Damage limitation

[MickyB]

[hv=d=s&v=n&n=shkj965d853ck9863&s=sakqt863h2d76ct75]133|200|Scoring: IMP

World class opps.

 

4♠-P-P-X; AP

 

T1: ♥QKA2

T2: ♦J693

T3: ♦27Q5

T4: ♣Q

 

Do you cover?[/hv]

[Apollo81]

RHO has shown up with only the ♥A and presumably the ♦K and ♦J so far for his double. He seems guaranteed to have the ♣A. The question is: does he have ♣Ax or 3+ clubs?

 

I think RHO is more likely to double with

 

♠xx ♥Axxx ♦KJxx ♣AJx or

♠x ♥Axxxx ♦KJxx ♣AJx

 

than with

 

♠xxx ♥Axxxx ♦KJx ♣Ax or

♠xxx ♥Axxx ♦KJxx ♣Ax

 

I would cover.

[whereagles]

Not sure this matters much... we got caught speeding.. lol. Anyway, RHO should indeed have the ♣A, so cover seems good.

[pclayton]

I wouldn't cover but I know the hand too :) . Covering only gains with ♠Jxxx on left and ♣AJx, or ♣QJ opp ♣Axx right? Ducking gains with ♣Q opp ♣AJxx, ♣ QJx opp ♣Ax.

 

Not easy thats for sure.

 

By the way I defended your 4♠ bid fervently in the gallery, as did Danny Sprung.

[mikeh]

We can actually infer quite a lot on this hand. LHO presumably holds at most 2♥s, and the play in ♦ gives RHO KJxx in that suit. RHO must hold the ♣A for his double.

 

Assume that RHO is 5=4 in the reds: seems like a valid working assumption to me.

 

If he is 2=2 in the blacks, clearly we must duck: LHO is not leading the Q♣ from Qxx, so a cover sees the A and back to the J and a ♣ ruff, and we still lose a trump trick to (the probable) Jxxx.... losing 7 tricks. If we duck, RHO's A takes air on the second round, and we lose only 6 tricks.

 

If rho is 1=3 in the blacks, we are ok to cover if LHO holds QJ tight, but that is impossible: he led the ♥Q from a presumed Qx, and would surely have led the ♣Q from QJ tight instead. So if ♣ are 2=3, LHO had Qx and cover leads to cashing the A and the Jack and leading another for LHO to ruff from his Jxxxx trump holding, so he gets another trump trick anyway....and we lose 3 reds, 2♣, a ♣ ruff and a long trump, for 7 losers.

 

If we duck, we lose the 3 reds and 3♣s and 2 trump for 8 losers unless RHO holds the stiff 9 or J of ♠s.

 

If RHO is 0=5=4=4, then covering loses again! But, I don't think ♣ are 1=4, since the ♥Q lead suggests that LHO lacked the stiff ♣ (with J9xxxx of trump!).

 

This is a VERY tough problem, but I think that it is possible that rho might have passed 4♠ with xx A10xxx KJxx Ax while it is clear that he will double with x A10xxx KJxx AJx.

 

This means that I am going to go for 800 if I cover and 1100 if I duck... on a hand on which they probably can't make a game!

 

I don't remember the last time I decided to 'play it safe' in order to limit my white v white loss (against nothing!) to 'only' 800... probably because the mind has a way of blanking out horrific experiences :)

 

I cover.... even tho, having read Phil's post, I suspect that this was not best in real life.

[sathyab]

I was watching this hand at Garozzo's table as it was being played and remembered thinking that this was really a problem for the defenders to take all the tricks they're entitled to; there's almost nothing the declarer can do stop them. Asuuming that it's reasonable to cover the QofH, defense is in charge. At T2 a Diamond was led at both tables. Now if LHO wins and advances the Queen of Clubs, it doesn't really matter whether you cover or not. They get their club ruff with the second Diamond honor of LHO as the entry and it's 1100 shortly thereafter when the smoke clears. I wish they found that defense, don't you love it when you go for 1100 and your teammates tell you it's a tie !

[bid_em_up]

By the way I defended your 4♠ bid fervently in the gallery, as did Danny Sprung.

Somebody had a problem with the 4♠ bid? Geez.

[MickyB]

[hv=d=w&v=n&n=sj7542hqdkq94cqj2&w=sakqt863h2d76ct75&e=shkj965d853ck9863&s=s9hat8743dajt2ca4]399|300|Scoring: IMP

I covered, which allowed them 1100 (which is always there anyway if they put a club through without destroying communications first). Lea also opened 4♠, and our teammates picked up 800.[/hv]