BPO 8 Hand 5

[mikeh]

We are at mps, none vul. and after LHO opens 3♦, passed around to us, we are looking at KJ965 QJ753 4 Q6

 

Do we or don't we? And if we do get involved, what is our poison? The double which may well be left in, with partner expecting a tad more defence than we hold? Or a guess of a major? Or the cue-bid, which at least gets us to the best major suit fit, but which also risks disaster, either because RHO is sitting with a good hand and short ♦s or because partner takees us a little too seriously?

 

The responses were pretty much split: 7 doublers, 6 passers, 5 3♠ bidders and 2 courageous (or foolhardy) 4♦ bidders.

 

Torn between the two leading vote-getters was Frances, whose double was explained:' Double, second, very close choice is to pass.... but we just can't bear to pass. Prepared for -470, but at least it's only matchpoints'.

 

A valid point: I suspect that we'd have seen fewer doubles had this been imps.

 

Another nervous doubler was Justin: 'Double. I'm here for you pard. If partner has a trap pass, I need to reopen for him and at matchpoints white against white we need to compete with 5-5 in the majors. If he bids 4♣ I will cry and pass, hoping not to get doubled (Ed: crying may not be the best way to avoid a double) The other risk is that I endplay him into passing with a marginal hand and we can't beat them'.

 

Ritong was even more pessimistic, noting that his double might end in -570! However, he judged that we need to be bidding, he didn't want to force to the 4-level (via the cue bid) and he didn't want to guess a suit, hence no 3Major. That left only the risky double.

 

Phil Clayton refuses to sell out, and hoped that his double would not be left in. Choosing a major himself would be too much of a stab in the dark. He commented that over 4♣, a bid of 4♥ would be ELC (equal level conversion). I doubt that this would be the popular expert treatment: I suspect that most would treat 4♥ over 4♣ as a powerful hand with some flexibility: maybe a very good 3=6=1=3 or the like. Note that Justin, who also rightly feared 4♣, felt that his only option over 4♣ was to pass.

 

More conservative, but unwilling to go quietly, were the 3♠ bidders.

 

Fred:'A takeout dbl could be a big winner but I refuse to make that bid on a hand that might not take a single trick on defence....it also rates to work out poorly if partner bids 3N or 4♣. But passing out 3♦ is too big a position at matchpoints. Although most experts play that 4♦ doesn't promise the world's fair, I can't bring myself to make that bid. I will choose 3♠, hoping to catch a fit or, if partner bids 3N, pulling to 4♥ will work out'.

 

Ben contemplated 3♥, intending to run to 3♠ if RHO doubled, but dismissed the idea as too pessimistic. It wasn't that he was happy with any choice: he summed up his feelings with 'ARGGHHH!' After deciding that 4♦ and double were too much and Pass wasn't enough, he settled on 3♠, planning, as Fred, to pull 3N to 4♥, and trust partner to work out that he had a weak hand since he had not bid 4♦.

 

The passers, appropriately, had little to say for their call. Keylime: 'Ouch. Very Ouch. Stay fixed. Pass'. Temp3600 noted that the quality of the field might be important, and passed after concluding that none of the possible active bids were attractive.

 

Ng reminded us that Pass is sometimes the most difficult call to make. He was not happy with his choice, but felt that double or 4♦ were too risky.

 

Double was, despite his handle, the happiest passer: 'Pass, Pass, Pass'. He noted that the problem with bidding a major was that, when you could make exactly 3, you would almost surely be in 4. He felt that any active call carried too much a risk of getting too high or of defending an unbeatable 3♦.

 

Moving to the opposite end of the spectrum, we have the 4♦ bidders. MikeRJ hopes that partner 'belongs to the school of thought "don't push to hard for slams over prempts"'

 

The panel's vote favoured the double... voted for by Justin, Frances, and Ritong. Fred was the 3♠ bidder amongst the experts while Ng was the lone passer.

 

I am still up in the air and my close vote would be for double, accompanied by a silent ARRGGGHHHH!

 

At least I score 100 on this one :D Add that to my possible -470 and I lose only 370.

 

The scores:

 

Double 100

3♠ 80

P 80

4♦ 40

[inquiry]

ARRGHHHHHH again....

 

this hand, is as I said, in my reply "Board 5... Most troubling hand of the set. Nothing is suitable. " . In my long reply, I suggested reasons why every reasonably possible bid (pass, 3h, 3s, 4D, dbl) where wrong.

 

Nothing in the comments above change my view that in fact on this hand, nothing is suitable. In an ealier post, I commented that I didn't pass on any of the hands, and surely pass must be right on some of them. I had (have) a sneaky suspecion that pass is the winning bid on this hand at the tble, but in final analysis, i thought some action was called for at mp... because letting them play 3♦ peacefully hardly seems right.

 

Double I eliminated out of three concerns. The first is the obvious partner might pass 3♦X. I was worried that we might beat this due to my horrible defensive hand, or that we might not beat it enough if we had a good 5-3 fit in a major and partner has a marginal pass. I was also concerned that partner might bid 4♣ in which case i have no choice but pass, and if he couldn't have bid 4♣ immediately, being in 4♣ doesn't rate to be good either. Finally he might also try 3NT and well, my hand will not cause him to jump for joy. The only good thing that can happy after double are, 1) he bids a major, 2) he passes and we actually beat it one when we can;t make anything at the three level or we beat it three when we can make game in a major. But if he is going to bid a major and it works out ok for us, my bidding 3♠ then 4♥ will probably result in a similar result.

 

On the down side, my 3♠ is akin to the 4♦ bid that didn't score well, because I am going to force to 4M, but i hope that the auction I picked will convey the message that i am weak (no double, no immediate 4♦). I think (hope) i will find the right strain (if it is not 3♦x) and we surely will stay at the 4 level, but even that might be too high.

 

Very, very tough hand... no one seems to happy with their choice...

[whereagles]

I doubled.. with trepidation.. lol.

 

If pard were trigger-happy I wouldn't consider that dbl, though.

[Double !]

We are at mps, none vul. and after LHO opens 3♦, passed around to us, we are looking at KJ965 QJ753 4 Q6

 

Double was, despite his handle, the happiest passer: 'Pass, Pass, Pass'. He noted that the problem with bidding a major was that, when you could make exactly 3, you would almost surely be in 4. He felt that any active call carried too much a risk of getting too high or of defending an unbeatable 3♦.

I don't recall saying that I was happy to pass.

 

What I was trying to say is that the honor structure of the hand is so very poor both for offense and for defense. 1) the hand is very quacky with mucho losers, 2) I have, maybe, one potentially favorably located card for defensive purposes (the S-K). The hand just seems like a potential trap to me. Why did rho pass when partner couldn't ake action? In retrospect, maybe i need to bid 3M knowing that I might play in 4M -50 or -100, beating -110 (assuming the opps make 110 and I haven't walked into a major trap.)

 

DHL

 

BTW: Is ARRRGGGHHHHHH now a legal bid? Is it alertable?

[whereagles]

ARGH is an onomatopey