Guest Jlall Posted December 31, 2006 Report Share Posted December 31, 2006 Kx Qxx Jxxx Jxxx. RHO opens 7N, you double, everyone passes. Your lead? What if it's MP in a weak field?What if it's total points? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted December 31, 2006 Report Share Posted December 31, 2006 x♠. Cannot imagine RHO opening 7NT on AQ of spades and 12 (would-be) top tricks. I'll just let him play off his winners and take one of my Jxxx in the end. Of course, if ROH's boozed anything can happen, but I think in that case he'll go down anyway.. lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeh Posted December 31, 2006 Report Share Posted December 31, 2006 Opener has three stiff Aces and a long suit he thinks is solid: may even be ♥s. One thing we know: it is not ♠s. Since I expect to beat this hand no matter what I lead, I am going for the big set, regardless of the strength of the field or form of scoring: the ♠K is a standout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Finch Posted December 31, 2006 Report Share Posted December 31, 2006 I like the small spade lead as well, although a heart is also a possibility. Either minor feels suicidal. There is something to be said for the SK, but declarer is too likely to have singleton ace. [edit: Mike said nearly the same thing while I was typing, but he's chosen a different spade] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdeegan Posted December 31, 2006 Report Share Posted December 31, 2006 :) small spadeWhy did I double? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeh Posted December 31, 2006 Report Share Posted December 31, 2006 There is something to be said for the SK, but declarer is too likely to have singleton ace. [edit: Mike said nearly the same thing while I was typing, but he's chosen a different spade]The whole point of the K lead is precisely to play for declarer holding the stiff A. Of course, if dummy holds the Q, we'd wish we'd led small, but the K never gives away the contract: dummy has no entry, and if partner holds long ♠ with the Q10 or QJ, the K is a big home run... it's 50-50, and when we have literally no clue, I tend to go for the big payoff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted December 31, 2006 Report Share Posted December 31, 2006 :) small spadeWhy did I double? Because on your lead you are roughly 100 % to beat it 2 tricks, so you found an excellent X. We know for sure that declarer has the stiff ace of spades, and we have all of the other suits stopped. The question is whether or not we make the safe lead to beat it 2, or if we go for down a LOT. If we catch partner with good and long spades we may well beat them 6 or so on the SK lead. I feel like at total points the SK lead is stand out. You are risking 1 undertrick to gain anywhere from 1-5 extra undertricks in what is essentially a random layout of the spade suit between LHO and partner. However, in a weak matchpoint field you have already done very well to double. Indeed, one poster asked why we did double. If you beat them 2 in 7N X you rate to get a great score, since there is no way that people in a weak field are going to even consider leading spades. Plus their RHOs may open 7 of the long minor instead of 7N. So I feel like in those conditions only, a low spade lead has a lot going for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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