High level decision

[Rebound]

Vulnerable against not, at IMPS, (4♠)-P-P- to you and you hold:

[hv=s=sxxhak10xd9xxcaqxx]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

I'm just curious to see if there's a consensus.

[whereagles]

Pass. Insufficient values/shape to bid at the FIVE level.

[pclayton]

I'm a chronic overbidder and this is an easy pass for me.

[P_Marlowe]

Pass?

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[Blofeld]

Move a spade into a diamond and you might see some discussion.

[Guest Jlall]

I would usually X, depending on RHOs tempo/demeanor

[hrothgar]

Mark me down for double...

[Codo]

X

 

I tried to type just "X" but this was not sufficent as a comment. But I would still double and of course this is no take out.

[Apollo81]

I don't think this hand is good enough. Pass for me.

[hatchett]

Pass. Clearcut for me.

[mikeh]

Double.

 

Partner will be passing most of the time, and my expectation is between +300 and -590. When partner bids, my expectation is between -500 and +650.

 

My expectation from passing is between -420 and +100.

 

I'd estimate that passing will generate an average outcome of about -90 while doubling will get us on average about +100. Obviously these estimates contain wide error margins :P . I estimated, for example, that after a pass we will be -420 1/3rd of the time, +50 1/3rd and +100 1/3rd, while I estimated that if he bid, we'd be +600 half the time and -500 1/4 of the time: maybe the 50% making assumption is a bit much, but he will usually pass without unusual shape.

 

In fact, after doing these estimations, my instinct tells me that I am being overly optimistic re the double, but that same instinct tells me that double is still the long-run better call. Instinct is, in this kind of situation, nothing more than unconscious memory of other hands.

[Blofeld]

Mike, I'm interested in what makes you exclude doubled (or redoubled) overtricks from the estimation?

 

Do you think we're taking 3 tricks enough of the time to ignore it?

 

---

 

To those who double, would you also double in the direct seat? If not, what's changed? The only differences that I can see are that partner has passed (which decreases the chance that acting is right) and that RHO has passed (which is hardly a surprise when we hold AK AQ. The normal logic for making balancing actions lighter is that opener's partner passed, limiting the points held by their side and so suggesting that our side has something[1]. This doesn't seem to apply here as they're already in game.

 

[1] Isn't it? Maybe there's some more logic which I've always missed or just isn't coming to mind right now.

[HeartA]

another doubler here.

[neilkaz]

In the old days in direct seat a double was penalty and 4NT was take out. Nowadays a double is more likely to show cards. Is this any different in pass out seat ? I wouldn't think so, but in spite of all this, I pass here.

 

2 small ♠'s is really bad here since we can easily lose two tricks in the suit at any 5 level contract if PD pulls the double.

 

My guess is that we are favorites to set this, but the IMP odds are really poor between a 1 trick set and a make. If we set it two tricks I'll be sorry that I passed, but if we X and PD is totally broke and RHO redoubles looking at a trump honor and almost all of the missing high cards, we hate life and may even give up an overtrick if 2♥ don't cash. Off course this is a worse case scenarion and we won't be redoubled very often, but sometimes opener is stiff or void in ♥.

 

Opener can also have a variety of hands, from my experience other than a text book 4♠ preempt.

 

Pass for me and rather clear since I don't see the IMP odds here, and if PD pulls, we may be off 2 or 3 X'd.

[the hog]

Double. If you pass hands like this you will be pushed around too much by opponents who know you have changed your name to Caspar Milquetoast.

[neilkaz]

Double. If you pass hands like this you will be pushed around too much by opponents who know you have changed your name to Caspar Milquetoast.

Sometimes you are fixed..and good opps fix you when White vs Red all too often.

 

But ... your comment is really valid.

 

I compete very aggressively vs weak 2 and 3 bids, and so aggressively that PD's leave me after a couple of disasters (and occasionally after a lucky game make) but I still pass here.

 

So, I ask you, is your double nearly 100% penalty, and if not, with what hands should a passed PD pull ? (and I mean something less obvious and than a near bust with a 6 or 7 card suit :( )

 

Thx for the advice .. neilkaz ..

[mikeh]

Mike, I'm interested in what makes you exclude doubled (or redoubled) overtricks from the estimation?

 

Do you think we're taking 3 tricks enough of the time to ignore it?

 

---

 

To those who double, would you also double in the direct seat? If not, what's changed? The only differences that I can see are that partner has passed (which decreases the chance that acting is right) and that RHO has passed (which is hardly a surprise when we hold AK AQ. The normal logic for making balancing actions lighter is that opener's partner passed, limiting the points held by their side and so suggesting that our side has something[1]. This doesn't seem to apply here as they're already in game.

 

[1] Isn't it? Maybe there's some more logic which I've always missed or just isn't coming to mind right now.

Well, I cannot (at the table, anyway) take all of the possible outcomes into account. I could, for example, construct a hand on which the favourable vulnerability opp has really stretched, and is running into a chunky 4 card holding behind him, on a hand on which partner had to pass because double is not penalty. So maybe we are going +800 or more. Very, very unlikely, of course. The risk of a redouble or the risk of an overtrick are more plausible, but I do have 2 Aces which rates to lessen the attraction of the redouble by RHO... particularly given that his partner preempted at favourable. Have you seen some of the hands on which forum posters (let alone what one sees at the table) open at this heat?

 

I did say that my gut instinct led me to be a little more pessimistic than the simplistic estimation warranted, and that sort of adjustment is based on the unspecified but very real other possible outcomes (-800, -880 etc). This is a close one, and I confess that at the table I might well pass, since I am a basically conservative player, but I do think that double is, in the long run, the winning call.

 

As this post suggests, I would not be the least surprised to hear that pass was the winning call at the time... but one-shot examples are hardly the proper foundation for bidding theory....equally, the result means little if double was right.

[the hog]

Double. If you pass hands like this you will be pushed around too much by opponents who know you have changed your name to Caspar Milquetoast.

Sometimes you are fixed..and good opps fix you when White vs Red all too often.

 

But ... your comment is really valid.

 

I compete very aggressively vs weak 2 and 3 bids, and so aggressively that PD's leave me after a couple of disasters (and occasionally after a lucky game make) but I still pass here.

 

So, I ask you, is your double nearly 100% penalty, and if not, with what hands should a passed PD pull ? (and I mean something less obvious and than a near bust with a 6 or 7 card suit :) )

 

Thx for the advice .. neilkaz ..

As you have an AK A combination, I would not worry too much about XX overtricks.

Regarding the sort of hand on which pd should pull - perhaps best to say on what he should not pull - most balanced hands up to about 13-14 points should be left in. I would pull with a decent 2 suiter as well as the hand types you described.

 

I think the pushing about comment is valid. There are some opps you KNOW you can overbid against and get away with anything. You quickly learn who they are.

[Rebound]

Thank you all for your comments. As I suspected, the case was made for both pass and double.

 

For the record, at the table I doubled, all passed, making.

 

My own opinion is that if it's a close call between pass and double (and I think on this hand it was), I'd prefer to take the agressive call. I fully agree with The Hog, however, it's also true that the success or failure of a choice like that on one hand doesn't mean much.

[Blofeld]

Thanks for the explanation, Mike. And I like the point about the opponents being overly aggressive at these colours.

 

---

 

Rebound, if you're taking the aggressive call whenever it's a close call, doesn't that just mean that you move the boundary of what counts as close slightly?

 

---

 

To all those doubling, would you double in the direct seat?

[whereagles]

Dbl in direct seat? Probably not, though I'd definitely double both in the direct and 4th seat with the same high cards on a 1444.

[Blofeld]

Yes, I'd double with a 4441.

 

I produced 20 hands where we hold this and West has 7+ spades, 10- points:

 

------------------------------

S: 4

H: J95

D: AKJ6

C: K9874

S: AQJ8765 S: KT9

H: 6 H: Q8743

D: Q7 D: T854

C: J65 C: T

S: 32

H: AKT2

D: 932

C: AQ32

 

Partner might double, but it's borderline. If partner passes initially then doubling turns +50 into +600 -- if partner doesn't bid slam. I think if we posted this as a problem then a significant proportion of people would either double initially or bid slam with the north cards. Though possibly not the same people as those doubling with South.

--------------------------

S: A

H: QJ8743

D: KJ7

C: KT6

S: QJT9864 S: K75

H: 65 H: 9

D: AQ5 D: T864

C: 8 C: J9754

S: 32

H: AKT2

D: 932

C: AQ32

Partner would have acted (double/5H according to preference), so this one is out.

--------------------------

S: K

H: 8753

D: KJ7

C: KJT64

S: AQT9876 S: J54

H: 9 H: QJ64

D: AT D: Q8654

C: 975 C: 8

S: 32

H: AKT2

D: 932

C: AQ32

If partner passes 4Sx then we turn +50/-420 (according to whether they guess trumps right ... probably they won't) into +100/-590. If partner bids we land in 5C or 5H, both going down. I'd tend to bid with the north hand - I expect to make a vulnerable game opposite a normal takeout double, and if we're going down then 4S may well be making.

--------------------------

S: AQ

H: QJ985

D: T74

C: K54

S: KT98764 S: J5

H: 74 H: 63

D: KJ D: AQ865

C: 98 C: JT76

S: 32

H: AKT2

D: 932

C: AQ32

turns +150 into +500 if partner passes, but again it's not clear that they will when we probably have a game and possibly a slam; 5H is -100.

--------------------------

S: KJ

H: 753

D: QJ8

C: KT987

S: T987654 S: AQ

H: QJ4 H: 986

D: K7 D: AT654

C: 4 C: J65

S: 32

H: AKT2

D: 932

C: AQ32

This is at the stupidly aggressive end of 4S, but doubling leads to -590. (and 5C is 4 off on the right defence!)

--------------------------

S: K

H: J963

D: AK4

C: KJT85

S: AQ98754 S: JT6

H: 87 H: Q54

D: J87 D: QT65

C: 9 C: 764

S: 32

H: AKT2

D: 932

C: AQ32

Partner would have doubled, so not relevant.

--------------------------

S: 8

H: QJ976

D: AKQJ4

C: T4

S: AKJT976 S: Q54

H: 53 H: 84

D: 6 D: T875

C: J86 C: K975

S: 32

H: AKT2

D: 932

C: AQ32

I think partner would have doubled/bid 4NT ... but pass is possible. In which case double turns +100 into +680/+1430.

--------------------------

S: 6

H: 86543

D: K864

C: KT8

S: KT98754 S: AQJ

H: 97 H: QJ

D: 5 D: AQJT7

C: 974 C: J65

S: 32

H: AKT2

D: 932

C: AQ32

Double turns +100 into +300 (everyone passes as north, right?)

--------------------------

S: Q6

H: J9765

D: KT4

C: K96

S: AJT9874 S: K5

H: 4 H: Q83

D: Q5 D: AJ876

C: 875 C: JT4

S: 32

H: AKT2

D: 932

C: AQ32

+50 into +100.

--------------------------

S: A

H: 5

D: KQT865

C: K9864

S: KQJ8764 S: T95

H: J974 H: Q863

D: --- D: AJ74

C: T7 C: J5

S: 32

H: AKT2

D: 932

C: AQ32

Partner wouldn't have passed.

--------------------------

 

S: KT8

H: 8653

D: KQ75

C: J5

S: AQJ9764 S: 5

H: 4 H: QJ97

D: T6 D: AJ84

C: K97 C: T864

S: 32

H: AKT2

D: 932

C: AQ32

+50 into +100, I think? possibly 2 down.

--------------------------

S: A98

H: 9754

D: A86

C: KT8

S: KQJ7654 S: T

H: J H: Q863

D: Q54 D: KJT7

C: 97 C: J654

S: 32

H: AKT2

D: 932

C: AQ32

+100 into +300.

--------------------------

S: J

H: 853

D: AKQ854

C: T87

S: AKQT985 S: 764

H: 94 H: QJ76

D: T6 D: J7

C: J6 C: K954

S: 32

H: AKT2

D: 932

C: AQ32

+150 into a probable -100 in 5D.

--------------------------

S: T9

H: J64

D: AQ7654

C: 74

S: KQJ87654 S: A

H: 3 H: Q9875

D: J D: KT8

C: KT8 C: J965

S: 32

H: AKT2

D: 932

C: AQ32

-420 into -590 (-300 or -800 if p bids 5D ... do you double as east?)

--------------------------

S: 8

H: Q74

D: KJ4

C: KT9764

S: AJT9654 S: KQ7

H: --- H: J98653

D: AT865 D: Q7

C: 8 C: J5

S: 32

H: AKT2

D: 932

C: AQ32

-450 into -690 or -100 depending on what partner does (actually east may well compete to 5S ... so -450 into -450 unless partner now doubles).

--------------------------

S: K96

H: ---

D: AKT65

C: JT874

S: AQJ8754 S: T

H: Q65 H: J98743

D: J D: Q874

C: 65 C: K9

S: 32

H: AKT2

D: 932

C: AQ32

+200 into +800 (or +600 if partner bids)

--------------------------

S: J

H: J973

D: AQT76

C: T87

S: AKT8765 S: Q94

H: 65 H: Q84

D: J85 D: K4

C: 4 C: KJ965

S: 32

H: AKT2

D: 932

C: AQ32

+50 into +100/-100 depending on what p does

--------------------------

S: T

H: Q863

D: AKQ84

C: JT6

S: AJ98764 S: KQ5

H: 94 H: J75

D: 5 D: JT76

C: K95 C: 874

S: 32

H: AKT2

D: 932

C: AQ32

Partner might double 4S; if not double turns +100 into +650/-100 (if partner drives to slam).

--------------------------

S: AJ

H: QJ94

D: A854

C: JT6

S: KQT9864 S: 75

H: --- H: 87653

D: KQT6 D: J7

C: 85 C: K974

S: 32

H: AKT2

D: 932

C: AQ32

+50 into +100.

--------------------------

S: Q87

H: J83

D: KQ765

C: T4

S: AKJT654 S: 9

H: 97 H: Q654

D: T D: AJ84

C: J95 C: K876

S: 32

H: AKT2

D: 932

C: AQ32

+100 into +300.

--------------------------

 

Which leaves me less sure than before which is going to be better!

[Guest Jlall]

I wouldn't double in direct seat

[Rebound]

<snip>

 

Rebound, if you're taking the aggressive call whenever it's a close call, doesn't that just mean that you move the boundary of what counts as close slightly?

 

<snip>

Frankly, what I mean is, at the table, I found myself thinking, "What would an expert do here? Pass or double?" I concluded it was 50/50 depending on style so I decided on double, it being the self-described "more agreessive call."

 

Hence, this post to see if my intuition about expert opinion was correct. ;)