Defensive problem

[cherdano]

[hv=d=n&v=b&n=shq754dakq865c952&w=st94haj92dj73cak3]266|200|Scoring: IMP

1♦-1♠

2♦-2♠[/hv]

Your opponents bid unobstructed to 2♠. You lead the club ace, partner playing the queen, declarer following with the 7.

 

Please first decide what you play at trick two.

 

If you play the ♣K, partner follows with ♣4 (remaining ud count).

 

If you underlead a club, partner will win with the ten and play back ♥3. You play attitude leads in this situation. (No count implied.)

 

If you play ♥A, partner follows with the 3, attitude.

 

(Please don't assume any of that information in any of the other situations, as they may or may not be part of the same hand with partner.)

[pclayton]

To beat this, we will need a combination of 3♣+ 2♥+1♠, 2♣, 2♥, 1♠ and a ♥ruff, or (unlikely), 3♣, 1♥ and 2♠'s.

 

My ♠10-9 are interesting too, and could be ripe for a promotion.

 

In all cases, we need at least 2♣ tricks. So I will lay down a 2nd ♣ and hope to get a present count card from pard.

[cherdano]

In all cases, we need at least 2♣ tricks. So I will lay down a 2nd ♣ and hope to get a present count card from pard.

You aren't done yet Phil :) Partner plays ♣4, showing even present count (odd original count). What do you do?

[inquiry]

I voted continue club king, when partner shows even number (3 or 5 originally). i switch to the heart ACE. If partner shows the heart king, i will continue hearts. If partner discourages, i will switch back to a club, and expect partner to win an early spade trick and lead another club for possible trump promotion(s).

[pclayton]

Sorry Arend; the laptop was lost to eminent domain last night before I finished. :D

 

I will cash the ♥A 1st, and follow by having pard cash the 3rd ♣. With the ♣4, pard looks he has an original holding of ♣QJx4.

 

I think we have an easy set here if declarer has 6 spades. Declarer doesn't have solid spades for a 2♠ rebid and as long as pard had a holding of Jxxx or better, we are beating this through 3♣'s, 1♥ and 2 trump tricks. Frankly -2 or even -3 seem possible, as with this misfit, pard might have a few spade tricks himself, along with the promotion.

 

There's a little guesswork if declarer has 7♠'s. Is he: ♠AKJxxxx, ♥xx ♦x, ♣xxx (although this is a VERY heavy 2♠ call) - we need pard to cash the 2nd heart pronto? Or is he: ♠AK8xxxx, ♥x, ♦xx, ♣xxx - where we need a 4th club right away?

 

But the guess is pard's :) .

[Finch]

If declarer is 6322 and partner has Kx of hearts then

 

i) You need to switch to the HJ at trick 2 to get all your tricks cashed

ii) You can give declarer a heart ruff instead, let's hope not with a trump trick, but you can't read his card on the HA anyway.

 

This makes this problem almost impossible at matchpoints, because switching away from the HA may be fatal if declarer has the HK.

[pclayton]

If declarer is 6322 and partner has Kx of hearts then

 

i) You need to switch to the HJ at trick 2 to get all your tricks cashed

ii) You can give declarer a heart ruff instead, let's hope not with a trump trick, but you can't read his card on the HA anyway.

 

This makes this problem almost impossible at matchpoints, because switching away from the HA may be fatal if declarer has the HK.

Declarer can't be 6322 if we trust pard's count card in clubs.

[cherdano]

This makes this problem almost impossible at matchpoints, because switching away from the HA may be fatal if declarer has the HK.

Sorry, scoring is IMPs. Will fix it in the original post.

 

And anyway, to me the problem looks very possible, as I faced it at the table (online) yesterday...

[cherdano]

Declarer can't be 6322 if we trust pard's count card in clubs.

Partner's club 4 showed even present count, so declarer has 2 or 4 clubs.

[pclayton]

Declarer can't be 6322 if we trust pard's count card in clubs.

Partner's club 4 showed even present count, so declarer has 2 or 4 clubs.

Oh just saw your comment about ud present count.

 

This really isn't the norm even when you play udca, by the way.

 

In this case, I'll try the ♥J, followed by the ♥A, then the club.

[jchiu]

♥J playing partner for a slow trump trick and the surround play. Works when declarer has something like

 

[hv=s=sakqxxxh10xxdxxcxx]133|100|[/hv]\

 

Maybe optimistic when you have to assume declarer has was trying to improve the partscore. However, I couldn't find any other convincing reasons to do something else, and it is slightly less rosy if you know they play 1♦-2♠ as a non-constructive preemptive jump shift.

 

On the other hand, present count returns seem somewhat more standard here on the East Coast. I am not sure that second-trick present count is that widespread yet, but I definitely like its advantages when the primary signal to the first club trick is attitude.

[cherdano]

I don't think present count return would help on this hand. If you underlead clubs, and partner returns a low heart other than the lowest one, you don't know whether he has 3 or 4.

[pclayton]

I don't think present count return would help on this hand. If you underlead clubs, and partner returns a low heart other than the lowest one, you don't know whether he has 3 or 4.

The heart count is something of a guess here. There's some judgement on how many heart tricks we can cash, coupled with our spade tricks.

 

The present count is crucial for the club cash, however, and thats why I brought it up.

[han]

If declarer has AKQxxx 10xx x xx then our only defense is to lead the heart jack at trick 2. If declarer has the king of hearts then that gives up on all of our chances. So clearly we cannot always beat this, we cannot read the position at trick one, so we should aim to find the defense that is most likely to beat the contract.

 

The heart jack at trick 2 loses if declarer has the heart king and we can set it in a different ways (ignoring the possibilities of overtricks atm). This can happen if we can cash 3 clubs and partner has two trump tricks, or if partner has 1 trump trick and we can manage a trump promotion at trick 1.

 

Playing a low club at trick 2 gives up on some holdings where declarer has 10xx of hearts and exactly 2 clubs, as well as some possible trump-promotion hands. However, it is very likely that we can read the position from partners very likely heart return.

 

Playing a second high club gives up on some holdings with Kx with partner (declarer will almost certainly guess hearts), and isn't necessary for any holding I can think of. The club count may give us an idea of how to continue, but it will likely be hard to read. Another possible danger is that we crash partner's QJ doubleton.

 

My only conclusion so far is that this is a hard problem to figure out at the table. Calculating the precise odds is impossible as we don't know exactly with which hands RHO would bid 2S. I can't tell how I would have played it since I was sitting east.

[cherdano]

Playing a low club at trick 2 gives up on some holdings where declarer has 10xx of hearts and exactly 2 clubs, as well as some possible trump-promotion hands. However, it is very likely that we can read the position from partners very likely heart return.

It also gives up on hands where partner returns a low heart and we misguess whether partner has led back from Kxxx (we should try to cash a club) or Kxx (we should play back to partner's king and THEN try to cash a club). Probably we will guess Kxx so it gives up a trick on layouts where partner has ♥Kxxx and a 3rd club is cashing.

[cherdano]

Playing a second high club gives up on some holdings with Kx with partner (declarer will almost certainly guess hearts),

I am not sure this is true. If partner has ♥Kx, declarer has to guess whether to play for exactly that (or ♥Ax with partner) or a heart shift to the jack from Jx(x).

[Finch]

Playing the HJ looks really, really silly if declarer has

 

KQJxxx

K10x

-

xxxx

 

so I'm certain it's not possible to get this right 100% of the time.

 

As hannie says, it's a matter of what the most likely layout is.