Winner takes it all?

[nielsfoged]

[hv=d=n&v=e&n=sat92hakjt3dk653c&s=s6h6daqjt7caq6542]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

#459 Pairs Skandinavia Benelux Club at BBO 22 Dec. Last board of 12:

You have reached 7♦ flawlessly, and without interventions, but after the ♠8 lead, it doesn't look so easy anymore. What is your plan as Declarer (South)?

[Halo]

In real life I think I would assume the spade is not singleton and play:

 

Ace of spades

Ace and King of hearts to see if anything good happens

Spade ruff (low)

Ace of clubs (throw a spade)

Club ruff

Heart ruff

Club ruff (low)

 

If clubs aren't set up heart ruff, club ruff (high if West doesn't show out or fails to ruff high) etc

 

Not great, but makes if king clubs come down in three, and diamonds are no worse than 3-1, or King of clubs comes down in four and diamonds are 2-2.

 

There are various extra chances in hearts and extra chances of a complete cross ruff if West has three clubs and small trumps.

[Finch]

I have 9 top tricks, so if I play on a complete cross-ruff I would need to ruff 4 clubs in dummy. That isn't going to work, so I have to set up either clubs or hearts.

 

Setting up clubs needs either Kxx or the suit 4-3 with 3 ruffs, and I don't have the entries for this (SA, S ruff, CA, C ruff, trump, club ruff, S ruff, club ruff high, can't get to hand unless..) so this needs Kxx clubs or trumps 2-2.

 

What if we try and set dummy up?

Don't have quite the entries for that either, unless the HQ comes down in 3. If it does, we can play SA, S ruff, HAK ruff, CA (S pitch), C ruff, S ruff and we still need trumps 2-2, so that's even worse.

 

I'll go with Halo's line

[nielsfoged]

[hv=d=n&v=e&n=sat92hakjt3dk652c&w=s8753hq742d983ckj&e=skqj4h985d4ct9873&s=s6h6daqjt7caq6542]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

A rather lucky lay of the cards for South in 7♦.

Even the inferior plan I chose "at the table" resulted in 13 tricks (sorry opps):

♠A

♠->♦7

♥->J!!

♥A+♥K, ♦->T, ♣A and now cross-ruff relying on ♣ 4-3/3-4 or as here Kx in West.

Just an approx 33% chance, and I have now learned from a Danish national (Michael Askgaard) that there is a much better way, which I believe is also superior to Halo's plan (approx. 45% and 40%, respectively, according to my rather primitive calculations based on a priori probabilities):

♠A

♠->♦7

♣A

♣->♦2

♠->♦T

♣->♦5

If ♣K drops out now, draw trumps and claim (unless ♦ 4-0)

If ♣K is still out there all by itself:

♥A+♥K

Major->♦J (better choose the one were East cannot discard!)

Now in the 4 card end position play ♣6 from the hand's ♦AQ+♣Q6 towards ♦K6.

 

This plan also makes very frequently, when West holds just 2♣s together with ♥Q. For the actual lay of cards, where the ♣K drops already at the first ♣ruff, go for a total of 1♠, 2♣, 2♣-ruffs, 5♦ in hand and 3♥ tricks by a finess.

 

Niels