Nasty preempts

[Free]

You hold:

[hv=d=w&v=n&s=sak3h52dkq652cat4]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

The auction goes (we're red):

pass - pass - 3♣ - ?

 

What do you bid?

[EDIT : our opening style is Fantunes, all unbalanced 10+ counts are opened, all balanced 12+ counts as well. No weak openings except preempts, which are solid in this vulnerability]

[keylime]

I might be completely off my rocker here, but before I answer...what's your opening style normally? If it's light initial action it will change what I will do.

[Free]

Edited the start post, since other people might think likewise :)

[keylime]

I stick my neck out and bid 3D. 3NT is now out of the question; am going to play pard for a 6-7 count that they normally have.

[hotShot]

3♣ will show (6)7 ♣'s and you hold another 3, so your partner can hardly hold a balanced hand and you will need maximum values from partner to get anywhere.

 

You need to score plus and 3♣ might make, so I go for 3♦.

[pbleighton]

3D is tempting, but I pass.

 

Peter

[MickyB]

Pass. I'll pay off to pard having a maximum pass with club length. Given what a 3♣ bid could be on at those conditions I think that it is percentage to hope that no contract is making at the 3 level, and that pard might protect if we belong elsewhere. If RHO is known to be a solid citizen I'll try 3♦.

[mikeh]

The choices are: Pass, 3N or 3♦.

 

we can eliminate 3♦: it aims at winning a partscore battle. While I doubt that 3♦ is likely to get doubled, it may easily be -200 and even when it makes, it will be 110 or 130 against a probable 50 or 100 our way. Yes, it could be a double-partscore-hand, but that is a narrow target. And the chances of our getting to a making 3N after a 3♦ start are between slim and none.

 

3N: if we are bidding, this is the bid: when it is right, we get a big payoff. It is unlikely to get doubled since RHO has no idea who has what opposite a wide-range 3rd seat favourable preempt. We may even make 3N on hands on which 3♦ fails!

 

OTOH, when 3N fails, it is in multiple hundreds: down 4 would be no surprise.

 

 

Pass is the safest call, and has an expectation of a small plus more times than not: certainly, we will go plus on many hands on which we'd make 3♦. But when we make 3N, our +100 will not help much.

 

And there remains a tiny chance that partner will balance: but if we take any extended time making up our mind, we likely lose that chance... partner will/should consider himself barred.

 

Having done all this thinking (and, yes, it can be done in 10 seconds, even if it takes longer than that to read it), I'd bid 3N.

 

I would NOT do this if LHO were unpassed: then the chance of a double would be too high. If LHO were unpassed, I'd pass.

[mike777]

3nt...next hand...cannot pass.

[hatchett]

3NT. Looks normal. Club Ten could be a big card and the ace gives us control.

[mcphee]

If you want to try for 9 tricks you may as well collect the big bucks and bid game. As Mike points out, not if lefty is an unpassed hand. So 3NT or pass depending what LHO has done.

[Winstonm]

Seems the question is what is the risk/gain in passing verses bidding 3NT.

 

If 3N fails and we pass, we collect in the neighborhood of +250, down 2 and down 1. If 3N makes and they pass at the other table, we gain about +500, +600 and minus -100. So we are laying 2/1 if we pass.

 

I think we are pretty much compelled to bid 3N - the 5th diamond may be huge as well as the club 10.

[the hog]

I am passing. I normally bid very aggressive 3NTs after pre empts and am sympathetic to anyone who bids that here. Pd being a passed hand frightens me a bit though.

[keylime]

The more I think about it, 3D has a lot of minuses for it and not many pluses. I'm going to change and vote for "pass" as well.

[Rossoneri]

Pass.

[pclayton]

3N looks normal. RHO might have a little extra for the preempt, but if he does, he doesn't have a great club suit.

[HeartA]

I don't think "pass is safe" at all. You will not get "huge negative" by pass. But you may miss a solid game or even slam while your pd holds the "right cards" and want to be "safe" as well.

 

I will bid 3NT, 3D as a very close alternative.

[whereagles]

In this opening style, pard rates to have an unbalanced 8-9 with club shortness. If he indeed has that hand, he'll balance with double and I'll make my mind later.

 

Pass for now, though 3NT is much safer than some believe (opener is in 3RD seat, so his pard cannot play him for defensive tricks).

[keylime]

Slam? Slam? Don't talk about slam! You nuts? <paraphrase of Jim Mora>

 

Pard failed to open. Pard also plays a Fantunes derivative where they open all unbalanced 10 counts, open all balanced 12 counts. Even if their 1NT range is 11-3/14, pard passed.

 

If pard has his usual 6-7 points 3NT is a very thin game that will be a go big or go home score. We're red on white at imps - that's what changed my vote from 3D to pass. The fear of going -500 versus a small partial scared me off.

 

If we defend I'll guess we'll gain probably +50/+100. If I bid 3NT it's +600 or -500 when LHO shows us with a 4333 12 count and RHO pops up with an unexpected queen/king as we struggle. I think it's too speculative at a KO to bid anything but pass unless you're behind by a large margin and/or late in the match trying to win it; at Swiss tho.....wow, that's something I have to think over very carefully (inclination is bid 3NT).

 

If I was forced to bid something other than pass, 3NT. It's the only bid that gives us some chance at +600 and keeps LHO in the dark some. Lot better than my initial 3D call which has very little for it.

[MFA]

3NT. Pretty clear-cut.

 

Pass is too pessimistic and 3♦ needs to hit a huge fit to gain something noteworthy.