Poky Posted January 16, 2007 Report Share Posted January 16, 2007 [hv=d=s&v=b&n=shaxxxdqjxxcaqjxx&w=sxhqtxxxdakxxcxxx]266|200|Scoring: IMPOn dA partner signals odd number of diamonds.[/hv]4♠ pass pass passLead: ♦A Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Finch Posted January 16, 2007 Report Share Posted January 16, 2007 I can't have had enough sleep last night, because I cant see myself doing anything other than playing a heart. It seems a bit of a guess whether declarer is, say, 7123/8122 and we need to set up the CK and a trump trick, or 7222/8221 and we need to set up a heart plus a trump or a club, but the latter needs slightly less from partner and beats the contract more if declarer is, say, 7321. Alternatively it can just be right to cash the other diamond and wait for two trump tricks, but that also seems less likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halo Posted January 16, 2007 Report Share Posted January 16, 2007 Agree with Frances and taking out dummy's entry may be essential if there is a ruffing club finesse - declarer 8221. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted January 16, 2007 Report Share Posted January 16, 2007 I'd play a club just on the basis that declarer's more likely to have a stiff heart than a stiff club. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdeegan Posted January 16, 2007 Report Share Posted January 16, 2007 I'd play a club just on the basis that declarer's more likely to have a stiff heart than a stiff club. :) ditto Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pclayton Posted January 16, 2007 Report Share Posted January 16, 2007 The difference between declarer holding a stiff heart versus a stiff club is pretty nominal. But a heart pays off to pard holding ♥Kx or a stiff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poky Posted January 17, 2007 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2007 I'd play a club just on the basis that declarer's more likely to have a stiff heart than a stiff club. Well done. ♠AKJTxxxx-♥K-♦xx-♣xx it was. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gpm_bg Posted January 17, 2007 Report Share Posted January 17, 2007 Will be more easily to deside if your partner show desire, not lenght.I usually want that with Ace pulling. As he/she throw probably low diamond for showing odd number in diamonds, you may see that as signal for ♣. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halo Posted January 17, 2007 Report Share Posted January 17, 2007 I'm almost convinced. But if South is more likely to have two clubs and one heart, is he not by the same token more likely to have x,Kx rather than K,xx in the two suits. In that case his losing diamond goes on the third club. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pclayton Posted January 17, 2007 Report Share Posted January 17, 2007 The only thing I'm convinced of is that I wish I was playing Obvious Shift here. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted January 17, 2007 Report Share Posted January 17, 2007 I'm almost convinced. But if South is more likely to have two clubs and one heart, is he not by the same token more likely to have x,Kx rather than K,xx in the two suits. In that case his losing diamond goes on the third club. Then you need partner to have two trump tricks to beat it. Playing for pard to have 2 trump tricks and declarer to have Kx of clubs specifically seems very anti percentage, but if declarer has AKJxxxxx x xx Kx then cashing another diamond is the only way to set it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halo Posted January 17, 2007 Report Share Posted January 17, 2007 Maybe I expressed myself badly. a) Two trump tricks is not likely. :P Singleton K of hearts is not likely c) Doubleton K of clubs more likely than (xx clubs + K singelton hearts) d) Club lead is disaster if singleton club or Kx clubs So even though we are not favourite to take it off, play a heart feels best. I may be wrong - have been when it feels right. But vage generalisation is not a counter argument. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sathyab Posted January 17, 2007 Report Share Posted January 17, 2007 I tried the exercise of giving declarer a heart holding other than the stiff King and see if a heart switch fares worse than a club switch. I couldn't come up with any scenarios. So I'd switch to a heart and be okay with the result. If you did switch to a heart at the table and were wrong, my sympathies and hope you were not playing with a result-merchant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Finch Posted January 17, 2007 Report Share Posted January 17, 2007 It's a toss-up between which holding is more likely for declarer, together which which holding is more likely for partner: you have to worry about both of them. It's true that declarer is more likely to have a singleton heart than a singleton club.But it's also true that he is more likely to have two heart losers than one (7-3-2-1 shape), when we don't need a trump trick as well; while he will never have more than one club loser. Some of these things are very hard to estimate e.g. the chance of two trump tricks (we need to cash a diamond now) depends so much on opener's pre-empting style.Some can be measured: if declarer has 8 spades and 2 diamonds, he is 60% to have a 0 or 1 hearts and only 40% to have 0 or 1 clubs; if he is 7-2 in the pointeds he is 45% to have 0 or 1 hearts and 26% to have 0 or 1 clubs. So he is about twice as likely to have a doubleton club than a doubleton heart (the difference is greater than I first guessed). Everything else (relative chance of 7 or 8 spades; relative chance of 1 or 2 trump tricks) seems to be guesswork. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted January 17, 2007 Report Share Posted January 17, 2007 So he is about twice as likely to have a doubleton club than a doubleton heart (the difference is greater than I first guessed). Interesting, thanks. Intuitively that felt right (thats why I shifted to a club when theres a possible extra hand type where a heart is right) but I had no idea what the math was. I tried the exercise of giving declarer a heart holding other than the stiff King and see if a heart switch fares worse than a club switch. I couldn't come up with any scenarios. ??? uhh.. AKJTxxxx x xx xx would be a protypical hand type. There are many of these. I would also like to note that it's not like every 7321 hand is an auto lose if you don't shift to a heart. It would require specific hand types. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted January 17, 2007 Report Share Posted January 17, 2007 I would also like to note that it's not like every 7321 hand is an auto lose if you don't shift to a heart. It would require specific hand types. Hmm. Club to the ace, club ruff, diamond up. Do you duck or not? I suppose you duck and still win against 7321 with one trump loser and two heart losers, or two trump losers and one heart loser. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted January 17, 2007 Report Share Posted January 17, 2007 Some can be measured: if declarer has 8 spades and 2 diamonds, he is 60% to have a 0 or 1 hearts and only 40% to have 0 or 1 clubs; if he is 7-2 in the pointeds he is 45% to have 0 or 1 hearts and 26% to have 0 or 1 clubs. So he is about twice as likely to have a doubleton club than a doubleton heart (the difference is greater than I first guessed).I am confused. I neither quite agree with your percentages above, nor with your conclusion:Assuming 7-2 in ♠-♦, I get a 35% chance for a singleton or void in hearts, and 16.7% for 0-1 clubs. In other words, 65% chance for at least a doubleton heart, and 83% for at least a doubleton club. That's not even close to twice as likely for the doubleton club. Ah, I suppose you mean he is twice as likely to have "at least a doubleton club and heart shortness" than "at least a doubleton heart and club shortness"? Now that makes sense to me. Also, if declarer is 7222, a club is always at least as good as a heart. (If declarer has ♥Kx ♣xx a club is needed, but if he has ♥xx ♣Kx a heart does not help, and if he has ♥xx ♣xx it does not matter.) So I suppose a club is right, which I have to admit surprises me quite a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted January 17, 2007 Report Share Posted January 17, 2007 I would also like to note that it's not like every 7321 hand is an auto lose if you don't shift to a heart. It would require specific hand types. Hmm. Club to the ace, club ruff, diamond up. Do you duck or not? I suppose you duck and still win against 7321 with one trump loser and two heart losers, or two trump losers and one heart loser. Well, he would probably just take a ruffing finesse but my point was declarer having 7 trumps and only 1 trump loser seems very unlikely to me though. Even AKJTxxx produces 2 trump losers. And even then he has to deal with 5-1 trumps and a lot of side losers. If declarer is 7321 we are usually beating it no matterwhat we play here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sathyab Posted January 18, 2007 Report Share Posted January 18, 2007 So he is about twice as likely to have a doubleton club than a doubleton heart (the difference is greater than I first guessed). Interesting, thanks. Intuitively that felt right (thats why I shifted to a club when theres a possible extra hand type where a heart is right) but I had no idea what the math was. I tried the exercise of giving declarer a heart holding other than the stiff King and see if a heart switch fares worse than a club switch. I couldn't come up with any scenarios. ??? uhh.. AKJTxxxx x xx xx would be a protypical hand type. There are many of these. I would also like to note that it's not like every 7321 hand is an auto lose if you don't shift to a heart. It would require specific hand types.You're right. I was unduly influenced by the stiff King of hearts. With eight spades to the AKJT, declarer doesn't need the King of hearts to make the hand with a heart shift. I overlooked the fact he can simply ruff, pull two rounds of trumps and establish a Diamond for his club loser. Playing Obvious Shift doesn't help here on hands where declarer has a stiff heart, as partner would encourage a switch to the obvious shift suit, hearts with KXX as well Kx. It does better than standard methods when partner holds Jxx or Jx, but I find that almost incidental on this hand. The crux of the problem is that you must shift to the side suit where declarer has a possible loser before he can establish a Diamond trick and that seems pretty nearly impossible to do without guessing right. Agreed, that ff declarer does have a stiff, it's more likely in hearts than clubs, but I don't find it compelling enough to give up on hands where declarer has two little hearts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Finch Posted January 18, 2007 Report Share Posted January 18, 2007 Ah, I suppose you mean he is twice as likely to have "at least a doubleton club and heart shortness" than "at least a doubleton heart and club shortness"? Yes. Sorry for lack of clarity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halo Posted January 18, 2007 Report Share Posted January 18, 2007 OK then, show us the surprising maths. I can see nine hearts and eight clubs. How does that translate to twice as many of something? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.