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What is the percentage line?


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Bidding went:

1! - 2! - pass! - pass

3 - pass - 4 - pass

pass - pass

 

1 is 15+HCP any

2 shows 4+ and a Major (also 4+ card)

Partner's pass was followed by saying "oops", which we didn't use (otherwise I'll blast to game). He wanted to double :o

 

LHO leads A. You see

 

[hv=d=s&v=b&n=s76xhqtxdat8xcxxx&s=saqjtxxxhkxdjcaxx]133|200|Scoring: MP

West leads A, RHO plays 2 (normal count and attitude, but he's known to falsecard now and then so you can't always count on his signals)[/hv]

 

- What is the best line (% wise) of play in MP?

- What is the best line (% wise) of play in imps?

 

There are imo 2 possibilities: either you play low and hope to get that Q for a discard, or you drop K under the Ace to create another entry to catch 0-3.

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In either form of scoring, thank your lucky stars that you didn't receive a club lead (making the contract dependent on finding the spade K onside or picking up the stiff K offside).

 

The percentage play is to play for 2-1 spades (78%) vs. 3-0 onside (1/2 of 22%=11.0%).

 

Clearly playing for spades to be 2-1 is a 7-1 favorite, as opposed to creating two entries to dummy to finesse spades twice, regardless of the method of scoring.

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Ok, without any information it's clear that playing for 2-1 and a discard on Q is percentage play. However I think the odds have changed. Why does LHO lead A? We know he has at least 4 and at least 4. With AJxx it's a rather unusual lead, isn't it?
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