Hand I kibbed

[1eyedjack]

[hv=d=w&v=b&n=s864ha64d85ckqj96&w=sq5h983dkq732c875&e=sjt932hq75da64ct2&s=sak7hkjt2djt9ca43]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv] Not one pair played in the top spot of 4♥. Not one pair played in 5♣ which requires a guess in ♥ but at least has a play. The latter is I think forgivable - 5♣ is not so great if ♦ break 4-4 or ♦ blocked or no ♦ lead, but 4♥ does seem to be the right place to be.

 

Any takers? Assume uncontested auction.

[cherdano]

This is easy:

P P P 1N P 3N AP

[Codo]

Indeed: This is a clear 3 NT contract, which will fail quite often. So what?

[the hog]

Playing a 15-17 NT the bidding would go , P P P 1N P 3N

in 99% of cases, including with my regular pd. Not all games make.

 

There is a convention, rarely played but very useful, which goes along the lines of

1NT 3D - small doubleton, now 3H suggestion, 4H.

 

Playing a strong C relay system, you might reach 4H

[neilkaz]

Playing 15-17 this is routine 1NT-3NT and just bad luck and likely there will be more times when 4♥ is set on a 4-2 or worse split when 3NT rolls home, noting sometimes ♦ split 4-4.

 

Perhaps weak NTers who play 4 card majors may be able to reach 4♥ starting with a 1♥ opening ?

 

.. neilkaz ..

[Echognome]

Playing a strong C relay system, you might reach 4H

Not sure about this. It's certainly not clearcut in any of the strong club relays I play.

 

P - 1♣(strong)

2♣(1) - 2♦®

3♦(2) - ?

 

® relay

(1) Positive , 5+ clubs, no 4cM

(2) 3=3=2=5

 

Your most likely game is still 3NT. You won't know if North has a diamond stopper or not, but it is not designed to find out. Others may be able to show the north hand via a balanced positive. Either way you have to identify there is no diamond stopper.

[EricK]

Playing 15-17 this is routine 1NT-3NT and just bad luck and likely there will be more times when 4♥ is set on a 4-2 or worse split when 3NT rolls home, noting sometimes ♦ split 4-4.

 

Perhaps weak NTers who play 4 card majors may be able to reach 4♥ starting with a 1♥ opening ?

 

.. neilkaz ..

I can imagine a stone age Acol sequence like

1♥ 2♣

2NT 3♥

3♠ 4♥

 

3♠ shows concentration of strength and pinpoints ♦ weakness.

[the hog]

Playing a strong C relay system, you might reach 4H

Not sure about this. It's certainly not clearcut in any of the strong club relays I play.

 

P - 1♣(strong)

2♣(1) - 2♦®

3♦(2) - ?

 

® relay

(1) Positive , 5+ clubs, no 4cM

(2) 3=3=2=5

 

Your most likely game is still 3NT. You won't know if North has a diamond stopper or not, but it is not designed to find out. Others may be able to show the north hand via a balanced positive. Either way you have to identify there is no diamond stopper.

Yes granted. I did say "might". When you discover a doubleton D opposite JTx you MIGHT decide that 4M could be better. (Then when dummy tracks the xx = AK!).

 

Incidentally I now remember, Zia and Rosenberg play that 1NT 3M = small xx. I am not sure if it is any 1NT 3?

[1eyedjack]

It is not clear to me whether the first two responders thought that 3NT was the most desirable contract or alternatively whether they accept that it is not but regard the superior contract as unbiddable.

 

I don't think that there is anything outrageous or bizarre about these hands, and I wonder whether we are being lulled into an attitude that all is ok because no-one else finds 4♥. Well, a flat board is still a missed swing. I get the feel that in the decades of evolution of bidding theory, you sometimes get points of quantum leap where before the leap everyone cosily thinks something is unbiddable and so cannot be bothered about it on the grounds that at least no-one else has an edge, only to get a rude awakening when someone else does come up with an edge.

 

I personally don't see an answer to this, but perhaps it causes me to doubt whether I have assigned the right priorities to showing certain hand types, the cost of which is that I have to blast 3N on shape a lot.

 

At the table that I kibbed, they were playing a weak 1N system with 4 card majors, and the uncontested auction went

1♥-2♣-2N-3N-P.

thought that they had a fighting chance after the 2N rebid.

[the hog]

Playing a weak NT system with 4 card Ms we would bid 1C 2C 2N 3NT

Unless you specifically play something like the Rosenberg gadget you will get to many 3NTs like this. Now even if you do get to 4H, you have 2 D losers off the top and have to pick up the H for 1 loser only. How are you going to play the H suit? Further what happens if you don't have the H 10? Now 4H is against the odds!

[EricK]

Maybe the best ( :) ) sequence is (in a strong ♣ context)

1♣ 2♣

2♦* 2NT

3NT

 

2♦ is asking for more information (normally a 4 card major). Now East is on lead and is unlikley to find a ♦ lead. However, West might double the 2♦ bid for the lead (or make some overcall in ♦). Now we have a fighting chance to reach 4♥ as the opponents have revealed their secret weapon.

[Finch]

I am entirely happy with the auction 1NT (strong) 3NT. Without Deep Finesse defending this only goes off when there is a 5- or 6- card diamond suit on lead and they aren't blocked. That's about 65% + the times when LHO has a 4-card major as well as five diamonds and decides to lead it instead, or has a very weak hand with Kxxxx diamonds and decides to lead his short major instead....

 

4H is harder to evaluate. It's certainly a fair spot, and if we had an auction that pinpointed the diamond lead against 3NT I would rather play in 4H. But 4H is not obviously massively better than 3NT. It's roughly on the heart finesse with hearts 4-2, or hearts 3-3, which is about 65% as well.

[Halo]

I play 4 card majors and a weak no trump with some people and I'd expect to be in 3NT all the time. I won't be able to show club values and partners will take a chance on the diamonds rather than the 43 heart fit.

[hrothgar]

Playing MOSCITO I'd expect the following auction

 

P - 1N

2N - 3N

 

1N = 14 - 16 in 3rd/4th

2N = asks for a weak doubleton

3M = denies a weak doubleton

 

P - 1N

3N

 

is also a strong possibility

[aelred]

Take

 

1♣[1] - 1♦[2]

1♥[3] - 2♦[4]

3♣[5] - 3♠[6] ...

 

for a start.

 

[1] ♣ UNBAL or 10-13 bal (yes, we currently open that hand ;) )

[2] 4+ ♥

[3] 10-13 bal or ♣ w 3 ♥

[4] GF relay

[5] 10-13 bal, 4+ ♣, 3 ♥

[6] values

 

Here at St. Titus, the Abbot always tells us to use simple, straightforward bidding.

 

Bro Aelred

[1eyedjack]

4H is harder to evaluate. It's certainly a fair spot, and if we had an auction that pinpointed the diamond lead against 3NT I would rather play in 4H. But 4H is not obviously massively better than 3NT. It's roughly on the heart finesse with hearts 4-2, or hearts 3-3, which is about 65% as well.

I figured that 4H normally makes on any 4-2 H break, including losing H finesse. But more I think about it I think you are right. They play 3 rounds of Diamonds and then continue to tap you in Diamonds when in whith the Queen of trumps. On that basis I am content that 3N is at least as good.

[cherdano]

It is not clear to me whether the first two responders thought that 3NT was the most desirable contract or alternatively whether they accept that it is not but regard the superior contract as unbiddable.

For my part, I was just saying that playing a natural strong NT system, I think it is clearcut that the bidding will go 1N-3N.

 

I strongly believe that in a natural system, it is a losing strategy to try to look for 4-3 fits etc. when you have two balanced hands and no apparent problem. For every hand where you find a slightly superior 4-3 fit, there are many hands where you tell opponents how to lead or defend. (It may be different in a relay system where you are only giving away info about one hand.)

 

For a while I played a NT system where I could ask about a weak doubleton after Stayman replies. I don't remember any good result from it except on bidding quest...

[Guest Jlall]

4H is harder to evaluate. It's certainly a fair spot, and if we had an auction that pinpointed the diamond lead against 3NT I would rather play in 4H.  But 4H is not obviously massively better than 3NT.  It's roughly on the heart finesse with hearts 4-2, or hearts 3-3, which is about 65% as well.

I figured that 4H normally makes on any 4-2 H break, including losing H finesse. But more I think about it I think you are right. They play 3 rounds of Diamonds and then continue to tap you in Diamonds when in whith the Queen of trumps. On that basis I am content that 3N is at least as good.

Not really...

 

If diamonds are 5-3 and you lose the trump finesse to the short diamond hand with 4-2 hearts you are ok too. That is quite a few % points as well.

[Finch]

They don't have to lead (or continue) diamonds against 4H. Suppose they lead a diamond and switch to a spade, or lead a spade?

 

I don't know how to play it now... if you play heart to the ace and heart finesse and it holds... if RHO has Qxxx you are off if he has 2 or 3 clubs as he'll ruff the 4th club and you lose 1 spade, 1 trump and 3 diamonds (- the card the discarded on the 4th club) ...

 

if you try and play diamonds yourself they may be able to get a club ruff...

 

This is what I meant about it being difficult to evaluate. So much seem to depend on the lead and the actual layout. At least 3NT is quick to play!