jmc Posted January 9, 2007 Report Share Posted January 9, 2007 [hv=d=s&v=b&n=sak6h93dk8caqj763&s=sj52ha102daq104c1095]133|200|Scoring: MPPass-1♣-2NT-3NT[/hv] The lead is the 6 of hearts and RHO plays the Q. How do you plan the play? What are your mp considerations? jmc p.s. if you recognise the hand please don't "give it up" yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awm Posted January 9, 2007 Report Share Posted January 9, 2007 I suppose there is some sort of safety play where I duck the first two hearts, win the third, and play club to the ace. This guards against RHO having singleton ♣K. However, I'm not sure this is worthwhile even at IMP scoring since it blows three potential overtricks to guard against a pretty unlikely card position. Certainly at MP scoring I would not play this way. At MP I would win the lead and take the club finesse. If this loses to singleton king, oh well. Otherwise I have twelve easy tricks. I can play off the ♠AK first to see if the queen falls doubleton. Otherwise run all the clubs ending with: 69K83 J-AQT4- Assuming RHO doesn't throw the ♠Q I can pitch the spade jack on the last club. If RHO has correctly pitched all of his hearts and spades (leaving LHO to guard both majors) then I'm on a guess whether RHO started with Jxxxx of diamonds or xxxxx (if RHO started with six diamonds I will always make 7). However this gives opponents the opportunity to pitch wrong (i.e. RHO holds onto a heart) to give me an easy making seven. Assuming opponents pitch correctly, the odds seem to favor finessing for the diamond jack. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bid_em_up Posted January 9, 2007 Report Share Posted January 9, 2007 I suppose there is some sort of safety play where I duck the first two hearts, win the third, and play club to the ace. This guards against RHO having singleton ♣K. However, I'm not sure this is worthwhile even at IMP scoring since it blows three potential overtricks to guard against a pretty unlikely card position. Certainly at MP scoring I would not play this way. At MP I would win the lead and take the club finesse. If this loses to singleton king, oh well. Otherwise I have twelve easy tricks. I can play off the ♠AK first to see if the queen falls doubleton. Otherwise run all the clubs ending with: 69K83 J-AQT4- Assuming RHO doesn't throw the ♠Q I can pitch the spade jack on the last club. If RHO has correctly pitched all of his hearts and spades (leaving LHO to guard both majors) then I'm on a guess whether RHO started with Jxxxx of diamonds or xxxxx (if RHO started with six diamonds I will always make 7). However this gives opponents the opportunity to pitch wrong (i.e. RHO holds onto a heart) to give me an easy making seven. Assuming opponents pitch correctly, the odds seem to favor finessing for the diamond jack. Adam, having won the first heart, if the club loses to any king offside holding, you are likely down or only making 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted January 9, 2007 Report Share Posted January 9, 2007 Brutal hand. I would win the lead as well. If hearts are 4-4 then I gain nothing by holding up twice, but can lose if the club finesse is on. It's only if hearts are 5-3 and the CK is off that I lose something by holding up twice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awm Posted January 9, 2007 Report Share Posted January 9, 2007 Yeah but I'm not sure how I was planning to ever make the hand if RHO has ♣Kx. I only have eight tricks (2♠, 1♥, 4♦, 1♣) and while I suppose there's some ridiculous throw in if RHO happened to play ♥Q at trick one from ♥KQJ (weird play anyway) it seems crazy to play for this lie of the cards. I'm not betting on hearts 4-4 with RHO's 2NT call. :unsure: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted January 9, 2007 Report Share Posted January 9, 2007 Yeah but I'm not sure how I was planning to ever make the hand if RHO has ♣Kx. I only have eight tricks (2♠, 1♥, 4♦, 1♣) and while I suppose there's some ridiculous throw in if RHO happened to play ♥Q at trick one from ♥KQJ (weird play anyway) it seems crazy to play for this lie of the cards. LHO was on lead I think (so has the long hearts), so if the club finesse is off its with the short hearts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awm Posted January 9, 2007 Report Share Posted January 9, 2007 Yeah but I'm not sure how I was planning to ever make the hand if RHO has ♣Kx. I only have eight tricks (2♠, 1♥, 4♦, 1♣) and while I suppose there's some ridiculous throw in if RHO happened to play ♥Q at trick one from ♥KQJ (weird play anyway) it seems crazy to play for this lie of the cards. LHO was on lead I think (so has the long hearts), so if the club finesse is off its with the short hearts. You must've missed the bidding. RHO is almost surely 5-5 or more in the reds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted January 9, 2007 Report Share Posted January 9, 2007 Yeah but I'm not sure how I was planning to ever make the hand if RHO has ♣Kx. I only have eight tricks (2♠, 1♥, 4♦, 1♣) and while I suppose there's some ridiculous throw in if RHO happened to play ♥Q at trick one from ♥KQJ (weird play anyway) it seems crazy to play for this lie of the cards. LHO was on lead I think (so has the long hearts), so if the club finesse is off its with the short hearts. You must've missed the bidding. RHO is almost surely 5-5 or more in the reds. heh i interpretted the bidding as uncontested pass-1C-2N-3N. Mainly because south has a 2N bid and 3N over an unusual 2N would be very weird. edit: and south was dealer. I'm pretty sure OP meant this auction to be uncontested. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bid_em_up Posted January 9, 2007 Report Share Posted January 9, 2007 I think the auction is actually 1N-p-2N-p-3N, Not 1N-(2N)-3N Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bid_em_up Posted January 9, 2007 Report Share Posted January 9, 2007 This is a tough decision. The answer is somewhat dependent on how good you judge the field to be. If the field is really good, if the club finesse is on, then 6C or 6N makes, and you still have some other chances in 6C (pitch heart on diamond before taking club finesse) or in 6N if a heart isnt led at trick one, when the club finesse loses. Since many in the field may be in either of these contracts, you will always lose to them, when the club finesse is on, and in many cases, even where it is off, as well. Now, it is best to take the safety play in 3N to ensure that you make 3N, whenever it is makeable. (LHO could have led a heart from xxx and the club finesse is losing, so you cant make 3N, no matter what you do). Win the 3rd heart and take the club finesse, ensuring your plus score whenever one is available to you. If the field is average, it depends on whether you want to play for top, or if you want to play for average plus. Playing for top, win the first heart and run the club 10. Assuming it wins, you have 12 tricks with good chances for 13. If it loses, there is always the chance that hearts are 4-4 and you still make 3 or that RHO held KQ doubleton (or maybe QJ) and the suit is uncashable. Playing for average plus, win the 3rd heart and take the club finesse. Now you will make when hearts are 4-4 or they were originally 5-3 (with the opening leader holding 5). In the latter case, you'll have an overtrick for what is most likely better than average. If the field is extremely weak, play for average plus. Some people wont even reach 3N, or will manage to get to 4C or 5C in an attempt to reach the club slam that disrails. 3N+1 (or more) should be a decent result. At the table, I will play as outlined for a good field if in a good field (I am in a poor contract when in a good field, so am willing to take an anti-percentage play), and play for top in any other field. Sometimes this wins, sometimes it dont. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted January 9, 2007 Report Share Posted January 9, 2007 At matchpoints I'd try for 13 tricks and take the lead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmc Posted January 9, 2007 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2007 Bidding was uncontested. Sorry if this wasn't clear. Ops Passed throughout. jmc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmc Posted January 10, 2007 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2007 This hand comes from Match Point Bridge by H.W. Kelsey. It can be found on page 129 in my version. It is one of the later hands on "Dummy Play". I posted the hand because I kept thinking that ducking the H twice seemed to make sense. Sure, we were behind the field that recieved any other lead but such is life. We could still make the contract when the hook was off if RHO only had 3 H. Anyway I get now why my thinking was wrong. Kelsey had this to say, "The contract is normal but the lead unfavoarble. At pairs you can not settle for 11 when 12 is there, so the hold up is out of the question. If the club is right the JD or QS could drop or there might be a squeeze. The only chance of sharing the match-points with those who got a different lead is to assume the club finesse is right." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted January 10, 2007 Report Share Posted January 10, 2007 I really hate this... "in this field...in that field...the field.." blah blah thinking on hands like this. Who knows what's going to happen elsewhere. It seems to me like the much stronger argument is the math argument. If hearts are 4-4 with the CK off we lose nothing by failing to hold up. If hearts are 5-3 with the CK off we lose tricks by failing to hold up. If hearts are 4-4 with the king onside we gain tricks by not holding up, and if hearts are 5-3 with the CK onside we gain tricks by holding up. Each case is about equally likely. So we're going to be losing tricks in 1 case if we don't hold up, but we gain tricks in 2 cases. The 4th is a break even. So as far as trick expectation goes (which is essentially what MP is about) we are giving up a large amount of tricks by holding up twice. That is a far stronger clue than any MP considerations we may be having against the field, and I'm shocked kelsey didn't even mention this in his book. People get so caught up in the field they forget to take their tricks. Trust me if you're maximizing your trick expectation, you will win a lot of matchpoint events without ever even thinking about the field. There are very few hands where you should go against maximum trick expectancy because of matchpoints considerations. VERY few. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted January 11, 2007 Report Share Posted January 11, 2007 Matchpoints is supposed to be fun, so I won't spoil my chance for 13 tricks on a double squeeze by even a single hold-up. :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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