BAM play problem

[Guest Jlall]

RHO is Jeff Meckstroth and you're playing BAM. Oh, and your partner is Hamman. No pressure though.

 

You reach 4S with these cards:

 

AKJx

Kx

Kx

ATxxx

 

xxxx

Ax

Jxx

KQJx

 

North bid 1C, South bid 1S, North raised to 4S.

 

The lead is a heart. btw, soloway or rodwell will be declaring this at the other table. What's your line?

[sathyab]

If spades are 3-2 you will eventually have to play a diamond to the King yourself. If trumps are 4-1 either way, you will need an entry back to your hand outside of clubs to play a Diamond toward dummy. So I'll take the first heart in dummy with the K, AofS, a club to my hand and spade finesse.

[inquiry]

I see only three lines....

 

Line one, cash ♠AK--- if queen falls, then play spade jack, else second heart, a few rounds of clubs to strip them of their clubs, and then throw them in with spade Queen. If you lose no spade, just lead up to the diamond king. The endplay does not mean you will guess right (unless RHO has the spade queen)

 

Line two, cash one spade, play second heart to hand, hook spade. If that wins, pull trump, and eventually lead up the king of diamonds.

 

Line three, partial elimination. Play like line two, except cash precisely one club before taking the second round spade hook. If RHO has unlikely 1♣, 2♠ he is endplayed.

 

Line 3 has too little chance and runs risk of club ruff(s) so I throw that out. Line one and line two are fairly close, but I think I prefer line one over line two because even if the spade Queen is onside you might regain the trick on the endplay that will not be there if you won the hook, and if Queen third is offside, the endply will gain a trick when diamond ACE if with RHO. So I go that way.

[keylime]

I'm catering Jeff to have 4 spades to the QT9x.

 

High trump, heart into closed hand, lead up. If LHO follows duck it around. I don't think Jeff would hold hopefully 4-3-2-4 with the AD.

 

If LHO shows out, then I might cater to 4-4-3-2 or 4-4-4-1 in Jeff's hand. Win any return (probably a club), play a high trump, and work on clubs until Jeff pounds in. That might get the game made then.

[cnszsun]

I'm catering Jeff to have 4 spades to the QT9x.

 

High trump, heart into closed hand, lead up. If LHO follows duck it around. I don't think Jeff would hold hopefully 4-3-2-4 with the AD.

 

If LHO shows out, then I might cater to 4-4-3-2 or 4-4-4-1 in Jeff's hand. Win any return (probably a club), play a high trump, and work on clubs until Jeff pounds in. That might get the game made then.

I don't think this will work if East don't ruff any ♣s, at the end you are stuck in dummy and down even if ♦A onside.

[kenrexford]

I'm winning the heart somewhere. I'll try the Ace-King of spades. Why?

 

This is BAM. I hate 4S at BAM with near-slam values. I'm expecting 3NT at the other table. My spade suit was awful. My opponents had the benefit of a strong club opening and some room, or heart (or heart-diamond) interference that also pushes us toward 3NT. Against this, I'll play spades anti-percentage.

[Halo]

I'm with the cash AK of spades camp. I invest in giving them a theoretical edge when they play in spades, and get a net profit taking account of a NT contract. If my reasoning is sound then they may do the same thing and we tie the hand even when they are in spades.

 

Added value is that when I lose, I lose with panache.

[ArcLight]

This is BAM, not IMPs so go with the percentages. Dont cater to 4-1 splits.

Opps at the other table can bid and will be in game as well.

If they are in slam making, they beat you. So don't assume teh Spade finesse will work.

 

Win heart in hand.

Lay down AK trumps

Run Clubs, you have the entry to Dummy in hearts.

 

They get 2 tricks, the trump Q (maybe) and the Dime Ace.

 

 

 

[i play AK of spades because I think its the best play for the hand, not necessarily the best play of the spade suit in isolation. "8 Ever, 9 Never"]

[inquiry]

Well, I think we should discuss the variablility between the two reasonable lines of play (and any others I have overlooked).

 

Missing Qxxxx the "odds" favor the finessee and at BAM you generally go with the odds... we can forget 4-1's (well we will try to drop the stiff QUEEN first) as we will have to lose at least one spade then. The spade hook is about 7% (overall) greater chance of picking up the spade suit.

 

But we shouldn't consider the trump suit in isolation. Because once we realize that an endplay is in the mix if RHO is forced to win the third round of spades with Queen (when he holds Qxx), the odds change, I think, to favor cashing the spade ACE-KING. The finessee wins a trick when Qxx is onside, playing AK will actually win a trick HALF the time when Qxx if offside (when diamond ACE is with the SPADE Queen). The odds are very close as you might guess going playing for Qxx on side or Qxx offside (if not Qx off side). My estimate is it is about 1%, but you also gain if you can get a good guestimate who might hold the diamond ACE even when the spade hook would have worked, because you could throw WEST in for a forced red suit return.

[Guest Jlall]

Wait a second, 3N? Even if the Qxx of spades is onside, you are going to be winning the board if the diamond hook is onside as there is no way they can take it in 3N. 4S is a much better contract, I'm not sure why we'd assume they're in 3N.

 

If you play the AK of spades to be "anti percentage" please specify. If you take it because you think it's the best line, also specify. THanks.

[inquiry]

I am not worried about 3NT or 6♠, nothing I can do about either of those, one way or the other. I want to 1-make this contract, with 2-best chance for overtrick(s).

 

I choose Ace of spades, then king of spades because I think it is "percentage play" for the hand (but not the percentage play for the suit).

[whereagles]

Hmm.. yeah, AK of spades wins on all 3-2 breaks and has the chance to end play RHO. Seems like a good line to me, though one would have to go through some calculations to check it against the percentage play in spades.

[kenrexford]

Wait a second, 3N? Even if the Qxx of spades is onside, you are going to be winning the board if the diamond hook is onside as there is no way they can take it in 3N. 4S is a much better contract, I'm not sure why we'd assume they're in 3N.

 

If you play the AK of spades to be "anti percentage" please specify. If you take it because you think it's the best line, also specify. THanks.

This is BAM, not IMP's. So, the concept that they cannot take the diamond finesse seems flawed. Sure, they can. If it works, it works at 4♠. They also must cater to the alternative contract of 4♠. Sure, 25% of the time, the diamond finesse fails twice and 3NT is in trouble, but that is a necessary risk to take. 3NT is safe even on that 25% of hands when diamond are 4-4 or block.

 

Further, how is 4♠ a better contract??? We have a combined 29 HCP's. Matchpoints 101 often suggests 3NT as better than four of a major when we are hovering near but not enough for slam. Especially if pattern is resolved as it would be on this hand -- no ruffing values expected.

 

Let's assume that the difference between the finesse and the drop is 7%, as suggested. If we go "anti-percentage," by the drop, and assume the opponents go with percentages, then we win about 46.5% and lose 53.5%. If we go standard, we tie.

 

However, what if the contract is 3NT? If we go percentages, we lose close to 100% of the relevant time. If we go anti-percentage, our odds change back to 46.5%. Thus, the 46.5% line is superior when they bid 3NT.

 

So, by rough quack math, it seems like the anti-percentage line is superior if the opponents will be in 3NT enough times where the 46.5% increase in that contract scenario amounts to a rough 3.6% increase in our total expectations.

 

I have no earthly idea what the real math is. In fact, I think I'm way off and missing a ton. I could probably figure it out, but I'd have a few seconds at the table and will stick with that time frame here. However, my gut tells me that I win if 3NT is the contract about 1:10. That seems low.

 

Sure, you can spy-versus-spy this thing, and suggest that they might have similar thoughts. However, I'm not Jeff, nor Eric, nor any of these guys. They know this. So, they will probably go normal.

[Codo]

Of course 4 Spade is better then 3 NT.

I would win the Heart and cash two high spades.

The line is superior if:

If the Queen was doubelton behind.

If the queen was 3. behind, I will eliminate Hearts and continue Clubs till rho ruffs and has to open the diamonds or give me a ruff and discard. (If he never ruffs, I play a spade myself.)

 

The lines are equal if the queen is doubelton with lho or singelton and at some layouts, where the queen is fourth somewhere.

 

It is inferior if the hook was on.

 

So the chances for playing the spades from the top look much better then the chances for the hook.

[inquiry]

It is inferior if the hook was on.

This is not necessarily true. You can sitll eliminate hearts, run clubs, and if LHO doesn't ruff in, throw him in with the spade. Should he have the diamond Queen and his partner the diamond ACE, you will get the spade trick back in the form of a diamond or ruff and sluff. Of course, you can play WEST for Diamond Ace or Diamond Queen, so you are in a guess position. If you guess the field hooks, you know which way to guess when LHO exits a diamond.

[Echognome]

Ironically at imps, I want to be in 3NT. It has the virtue of being cold on ANY lie of the cards. But at BAM, put me down for 4♠.

[bid_em_up]

RHO is Jeff Meckstroth and you're playing BAM. Oh, and your partner is Hamman. No pressure though.

 

You reach 4S with these cards:

 

AKJx

Kx

Kx

ATxxx

 

xxxx

Ax

Jxx

KQJx

 

North bid 1C, South bid 1S, North raised to 4S.

 

The lead is a heart. btw, soloway or rodwell will be declaring this at the other table. What's your line?

Lets assume for a moment that 3N would be played by North, and he is likely to receive a diamond lead.

 

Now he has 10 easy tricks, does he not? 5♣ 2♥ 1♦ 2♠, for plus x30.

 

If the diamond A is onside, he can always score plus x30 anyway regardless of which hand declares 3N and the declarer at the other table already has an idea as to whether or not the Ace was onside or off.

 

The question is, will he take the spade finesse trying for plus x60? Knowing that he has gained an extra trick on the lead (the Ace is offside), I see no reason for him to take the finesse and risk the overtrick he has already gained. If the spade is Qx offside, it will drop for him and he will be +x90, which we are never beating.

 

Since this is BAM, it looks like the only way to beat the score at the other table is to take the spade finesse and later playing for the diamond Ace onside to make 6 (when the Ace is offside, I will still outscore 3N+1 by making 5, as long as declarer rejects the spade finesse at the other table).

 

But what do I know?

[inquiry]

RHO is Jeff Meckstroth and you're playing BAM. Oh, and your partner is Hamman. No pressure though.

 

You reach 4S with these cards:

 

AKJx

Kx

Kx

ATxxx

 

xxxx

Ax

Jxx

KQJx

 

North bid 1C, South bid 1S, North raised to 4S.

 

The lead is a heart. btw, soloway or rodwell will be declaring this at the other table. What's your line?

Lets assume for a moment that 3N would be played by North, and he is likely to receive a diamond lead.

 

Now he has 10 easy tricks, does he not? 5♣ 2♥ 1♦ 2♠, for plus x30.

 

If the diamond A is onside, he can always score plus x30 anyway regardless of which hand declares 3N and the declarer at the other table already has an idea as to whether or not the Ace was onside or off.

 

The question is, will he take the spade finesse trying for plus x60? Knowing that he has gained an extra trick on the lead (the Ace is offside), I see no reason for him to take the finesse and risk the overtrick he has already gained. If the spade is Qx offside, it will drop for him and he will be +x90, which we are never beating.

 

Since this is BAM, it looks like the only way to beat the score at the other table is to take the spade finesse and later playing for the diamond Ace onside to make 6 (when the Ace is offside, I will still outscore 3N+1 by making 5, as long as declarer rejects the spade finesse at the other table).

 

But what do I know?

On a somewhat more likely heart lead, 3NT players will take the spade hook, assuring 10 tricks (normal spade split) and mabye 11 (5C, 2H, 4S). They will never get a chance to play for an 11th if the spade hook is off, because hearts will be cleared and they will win 10 tricks. So 10/11 tricks seem about right. After the spade hook wins, they might decide to play for 12 (it is BAM after all), by leading up to the king of diamonds. Why? Becasue in 4S, you will get to do that.

 

Thus, I repeat an earlier reframe, I really can't do anything about 3NT (although there is a good chance in NT the spade hook will be taken). I add to that, I think it is pretty good chance they are playing in 4♠ in the other room anyway.

[Guest Jlall]

Further, how is 4♠ a better contract???  We have a combined 29 HCP's.  Matchpoints 101 often suggests 3NT as better than four of a major when we are hovering near but not enough for slam.

You may analyze hands like this, but I prefer to look at the actual hands. That is part of "hand analysis 101." The fact that you would suggest 3N must be better because we have 29 HCP and a 4-4 fit is really funny. Is that really how you think about which contract is better?

 

Let's assume that the difference between the finesse and the drop is 7%, as suggested. If we go "anti-percentage," by the drop, and assume the opponents go with percentages, then we win about 46.5% and lose 53.5%. If we go standard, we tie.

 

lol. And what is the percentage play? Hands are not simply suit combinations in isolation. If you bang down the AK of spades and the queen DOESN'T drop but all follow then

 

If RHO has Qxx and the DA you make 11 tricks- 10.2 % of the time

If RHO has Qxx and no DA you make 11 tricks- 10.2 % of the time

If LHO has Qxx and the DQ you make 11 tricks- 10.2 % of the time

If LHO has Qxx and the DA you make 10 tricks- 10.2 % of the time

 

If the queen drops doubleton on your right then

 

If RHO has Qx and the DA you make 11 tricks- 6.8 % of the time

If RHO has Qx and no DA you make 12 tricks- 6.8 % of the time

 

If lho has the queen and it drops doubleton then

 

If LHO has Qx and the DA you make 12 tricks- 6.8 % of the time

If LHO has Qx and no DA you make 11 tricks- 6.8 % of the time.

 

If spades go 4-1 offside and the queen does not drop things get interesting. Now you're going to run clubs. RHO will do best to not ruff in ever, coming down to 2 spades and 2 diamonds for the endgame. Now if we could always guess who had the DA we could always make, but we can't. Percentage play is to lead a diamond up, and if RHO has AQ of diamonds he gets endplayed, or if LHO has the DA we make. so...

 

If RHO has Qxxx and no DA we make 10 tricks- 5.6 %

If RHO has Qxxx and the AQ of diamonds we make 10 tricks- 2.8 %

If RHO has Qxxx and the DA but no DQ we go down 1- 2.8 %

 

If spades are 4-1 onside without the queen dropping then you have to cross to your hand with a club and lead a spade towards the jack. LHO does best to win this and exit with a heart. Assuming LHO will defend perfectly he will do this. Now if you lead a diamond up and RHO has the ace and not the queen, dummy can get tapped for down 1. If LHO has the ace you're going to make 5. And if RHO has the AQ of diamonds you can't get tapped but will just make 4 (assuming LHO would lead a stiff club). so...

 

If LHO has Qxxx and the DA we make 11 tricks- 5.6 %

If LHO has Qxxx and no diamond honor we make 10 tricks -2.8 %

if LHO has the Qxxx of spades and just the DQ we go -1- 2.8 %

 

If spades are 4-1 with a stiff queen somewhere then we just take a diamond finesse.

 

If LHO has the DA we make 11 tricks- 2.8 %

If RHO has the DA we make 10 tricks- 2.8 %

 

I will eliminate 5-0 spades form the equation given that no one bid non vul at board a match.

 

So on this line we make 12 tricks 13.6 % of the time

We make 11 tricks 56% of the time

We make 10 tricks 20.4 % of the time

We go down 1 5.6 % of the time

 

(the 4 % unaccounted for is 4-0)

 

If we cash the spade ace and hook the spade and LHO has Qxx of spades then..

 

If lho has the DA we make 12 tricks- 10.2 % of the time

If lho has no DA we make 11 tricks- 10.2 % of the time

 

If LHO has Qx of spades then

 

If LHO has the DA we make 12 tricks- 6.8 % of the time

If LHO has no DA we make 11 tricks- 6.8 % of the time.

 

If RHO has Qxx of spades then

 

If LHO has the DA we make 11 tricks- 10.2 % of the time

If LHO has no DA we make 10 tricks- 10.2 % of the time

 

If RHO has Qx of spades then

 

If LHO has the DA we make 11 tricks- 6.8 % of the time

If LHO has no DA we make 10 tricks- 6.8 % of the time

 

If spades are 4-1 then the numbers are the same as the first line which are...

 

If RHO has Qxxx and no DA we make 10 tricks- 5.6 %

If RHO has Qxxx and the AQ of diamonds we make 10 tricks- 2.8 %

If RHO has Qxxx and the DA but no DQ we go down 1- 2.8 %

 

If LHO has Qxxx and the DA we make 11 tricks- 5.6 %

If LHO has Qxxx and no diamond honor we make 10 tricks -2.8 %

if LHO has the Qxxx of spades and just the DQ we go -1- 2.8 %

 

If it's stiff Q of spades then

 

If LHO has the DA we make 11 tricks- 2.8 %

If RHO has the DA we make 10 tricks- 2.8 %

 

So we make 12 tricks 17 % of the time

We make 11 tricks 42.4 % of the time

We make 10 tricks 31 % of the time

We go down 1 5.6 % of the time

 

(again 4 % missing because of 5-0 splits where the lines are equal anyways, and not possible on the auction).

 

It's clear from this that by playing the AK of spades you have a HIGHER EXPECTED TRICK TAKING VALUE than by taking the finesse by roughly .3 tricks. Though you decrease the amount of times you take 12 tricks, you wind up turning 11 tricks into 10 tricks far more often than 11 tricks into 12 by playing the AK of spades. THAT IS THE PERCENTAGE LINE. Your claim that you were going anti percentage was silly because you didn't take into account the whole hand. Obviously a higher trick EV line can have less chance to win the board (like if one line took 0 tricks 10 % of the time and 12 tricks 90 % of the time where the other line took 11 tricks 100 % of the time), but it's clear from the relevant cases that if 2 declarers were in 4S and one took one line and one took the other line the guy who played the AK of spades would win the board more often. I would have done an analysis of when one line wins the board against another and the percentage of that, but in this case it's pretty clear that I did the same thing in a side-by-side comparison and makes it easier to compare the lines vs 3N.

 

If you really want me to, I can do the same type of analysis for 3N just to prove that you are wrong about it being a better BAM contract. That is even more complicated and time consuming because of lead and line possibilities. But let's just put it this way:

 

If they lead hearts and your spade finesse LOSES you can NEVER take a diamond finesse.

 

If they lead hearts and your spade finesse wins you still suffer a disaster if RHO has the DA and LHO has the DQ.

 

By playing spades you don't risk having a red suit run on you and you get endplay chances as well as timing to take a finesse without the risk of them running a red suit on you. 4S is a better contract despite what "matchpoints 101 says."

 

If they lead diamonds and you take a spade finesse and it loses, they are going to run diamonds.

 

Your point about 4-4 diamonds is nice, but it doesn't matter, any time you take 9 tricks in any strain you have a disaster.

 

Bridge is a little more complicated than matchpoints 101 and "the right play in spades is to finesse."

[Guest Jlall]

However, what if the contract is 3NT?  If we go percentages, we lose close to 100% of the relevant time.

I wonder where you come up with this stuff sometimes. Hopefully you can at least now see that THIS is false.

[mikeh]

Justin, I like your analysis, but I am not 100% convinced because of what follows:

 

Firstly, I do not believe that the probabilties are exactly balanced when it comes to the location of the ♦A: this is critical because the main power of the AK trump line flows from RHO holding the Qx trump and the ♦A (I know, it is not the only lie where the play works).

 

There is a tenuous but non-trivial inference that the ♦A is on your left. LHO led a non-honour ♥ (if I read the problem correctly). There was nothing in the auction to suggest a ♥ rather than a ♦ and so, if his reds were equal, he might well lead a ♦. The fact that he led a ♥ gives rise to a slight inference that he has a holding in ♦ that was unattractive: and the A (or the irrelevant AQ) is such a holding.

 

How to quantify that, and how that flows through your equations is too much for me to try to assess right now. I was trying to figure this impact when thinking about the choice of trump Ak or one high trump then hook, and it was coming very close to break even... too close for me to intuit which line was superior.

 

Secondly, (and I may have missed something here), you assume that when LHO holds Qxx, you will strip the round suits and exit a trump, and ALWAYS go right when LHO leads a low ♦. Indeed, you have (I think) postulated that you will play low and thus win when LHO holds the ♦Q. Surely LHO is not only slightly favoured to hold the ♦A (in which case your line loses for sure: you had an easy 12 tricks by hooking) but when you guess wrong, you are a full trick behind the trump finesse line?

 

I think the combination of these two factors makes the trump finesse line very slightly superior, but I am balancing this analysis with reading some particularly technical caselaw, so I may well have missed something :P

[inquiry]

Mike,

 

Another way to look at this is you can play either opponent for Qxx. We have to agree that the odds of that is the same. (If WEST has Qxx hook him, if EAST has Qxx run the elimination).

 

So hooking the spade wins if WEST has Qxx, playing AK wins roughly half the time when EAST has Qxx (not counting what every vacant space (3S versus 2S) and hint from opening lead.

 

So, playing AK wins when Qx is offside (13.65%) and gains a trick roughly 1/2 the time when Qxx is offside (20.35/2=10.17) or 23.82. Playing the hook wins when WEST is Qxx (20.35%).

 

So at this simplistic view, AK gains a trick works 23.82 (when it matters) versus the hook which gains 20.35 (when it matters). I am not sure what vacant space says, but I estimate that if RHO has 3S to West 2 Spades, the chance EAST holds the ACE is decreased by about 9 to 10% so the 23.82 drops by 2% to 21.82% (not correcting for rounding). The psychological restricted choice decision to the opening lead has not been factored in, but I already weight the ace being with the opening leader when the Qxx is offside. This is why I guess the odds were close, but AK is about 1% better than the hook.

 

Note this does not factor in the recovery of the lost trick when Qxx is onside. As you point out then you have to guess which diamond honor WEST has, and in this case with either Q of A, it will be a guess, but the correct quess is to play WEST for the queen I guess, so you can gain the trick you lost when you played AK....

 

All in all, Justins analysis looks right to me, and suggest my 1% is probably an underestimate. I think becausue of the recapture of extra trick on the throw in when the heart hook would have worked (although when you can guess right, you will do so only half the time).

[Guest Jlall]

Justin, I like your analysis, but I am not 100% convinced because of what follows:

 

Firstly, I do not believe that the probabilties are exactly balanced when it comes to the location of the ♦A: this is critical because the main power of the AK trump line flows from RHO holding the Qx trump and the ♦A (I know, it is not the only lie where the play works).

 

There is a tenuous but non-trivial inference that the ♦A is on your left. LHO led a non-honour ♥ (if I read the problem correctly). There was nothing in the auction to suggest a ♥ rather than a ♦ and so, if his reds were equal, he might well lead a ♦. The fact that he led a ♥ gives rise to a slight inference that he has a holding in ♦ that was unattractive: and the A (or the irrelevant AQ) is such a holding.

 

How to quantify that, and how that flows through your equations is too much for me to try to assess right now. I was trying to figure this impact when thinking about the choice of trump Ak or one high trump then hook, and it was coming very close to break even... too close for me to intuit which line was superior.

 

Secondly, (and I may have missed something here), you assume that when LHO holds Qxx, you will strip the round suits and exit a trump, and ALWAYS go right when LHO leads a low ♦. Indeed, you have (I think) postulated that you will play low and thus win when LHO holds the ♦Q. Surely LHO is not only slightly favoured to hold the ♦A (in which case your line loses for sure: you had an easy 12 tricks by hooking) but when you guess wrong, you are a full trick behind the trump finesse line?

 

I think the combination of these two factors makes the trump finesse line very slightly superior, but I am balancing this analysis with reading some particularly technical caselaw, so I may well have missed something :)

Yes there are all sorts of possible inferences I left out. For instance if RHO has both short clubs and short spades you should probably play him to not have the DA since he didnt bid over 1C.

 

You are also correct that I implied I would play LHO for the DQ if he had Qxx of spades, this way I get back to even against the trump finesse line. If its Qxx of spades on and the DA on, I make only 4 this way, but if I guess the diamonds after AK of spades I still only make 5 when they might well have made 6 by taking 2 finesses at the other table. I think this outweighs the inference that LHO is more likely to have the DA from the lead, but who knows.

 

LHO may also signal his diamond holding at some point. He was a sponsor, so it is certainly likely that I will be guessing diamonds more than 50 % of the time when he leads a diamond back, but for the sake of discussion I assumed I would play LHO for the queen all of the time for the reason I stated.

 

It's all very complicated, and how you weigh those inferences certainly might affect your play.

[whereagles]

Well, a good player will reject the percentage play if the vibes at table tell him it won't work. Not that Meckstroth is the sort of person who'd give the show away :)

[Halo]

I liked AK here. Slightly surprised it proves a BAM winner on spade contracts at both tables - did we actually prove that?

 

We are not claiming we calculated this at the table are we?