What do you bid?

[Guest Jlall]

Similarly, problems may arise when hearts are 4-1 or 5-0, even when spades are 4-3 and the fourth round is played, allowing a useless ruff-sluff that promotes the long heart.

A ruff sluff when hearts are 4-1 on 4 rounds of spades? Brilliant. Pitch a diamond from hand...pull trumps...knock out club... and you're on a diamond hook for 9 tricks. How do you expect the 4 small trumps to be promoted when declarer and dummy both have 4 hearts? Rofl...excellent defense...your posts are completely worthless.

[neilkaz]

I double. As the double can be shaded with shape to as little as a 10-count, this poor shape double has to have compensating high cards. I don't promise more than 3-card support for the majors if I have compensating values or shape, i.e., a 3451 hand.

We agree completely. I don't like my shape for a double, but have some compensating high card strength. This hand is close to a pass for me, but passing these has too often lead to us making the last incorrect guess as to whether and how to balance.

 

If a H spot were the 10 I could see overcalling 1♥ but as it is, I really don't want to hear a 3 card raise with this suit and I am 4333.

 

To overcall 1NT I want a bit more playing strength.

 

.. neilkaz ..

[kenrexford]

Similarly, problems may arise when hearts are 4-1 or 5-0, even when spades are 4-3 and the fourth round is played, allowing a useless ruff-sluff that promotes the long heart.

A ruff sluff when hearts are 4-1 on 4 rounds of spades? Brilliant. Pitch a diamond from hand...pull trumps...knock out club... and you're on a diamond hook for 9 tricks. How do you expect the 4 small trumps to be promoted when declarer and dummy both have 4 hearts? Rofl...excellent defense...your posts are completely worthless.

Spade-Spade-Spade-Spade, you overruff the stiff heart. Or, you ruffed first, in Dummy, if spades were 4-3 the other way, making the 4-1 dangerous either way.

 

After pulling trumps (in four rounds), you try to knock out the club (playing clubs twice). You now have ♦Jx ♣x in hand opposite ♦AQx on dummy.

 

Do you take the diamond finesse "for nine tricks?" If Declarer started with 4414, without the diamond King, you lose the rest of the tricks when the diamond finesse fails. Unless your posts are completely worthless, I'll assume that this was not the ignorant line you meant.

 

So, perhaps you finesse diamond first? Jack toward Dummy. When this loses, and a diamond comes back, you have ♦A ♣KJ opposite ♣Qxx (pitched club on the fourth heart). That works.

 

However, then you have a problem when the diamond finesse would have worked. You would have seen J-K-A in diamonds. That leaves you with ♦Qx ♣KJ in dummy, ♦x ♣Qxx in hand. This causes a problem, now, on the second round of clubs, because Opener fires back a diamond and your transportation is snipped.

 

So, it appears that the fourth round of spades, when hearts are 4-1, creates an immaterial squeeze on dummy in the minors if you "pull trumps" next as suggested.

 

I hope that is not a "completely worthless" analysis, for you.

[kenrexford]

After my cigarette, I thought about another possibility that should probably be mentioned. If hearts are 4-1, and clubs 5-2, you also have problems on club-club, or small club (retaining the Ace). If you pull all four trumps, then the spades run unimpeded (when the diamond finesse fails after club-club, or when you try to establish a second club after a small club lead). If you do not pull trumps, you face a club ruff.

[Guest Jlall]

Spade-Spade-Spade-Spade, you overruff the stiff heart.

WTF ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT. ARE YOU SERIOUSLY CLAIMING THAT 2H WILL GO DOWN ON 4-1 HEARTS BY THE DEFENSE OF 4 ROUNDS OF SPADES????????

 

I'll say this slowly. You ruff with the ace in dummy and you pitch a diamond from your hand. You pull trumps pitchign a diamond from dummy. You knock out the ace of clubs. YOU TAKE 4 HEARTS, 1 RUFF, 2 CLUBS, 1 DIAMOND. THAT IS 8 TOP TRICKS. EVEN YOU COULD MAKE 2H ON THIS DEFENSE.

 

After pulling trumps (in four rounds), you try to knock out the club (playing clubs twice). You now have ♦Jx ♣x in hand opposite ♦AQx on dummy.

 

WTF ARE YOU SMOKING NO YOU DON'T. YOU HAVE AQ of DIAMONDS AND A CLUB OPPOSITE Jx OF DIAMONDS AND A CLUB.

 

Do you take the diamond finesse "for nine tricks?"

 

LMAO. BY THIS TIME YOU WILL HAVE A COMPLETE COUNT OF THE HIGH CARDS IN SPADES. IF IT IS SAFE TO TAKE THE DIAMOND FINESSE YOU WILL KNOW IT. WHENEVER YOU TAKE THIS FINESSE IT WILL BE 100 %

 

So, it appears that the fourth round of spades, when hearts are 4-1, creates an immaterial squeeze on dummy in the minors if you "pull trumps" next as suggested.

 

WTF DO YOU SMOKE EVERY MORNING SERIOUSLY??????????? IMMATERIAL SQUEEZE? THIS IS A PULL TRUMPS AND CASH WINNERS HAND IF YOU JUST WANT TO MAKE 2H. WTF ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT.

 

I hope that is not a "completely worthless" analysis, for you.

 

FROM YOU KEN, NOTHING LESS.

 

AND MY FAVORITE QUOTE...

 

Similarly, problems may arise when hearts are 4-1 or 5-0, even when spades are 4-3 and the fourth round is played, allowing a useless ruff-sluff that promotes the long heart.

 

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

 

After my cigarette, I thought about another possibility that should probably be mentioned. If hearts are 4-1, and clubs 5-2, you also have problems on club-club, or small club (retaining the Ace). If you pull all four trumps, then the spades run unimpeded (when the diamond finesse fails after club-club, or when you try to establish a second club after a small club lead). If you do not pull trumps, you face a club ruff.

 

YES!!! WELL DONE!!! THUS CONFIRMING WHAT I SAID EARILER:

 

What does it matter if hearts are 4-1? You are still fine if the diamond hook is on.

 

SEE? I SAID IF THE DIAMOND HOOK IS ON. AMAZING! OF COURSE YOU DON'T EVEN NEED THE DIAMOND HOOK TO MAKE 2H IF THEY FIND YOUR BRILLIANT DEFENSE OF 4 ROUNDS OF SPADES.

 

I hope your complicated advanced string theory only accounted for going down in 2H on 4-1 hearts and non 6-1 clubs when... clubs are 5-2 AND the diamond finesse is off (with 16 HCP missing and RHO opening the bidding). And of course them NOT playing 4 rounds of spades, the worst possible defense for them.

 

The fact that you cannot see that 4 rounds of spades is ALWAYS the worst defense on ANY layout is SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO FUNNNNNNNNYYYYYYYYY to me. HOW CAN YOU NOT SEE THIS? HOW CAN YOU CLAIM TO BE A BRIDGE PLAYER?

 

stick to cuebidding. merry christmas.

[kenrexford]

Justin, this is MP. I could care less whether the defense sets 2♥. I am concerned as to whether the defense blocks my ability to make more tricks in hearts than in NT. Surely you understand this principle?

 

In case you do not. Let's assume hearts are 4-1. What if Opener holds, say, 4135 pattern? At 2♠, it looks like he loses one club, one diamond, one heart. He will probably lose another somewhere. Losing two more is difficult, but let's assume this. Now, 2♠ makes (-110), and worse if you plan to double 2♠, but partner will be hard-pressed to try 3♥, which apparently fails anyway when 2NT may make.

 

What about Opener with 4144 pattern? Now diamonds can be established for down one, which beats 2♥ unless you double this -- but who will?

 

What about 4414 pattern? This seems odd, but plausible. Now, on a trump lead, Declarer can win in hand, lead a diamond toward the King. After winning the next spade in dummy, diamond-diamond establishes the suit (ruff high). When a spade goes back and they split 3-3, nine tricks. On a heart lead, there is timing for a cross-ruff.

 

Thus, I seem to need to be able to take more tricks in hearts than NT, because a double seems to limit us to 2♥ or defending 2♠, whereas a 1NT overcall allows us to declare 2NT.

[the hog]

Justin you made my day. Your post is the best I have read in ages. ROFL.

Ken, anyone who thinks a 1NT overcall here is a reasonable bid can't be taken seriously. You deserve to go for 500 at least. Look your pd is PASSED, you have no long suit in your hand - from where are your tricks coming????

[awm]

Well, I agree with Justin that playing four rounds of spades isn't a good defense against 2♥. But I don't think that particularly impacts the merits of 1NT as a bid. Here's my thought process:

 

(1) I'm not particularly afraid of being doubled in 1NT. How many of us play 14-16 NTs opposite a passed partner? Are we really concerned about the penalty double of a (more or less) strong notrump at favorable? I suspect most of us are not. We have more strength than RHO, and we know that a substantial amount of the opponents strength is on our right. I don't think the "risks" of being doubled here are substantially greater than in the auction Pass-Pass-1NT(14-16).

 

(2) The vast majority of the time, this hand will be a fight for a partscore. Assuming we aren't playing some method where we open most (or all) tens and elevens, partner's expected strength is only very slightly less than LHO's. Keeping in mind that there are 26 hcp between our hand and RHO, odds are LHO doesn't have an opening bid any more than partner does.

 

(3) If we're going to fight for a partial, the 1NT bid has substantial advantages. It names the most likely best partial for our side immediately while still allowing partner to remove to a five card major suit if she has one. It right-sides any eventual contract by our side so it will be played by the stronger hand. It preempts the opponents out of a potential 4-4 (or perhaps even 5-4) spade fit. It enables partner to easily double opponents at the two-level if LHO makes the mistake of bidding on a potential misfit (if we double, LHO's bid will be at the one-level on an auction where we have shown fewer values and fewer clubs, making penalizing substantially harder).

 

In fact, I think that playing 1NT overcalls as 14-17 when non-vulnerable is an eminently reasonable agreement that will help substantially with these "tweener" hands where you are too strong to feel comfortable passing, too off-shape to have an easy double, and a point or so light of a 1NT call. Whether the 1NT overcall is a good bid on this 14 given a general agreement of 15-18 is certainly less clear, because of the increased risk of landing in a poor game contract (or 2NT/3♥) but I still believe it has substantial upside. On this hand the 2NT contract which was reached will outscore the 2♥ partial you get from doubling a substantial percentage of the time (I'd say it's around 50-50, since the diamond finesse is somewhat more than 50% through opening bidder, and some of the 5-2 spade breaks are impossible based on the point count and the fact that opener won't have five spades).

 

In any case, I think it would be a shame to let one erroneous argument for a 1NT call by one of the 1NT bidders convince you that 1NT is a bad call -- which really doesn't follow. It's just as easy to make incorrect or unconvincing arguments for something that's actually a good idea, as for something that's a bad one.

[the hog]

Adam you really appear to be missing the point. Thos of us who argue that 1NT is a poor bid would quite likely not even open a 14-16 1NT on ths hand. The distribution is sterile and it appears I have to repeat myself a 3rd time - from where are your tricks coming? The fact that pd is passed makes this even a less attractive bid. Your partner has less than 11; if your partner has 5 or less you are likely to be hit and this is not an unlikely scenario is it?

 

"We have more strength than RHO," Where on earth has this come from and why is it so?

 

"I don't think the "risks" of being doubled here are substantially greater than in the auction Pass-Pass-1NT(14-16). " I think the risks are significantly greater - look at the auction again!

[Elianna]

I'm guessing my 1N overcalls are significantly sounder than yours though given your partners invite.

His partner has seen him play. (Just kidding, btw).

 

In my defense, I've seen him overcall on 14 points frequently.

 

BTW, I voted for pass by the overcaller hand. Yes, I'm very conservative on these hands. I make a good partner for a joker. :)

[Guest Jlall]

I don't think the "risks" of being doubled here are substantially greater than in the auction Pass-Pass-1NT(14-16).

This is where we disagree. My main problem with 1N actually, it's a very dangerous bid when RHO has 12+ and LHO is well placed to double. If we get doubled I would guess we're toast given my hand and LHO will be able to double much more accurately (and most don't even have a penalty X of a 1N opener). Partner will also have less high cards on average on this auction than pass pass 1N.

 

In any case, I think it would be a shame to let one erroneous argument for a 1NT call by one of the 1NT bidders convince you that 1NT is a bad call -- which really doesn't follow. It's just as easy to make incorrect or unconvincing arguments for something that's actually a good idea, as for something that's a bad one.

 

I agree, didn't mean to insinuate that the play analysis error was a reason for not bidding 1N.

[Guest Jlall]

In my defense, I've seen him overcall on 14 points frequently.

Yes, didn't mean to criticize your invite I'm sure it's correct opposite Adam. Good to know your partner's style. Personally if you added the SJ to the hand I still wouldn't overcall 1N so you could bid game opposite me.

[awm]

If you have to know "where your tricks are coming from" every time you open or overcall 1NT, you're opening a lot less 1NTs than I am. I suppose you would not open 1NT on:

 

Axx

Kxxx

Ax

Axxx

 

in first seat, since you can only see 3.5-4 likely tricks..? I admit that my philosophy is to upgrade good hands rather than downgrade bad ones, and that there's virtually no hand with 14 hcp that I would rate as "not good enough to open 14-16 NT" (whereas there are a few really nice 16s that I'd rate as "too good").

 

As far as being doubled, I'd much rather play 1NTX with RHO having 13 and LHO having 9 rather than RHO having 6 and LHO having 16, since it's usually easier to take tricks when their points are in front of the strong hand. The vast majority of the time, a 1♣ opening delivers a 12-14 notrump. In this case I am indeed stronger than RHO, and the remaining points rate to be fairly evenly divided between partner and LHO (since the expected number of points in their hands is seven, the negative inference that partner doesn't have 12+ has little effect). While occasionally RHO might have extras in an unbalanced hand, this often makes it harder for opponents to double me, and also makes it more likely partner has a five-card suit giving us a good place to run. This is MP scoring so the very occasional -500 is worthwhile if I can turn a couple -110s into -50s.

 

I do find it amusing that some of the same people who feel that it's necessary to have a strong NT overcall available at vulnerable in sandwich seat (both opponents bidding) seem to think that overcalling 1NT on a good 14 at favorable (only one opponent bidding so far) is way too risky. I can hardly fathom that two extra points makes that much of a difference.

[the hog]

"I do find it amusing that some of the same people who feel that it's necessary to have a strong NT overcall available at vulnerable in sandwich seat (both opponents bidding seem to think that overcalling 1NT on a good 14 at favorable (only one opponent bidding so far) is way too risky). I can hardly fathom that two extra points makes that much of a difference. "

 

Well, I don't play this either, but I give up on this post. All I can say is that I wish you would play this way against me for money or a serious MP event. (Yes, yes I know this is MP, but I can dream can't I?)

[Guest Jlall]

I do find it amusing that some of the same people who feel that it's necessary to have a strong NT overcall available at vulnerable in sandwich seat (both opponents bidding) seem to think that overcalling 1NT on a good 14 at favorable (only one opponent bidding so far) is way too risky. I can hardly fathom that two extra points makes that much of a difference.

Sorry but I don't really see this as a good 14. And yes a queen does make quite a bit of difference to me. Doesn't an extra queen typically cause a big difference in what you bid (unless its from bottom of the range to top of the range)? Not to mention that the question is not between passing and bidding 1N on this hand, you certainly have X available. After 1x p 1y you usually don't have a double available with 16-19 balanced. You will never be able to show your values and Xing after 2 suits have been bid is typically more indicative of shape (I couldn't imagine Xing with 4333 after 1C p 1S, so my choice would be pass or bid). Basically those situations are not analogous.

 

As far as being doubled, I'd much rather play 1NTX with RHO having 13 and LHO having 9 rather than RHO having 6 and LHO having 16,

 

I agree with this, but it's not like LHO saws you off with 16 and RHO has 6 as frequently on pass pass 1N as being sawed off in 1N after p 1x 1N. When RHO has opened surely you'd agree you're more likely to get doubled.

 

In this case I am indeed stronger than RHO, and the remaining points rate to be fairly evenly divided between partner and LHO (since the expected number of points in their hands is seven, the negative inference that partner doesn't have 12+ has little effect).

 

I agree with this, partner's pass would be less of an inference than RHO's pass. I mean if RHO had 0-11, partner had 0-11, and I had 14 obviously partner would average more points than if RHO had 12+ and partner had 0-11.

 

And even with a random 16 or 17 it would be speculative to X a 1N opener since partner could be the one with those 6-7 points. It's much easier to X when they know their partner has some values.

[cherdano]

(1) I'm not particularly afraid of being doubled in 1NT. How many of us play 14-16 NTs opposite a passed partner? Are we really concerned about the penalty double of a (more or less) strong notrump at favorable? I suspect most of us are not. We have more strength than RHO, and we know that a substantial amount of the opponents strength is on our right. I don't think the "risks" of being doubled here are substantially greater than in the auction Pass-Pass-1NT(14-16).

I am really surprised that you think so. Even if I had a penalty double of a 14-16 NT available, I would need 17+ to use it. After his partner opened in 2nd seat, LHO will be able to double with any reasonable 9 including a good lead, or any 10+. I think LHO having 10+ is a lot more likely than having 17+ after P-P-1N.

Anyway, just from experience, a 1NT overcall getting doubled seems to happen quite frequently, but I can hardly remember a strong NT getting penalized, even though 1NT openings are a lot more frequent than 1NT overcalls.

[Halo]

I bid 1NT, with a complete lack of conviction. But I am not worried about being doubled in 1NT. I'm more worried about partner bidding on, and going minus when I should be plus.

 

1NT doubled costs when the opponents get you two off and had no game, or one off and had no reasonable part score. This is very possible, but not terrifying.

 

The down side is not having a reliable way to play in game when partner has a good pass. This is serious, and close to persuading me that 1H is better. But don't we get the same sort of numbers of good passes where we play in 3H going off?

 

Maybe passing quietly trying your defensive skills for a change is the best answer.

[whereagles]

This is a textbook example of a pass over 1♣, but matchpoints isn't a textbook game, so I'd double or pass depending on my mood.

[Apollo81]

The funny thing about this hand for me is that I'd be least likely to act at favorable vulnerability. The opps are red so I can get +100 possibly which outscores +90/+80 which I may get if I act. Also partner will be most likely to take some action himself if he has anything. I am most likely to pass at these colors.

 

If we are red, I feel that I have to double. 1NT is suicidal and passing will basically shut our side out of the auction for the rest of the hand. I'd prefer defending at all red (for the +100) but I don't think it's likely we will buy the hand if I double unless we are making something.

 

At all white, I feel that I cannot pass. All white is often a race to 1NT. I would be most likely to make the 1NT overcall at these colors for all the reasons Adam said. I would choose some other action if partner is not expecting aggressive 1NT overcalls white over 1m.

 

I would probably double at IMPs no matter what the vulnerability is. Far safer to do this than to guess whether to balance later.

-Noble

[Finch]

As cherdano said, this is a textbook example of a pass. I can't imagine doing anything other than pass, the alternatives are all horrible.

 

I've been known to overcall 1NT on a 14-count, but not on a pile of rubbish like this. My 1NT overcalls are (fractionally) stronger than my strong 1NT openings and this is way short of an upgrade. Compared to the assorted multiplicity of downsides (we have to play 1NTx, partner gets us too high, the opponents make more tricks because they know where all the high cards are) it's hard to see much benefit in the 1NT overcall - it's aiming at an exceptionally small target (mainly being +90 instead of +50 or -50/-100 instead of -90/-120).

 

If you had removed all the pass cards from my bidding box and forced me to made a non-pass call, I suppose I'd double. But I hate it.

 

Now we know partner's hand, it's clear 1C wouldn't get passed out, as partner has an easy 1NT protection as a passed hand.

[mikeh]

As cherdano said, this is a textbook example of a pass. I can't imagine doing anything other than pass, the alternatives are all horrible.

 

I've been known to overcall 1NT on a 14-count, but not on a pile of rubbish like this. My 1NT overcalls are (fractionally) stronger than my strong 1NT openings and this is way short of an upgrade. Compared to the assorted multiplicity of downsides (we have to play 1NTx, partner gets us too high, the opponents make more tricks because they know where all the high cards are) it's hard to see much benefit in the 1NT overcall - it's aiming at an exceptionally small target (mainly being +90 instead of +50 or -50/-100 instead of -90/-120).

 

If you had removed all the pass cards from my bidding box and forced me to made a non-pass call, I suppose I'd double. But I hate it.

 

Now we know partner's hand, it's clear 1C wouldn't get passed out, as partner has an easy 1NT protection as a passed hand.

precisely

[mike777]

As cherdano said, this is a textbook example of a pass. I can't imagine doing anything other than pass, the alternatives are all horrible.

 

I've been known to overcall 1NT on a 14-count, but not on a pile of rubbish like this. My 1NT overcalls are (fractionally) stronger than my strong 1NT openings and this is way short of an upgrade.  Compared to the assorted multiplicity of downsides (we have to play 1NTx, partner gets us too high, the opponents make more tricks because they know where all the high cards are) it's hard to see much benefit in the 1NT overcall - it's aiming at an exceptionally small target (mainly being +90 instead of +50 or -50/-100 instead of -90/-120).

 

If you had removed all the pass cards from my bidding box and forced me to made a non-pass call, I suppose I'd double. But I hate it.

 

Now we know partner's hand, it's clear 1C wouldn't get passed out, as partner has an easy 1NT protection as a passed hand.

precisely

I would be shocked if in a BW poll everyone or almost everyone passed this hand saying this is a textbook pass.

 

I would expect votes for at least: pass, 1nt on 14 nv, x or 1H

[HeartA]

I would pass. On occasions that I need aggressive, I would overcall 1NT.

[mike777]

edit.

[Rebound]

I think it's a great pass. Many more times have I gotten a good result from keeping my mouth shut than jumping in when, not only am I unsure what to call, i.e. 1h/1nt/dbl, but also unsure where the opps are headed in the auction.

 

LHO is undefined. You may yet get to defend a heart or club partial when they're vully and +200 is a good thing.