed that.

 

But the reasoning is similar; RHO can't have ♠AKxxxx; and only might make a call with ♠AKJx or ♠AKTx.

 

I stand by my analysis :angry:

[han]

Phil, we also know that RHO has AKJx or AK10x because LHO would have lead the jack from J10xxx. At least I would think so.

 

Other inferences are that LHO is unlikely to have a stiff diamond (might lead it) or diamond void (would play the highest spade under the king).

 

I think the obvious play is to finesse LHO for the queen as RHO might have doubled with AK10x Qxx xx QJxx and might have overcalled 1S with something similar.

[Halo]

In this situation the issue is usually:

 

LHO with hearts/diamonds 1/4

 

or

 

LHO with hearts diamonds 4/1

 

Anyway, like the rest I'm not rising to the pyschological bait. Rightly or wrongly, I'm finessing LHO.

[Free]

Lest see: now I 'should' play RHO for ♥Q, so why would LHO be so kind to give away that position? So I 'should' change my mind and play LHO for the ♥Q, but since it's reversed psychology, RHO must have the ♥Q.

 

(it's complicated, and I've had some beer) :)

[kenrexford]

I'm thinking more and more about the tap potential on this hand. Another club would have shortened dummy to three hearts. This causes Declarer some problems in picking up the suit.

 

If he guesses hearts wrong, a third round of clubs will leave him stranded in dummy with a trump out and no way back to his hand. This sucks for Declarer. Let alone picking up a 4-1 heart split; very ugly.

 

A spade continuation, however, gives Declarer an option to solve both the 4-1 issue and the entry issue. He can ruff in hand, cash the heart King, lead the heart 10, and then repeat the finesse to pick up one 4-1 possibility. Further, if the 10 loses but the suit splits 3-2, he's probably safe for down only one.

 

Thus, the spade lead entices Declarer into trumping in hand and finessing for his LHO to have the heart Queen. The club lead, in contrast, does not give him this extra chance and this "superior" layout, such that the club might leave it 50-50 which way to go.

 

So, as a Defender, you would tend to attack spades from the left if you did not have the heart Queen, and conversely you would attack clubs if you did (to at least get back to a 50-50 guess).

 

If Declarer picks this up, he might then cater to his LHO's decision, if he thinks that LHO realizes this position. This could be the "double cross" as well.

 

So, I'm much more fascinated with the issue from LHO's perspective, myself, like pclayton suggested.

[Finch]

RHO does indeed have the HQ (AK10x Qxx Jxx QJx didn't look like a take-out double to him, nor indeed would it have done to me).

 

I think against good opponents I shouldn't have tried this ruff-discard as, if anything, it's persuaded those people who've thought about it to play the correct hand for the HQ. Another club is such an obvious card I think I should have stuck with it. Maybe I'll a try a spade sometime when I have the HQ!

 

(As it happens, declarer ruffed the spade in dummy, crossed to hand and played a heart to the Jack and Queen. But then she wasn't a strong player.)

[Fluffy]

I am still trrying to guess why East played ♠AK in reverse order and what info does it give

[Guest Jlall]

I think everyone is making this way too complicated. Just play east for the Q of hearts no matter what happens. That is your percentage play as you can pick up Qxxx of hearts with RHO but not with lho. The only time you will get to pick up Qxxx of hearts with LHO is if they lead a spade back which would not happen ever if they had that holding, thus is not possible. Don't let them distract you from your normal play.