To Bid or Not to Bid

[Winstonm]

"It is not that the 4333 hand will bid 3, but partner is not excluded from bidding 3 with heart shortness and dummy will surely disappoint."

 

Winston, your point is taken, in theory anyway, but I have been doing this for a while and the types of problems you point out are rare.

 

Have you played the slut style much?  :huh:

 

Peter

Peter, I didn't even know there was a slut style - it was always the lack of style that attracted me. :angry:

 

Of course, my views are slanted because I don't play a lot of matchpoints, and I'd say when the object of the game is frequency of gain/loss instead of total gain/loss that there is a lot to be said for mixing it up more.

[pbleighton]

"Peter, I didn't even know there was a slut style"

 

The excitement is... infectious :huh:

 

"Of course, my views are slanted because I don't play a lot of matchpoints, and I'd say when the object of the game is frequency of gain/loss instead of total gain/loss that there is a lot to be said for mixing it up more."

 

Well, much to your surprise I'm sure, I play mostly matchpoints :angry:

 

Peter

[Guest Jlall]

I find it interesting that so far everyone is assuming a 9-card fit - how many of those also are proponents of 4-card overcalls?

I think you're wrong on this one. Think about the type of hands you make 4 card overcalls with. They likely have some heart length, otherwise you would make a t/o X. Given that we know partner is short in hearts, I would say there are EXTREMELY low odds that he has a 4 card overcall.

Sure it's unlikely - but there is: AKQx, x, xxx, Axxxx so it is within the realms of possibilties, and I've seen some espouse much worse than this.

 

Still, that's not the point of it all - it's whether it is better to have a more constructive minimum raise agreement or not.

umm...I overcall a LOT with 4 card suits but I would think that not Xing over 1H with that is just horrible, there's no reason other than lead value to misdescribe your hand when you have a perfectly normal X available, and you'll probably be on lead yourself.

 

Anyways, I agree with you that none of that is really the point.

 

In constructive bidding, we are required to bid opposite an opening 1S bid as partner can have just short of a 2C bid, but when the overcall is somewhat limited we do not have that constraint. Would your views change if RHO had passed or doubled?

 

I would raise MORE aggressively after an overcall than an opening (where I would bid 1N sometimes with a fit). In competitive auctions it's more important to raise than in uncontested auctions, especially when there is a risk that they will buy the hand if it's passed out. The raise here is not for constructive merits, it is to fight for the partscore. Obviously if partner is about to bid game or guaranteed me he would balance I would rather pass, but I have no such guarantees.

 

As for if RHO had passed or Xed, I would still raise because the QTx is not such a downgrade anymore (its much more likely to be useful if they don't raise).

[flytoox]

I vote for pass. 4333 and defensive cards. I dont want to encourage pd to bid on.

[Winstonm]

The raise here is not for constructive merits, it is to fight for the partscore.

 

But isn't the point whether or not you should be fighting for the partscore?

 

Give partner a normal overcall of AKxxx, xx, Axx, xxx and all we accomplish is giving up -200 at the two level most likely. And if we push them to 3H, they are most apt to make.

 

If partner has a little better, AKQxxx, x, J10x, Axx, and we can easily go for -200 at 3S and partner is unlikely to pass out 2H.

 

In my dim wits, to fight for the partscore only makes sense when I actually might make my partscore contract - I don't care so much if I give up -110 verses -100.

 

So to me it seems the risks of getting overboard outweigh any advantage in contracting for a raise, especially when the hands where we are most likly to make 2S partner will not sell out. Granted, there are hands that can be constructed where 2S makes and partner does not have a balancing call - but when you weigh those hands against the number of hands where 2S and 3S are both way too high it is probably a washout.

[Winstonm]

As a side note it is interesting that in the Spingold the Italians bid 6 deals to game that the Nickell team only bid to a partscore out of 64 boards. All 6 game bids went down and still the Italians almost won.

 

See. If they would have stopped short on even on of those and made a partscore they would have won - would have won in a cakewalk stopping in all 6. ;)

[dake50]

Seems 2S here, but the interesting question is 'If this is single raise bottom, how are better raises partitioned if at all? Single raise: 1Q working(1 trick expected) + 3+support; what do X, 2NT, 3S, P describe? System considerations allow this weak to bid? What are/should they be?

[Guest Jlall]

Give partner a normal overcall of AKxxx, xx, Axx, xxx and all we accomplish is giving up -200 at the two level most likely. And if we push them to 3H, they are most apt to make.

That is very pessimistic ;) If partner has this the opps are going to bid 3H probably 85 % of the time in real life. People don't sell out to 2S with a large majority of the high cards and very few high cards and no length in spades very often. When they do sell out it's very likely spades are 2-2. If spades are 2-2 we have a lot of chances for -1 (HJx of hearts onside on a normal heart lead, AK of clubs onside, DK onside, etc). Even if we go -2 it doesn't really matter at imps. Much more likely is that they will get to 3H down. Sure 3H will usually make but we have chances for a club trick, one or two spade tricks, one or two diamond tricks, a heart trick, etc. Thinking they're just going to make it is very pessimistic. All I know is I would much rather be defending 2H than 3H, and if I was playing 2S instead of bidding 2H I wouldn't really mind. If partner had this hand I am SURE it would be right to bid 2S.

 

 

If partner has a little better, AKQxxx, x, J10x, Axx, and we can easily go for -200 at 3S and partner is unlikely to pass out 2H.

 

 

-200 in 3S? You are very unlucky :) They would have to get a diamond ruff and the club would have to be offside. If that is the case they are cold for at least 4H. Isn't it more likely that you'll make 3S when they are cold for 3 and maybe 4 hearts?

 

Partner wouldn't pass out 2H with that hand, but what if LHO bid 3H? Maybe he would bid 3S anyways, but maybe not.

 

It's strange because the example hands you gave to back up pass might have been hands I chose to back up a 2S bid :)

[neilkaz]

This is a very difficult decision and as much I want to pass this 3 queens of garbage I cannot do it even when 4333 since we almost certainly have 9+♠.

 

I do trust that PD will not bury me for supporting with support and will invite me to game with most of his very good overcalls rather than blasting to a dead 4♠x.

 

.. neilkaz ..

[whereagles]

Opposite an overbidder pard, PASS on the spot. Opposite a saner pard, I suppose I could mutter 2♠.

[mike777]

Opposite an overbidder pard, PASS on the spot. Opposite a saner pard, I suppose I could mutter 2♠.

And which pard are you ;)

[whereagles]

I'm aggressive, but not reckless ;)

[ulven]

This isn't so much about style and LOTT; this is about sanity and hand evaluation. This is an easy pass. Will not be correct every time, but statistically I'm sure it's not even close.

 

- Horrible shape.

- Can't stand lead.

- No aces/kings.

- Vuln.

- If p overcalled light, raise may help them bid a game not attempted otherwise. With this hand, not clear if that's godd/bad (depends a bit on heart J etc.).

[mike777]

why is pard overcalling light when vul?...no why is pard overcalling at unfav vul...does he think our leads are idiotic if he does not bid?

[000002]

i vote 2♠ raising

but i am sorry to say that i don't read the whole replying article about passing,because i am very busy now

 

;)((((((((((((((((((

 

 

regards 000002

[mr1303]

A couple of points:

 

1) 3S here is sick at any vulnerability. QTx in hearts is completely worthless, and I'd be happier with xxx instead, and only a 4 count.

 

2) This isn't our hand at all, unless partner will bid again, in which case I can support spades later. Since any heart finesses that may be required rate to be onside, trying to push the opponents into a game that rates to be cold doesn't look to be a good idea.

 

3) A raise in spades might blow a lead on defence, if partner has a suit like KJxxx

[Finch]

If 2H ends the auction I think it's so likely to lead to a terrible result that I can't bring myself to pass.

What he said.

 

I really cannot stomach bidding 3S on this hand, but only two days ago we missed a good save when I 'only' raised to two on a very similar hand (admittedly that was game all). Partner had no reason to bid on.

 

The best reason not to raise is Mark's point that it may lead us to blow a trick on lead.

[ulven]

why is pard overcalling light when vul?...no why is pard overcalling at unfav vul...does he think our leads are idiotic if he does not bid?

Just a point about light overcalls when vul:

I played against Lauria-Versace 2 weeks ago in Milano. Versace overcalled 3D in 2nd position (i.e. unpassed partner) over a weak 2sp red against white (teams) on Kxx/x/QJTxxxx/QJ !!

 

Lauria had -/ATxxxx/AKx/T8xx and bid 4NT good raise over 4sp to his right and then passed 5D. Just a spot-on +600...

[Winstonm]

It's strange because the example hands you gave to back up pass might have been hands I chose to back up a 2S bid 

 

 

That's because you are still young and idealistic - and you've been hanging around Hamman way too much. :P

 

Seriously, though, I appreciate your input. I see your points but am still nervous about raising, especially as the few cards I have argue for defending rather than playing, and unless partner produces the AK of spades, just about any other lead will turn out better for our side.

[Fluffy]

I find it close, I will just raise because pass is too agressive.

[000002]

leading from ♠KJxxx? what is the distribution of ♠ outside,2-2 or 3-1?

we get lossing 75% of 22,50%of 3-1.

when the distribution is 22 on ♠, i believe that they will seek 3nt before 4♥;and they should take a coperation DBL before their 3♥ overcall.

 

i don't worry about the leading question,but i think i ought to take a plenty press on opps .

 

regards 000002:(

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

 

2S, ... probably at any vul.

I dont really care if partner makes

regular overcalls on 4card suits,

I have 4 card support and I raise.

 

We have the spades, ... and this

message I am going to send.

Take away a spade and give me a heart,

and you may talk me into passing, but

not with 4 card support.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[P_Marlowe]

"The top of of the overcall does have some bearing, but even then you can easily get too high with a 13-14 count and a 6-card suit, no?"

 

A good 14, yes.

 

13s, hardly ever.

 

I can be pretty pushy bidding games when we open the bidding, especially with the opps silent, but when the opps start the bidding, i'm not nearly so optimistic.

 

Peter

Here, Peter, I'm not so worried about overbidding to game but in overbidding to the 3-level.

 

Even for LOTT advocates, this 4333 argues for a reduction in total tricks, so assuming 17 total tricks to start that is reduced to 16 - according to LOTT if they can make 9 tricks we can only make 7, down 2.

 

It is not that the 4333 hand will bid 3, but partner is not excluded from bidding 3 with heart shortness and dummy will surely disappoint.

Hi,

 

if he bids 3S, he should have more than just

heart shortage and a min overcall.

He should either have add. strength, which

means the 9 card trump fit and the side Queens

will be good news, or he will have a 6 carder,

which makes the LOTT raise to 18 (reduce the

number by 1) and you still have a fair chance

to escape for -1.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[Apollo81]

2♠. I can't imagine passing with some high cards and 4-card support. A good player won't have only 4♠s on this hand

[sathyab]

The problem with hands like this is that we tend to be influenced by results that occured as a result of an action on a given lay-out, not because the action was the percentage call or not, but that it worked or didn't work on the given occasion. Are there any simulators out there that're sophisticated enough to analyze most likley results of a raise or pass ? I tried doing some search for simulators a while ago but there didn't appear to be much non-sales kind of information.