Play problem

[catch22]

[hv=d=n&v=n&n=sq9754hakq762da6c&s=saj63h43d87ck9643]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

1H-1S

4C-4S

4NT-5D

6S

 

You are playing in 6S on a small diamond lead. What is the best line?

[Finch]

Line 1:

Ace of diamonds

Ace of trumps

Hearts

 

Line 2:

Ace of diamonds

Spade finesse, ace of spades

 

Line 1 needs:

- Singleton SK (12.4%) or

- hearts 3-2, plus

i) Kx of spades with the doubleton heart (14%), or

iii) Kxx spades on my right with the doubleton heart (7%)

iv) singleton spade with the doubleton heart (11%)

 

that looks to be around 45%, except I've probably double-counted something or missed something out.

 

Line 2 needs

- The SK onside, plus

i) Spades 2-2 (20.4%), or

ii) Singleton SK onside (6.2%)

iii) RHO having Kxx in trumps plus 2 or more hearts (14%)

 

Which looks to be around 40%

 

So I tentatively go for line 1. But someone will tell me what I have missed.

 

(If RHO shows out on the first spade you can switch horses from either line for the extra chance LHO is 4-3 in the majors)

[Apollo81]

I'd just play hearts without cashing the ♠A. I lose to 4-1 hearts or potentially misguessing spades later on certain layouts.

 

Neither opp has 11 minor cards. Someone might have preempted, overcalled, or bid unusual 2NT with 10 minor cards too....but we obviously cant rule that out.

[Finch]

When does not cashing the SA first gain, assuming that you aren't double-dummy perfect after the third heart is ruffed?

 

That is, what is your strategy after either 3 rounds of hearts ruffed low on your left, and what holdings does it gain on over cashing the SA first?

 

I assume your strategy after 3 rounds of hearts ruffed low on your right is to over-ruff, cash the SA, ruff a club and play another heart, which seems definitely best. What holdings does this gain on over cashing the SA first?

[catch22]

i) Kx of spades with the doubleton heart (14%)

 

Assuming a 3-2 heart split the only Kx you lose out to is Kx onside with tripleton heart.

[Apollo81]

When does not cashing the SA first gain, assuming that you aren't double-dummy perfect after the third heart is ruffed?

 

That is, what is your strategy after either 3 rounds of hearts ruffed low on your left, and what holdings does it gain on over cashing the SA first?

 

I assume your strategy after 3 rounds of hearts ruffed low on your right is to over-ruff, cash the SA, ruff a club and play another heart, which seems definitely best. What holdings does this gain on over cashing the SA first?

When LHO has ♠xx ♥xx you lose. When LHO has ♠Kx ♥xx I lose assuming I cannot find the drop after this.

[Finch]

When does not cashing the SA first gain, assuming that you aren't double-dummy perfect after the third heart is ruffed?

 

That is, what is your strategy after either 3 rounds of hearts ruffed low on your left, and what holdings does it gain on over cashing the SA first?

 

I assume your strategy after 3 rounds of hearts ruffed low on your right is to over-ruff, cash the SA, ruff a club and play another heart, which seems definitely best. What holdings does this gain on over cashing the SA first?

When LHO has ♠xx ♥xx you lose. When LHO has ♠Kx ♥xx I lose assuming I cannot find the drop after this.

Kx xx and xx xx are equally likely. If you are to finesse next, you also lose to singleton K with tripleton heart offside.

 

It's too late for me to work out if you should finesse or cash the ace on your line after the third heart is ruffed on your left.

[Finch]

i) Kx of spades with the doubleton heart (14%)

 

Assuming a 3-2 heart split the only Kx you lose out to is Kx onside with tripleton heart.

True.

That makes this line even better.

[BebopKid]

I'd assume for 3-1 Spade split and 3-2 Heart split.

 

I need RHO to have SK

 

I'd play SQ first, playing low from hand.

 

Play low to the SJ.

 

Play SA.

 

Play Hearts, dumping my diamond at first chance.

 

 

If everything goes that way I need it, I make 7.

 

If I lose the lead, I'm down 1 at best from diamond, and shuffle up and deal the next hand.

[jtfanclub]

I'd play SQ first, playing low from hand.

I can't think of a single holding where playing the SQ is an advantage over just playing low to the jack. If your RHO has KT8, nothing is going to prevent him from taking a trick. If he has K82, you pick it up either way. If he has singleton king, you just threw away your chance to make it by leading the queen.

 

If you had AJ93 with Qxxxx on dummy, you'd lead the queen so you could finesse the ten. the next time around. Since the second level fineese is the Q9, I can't imagine why you'd want to break it up.

 

I'm sure I'm missing something...why the Queen?

[Free]

Cashing ♠A and going after ♥s seems best to me. I'm not such a frequency expert, but the line just "feels" right.

[bid_em_up]

To add to Frances line #1:

 

Line 1:

Ace of diamonds

Ace of trumps

Hearts

 

Line 1 needs:

- Singleton SK (12.4%) or

- hearts 3-2, plus

i) Kx of spades with the doubleton heart (14%), or

ii) Kxx spades on my right with the doubleton heart (7%)

iii) singleton spade with the doubleton heart (11%)

 

This line also wins whenever:

 

iv) xx spades xx heart onside (its not clear if Frances was including this in (i) above)

v) the hand with 3 hearts also holds 3 spades.

 

Overall, this has to be the winning percentage line.

[Finch]

Your (v) is the same as my (iii)

 

Your (iv) I think is the same as the extra chance catch22 added above, but re-phrased (my (i) should have been "all Kx holdings except Kx onside with 3 hearts" which is (i) + (iv) )

[bid_em_up]

Your (v) is the same as my (iii)

so it is.....not awake yet.

[Halo]

AD, AS, play hearts as a strategy requires spades on the right:

 

i) K = 6%

or

ii) Kx of spades with the doubleton heart = 14%

or

iii) Kxx spades with the three hearts = 10%

or

iv) xxx = 6%

or

v) xx with three hearts = 7%

or

v1) x with doubleton heart = 10%

or

vii) void with one or two hearts = 2%

 

 

Since the numbers were rounded that's about 56%/57% in total.

 

Significantly better than the alternatives.

[bid_em_up]

Why does it appear (to me anyway) that everyone thinks that this line only includes Kx xx on the right?

 

It includes ANY doubleton spade, doubleton heart on the right.

 

If righty ruffs the 3rd heart small, you overruff, ruff a club in dummy, and play a 4th heart, pitching your losing diamond.

 

If righty ruffs the 3rd heart with the K, well obviously, you pitch your diamond.

[Halo]

Yes - but you're playing bridge now rather than just counting!

 

The same logic applies to Kxx on the right. So that's another 17% in total for this line giving over 70%. The size of the advantage over other lines is a bit non-intuitive but it seems correct.