High Level Bid pt 1

[the hog]

This occurred at a table my friend was playing at. All the players are very good. The bidding prompted some friendly discussion after the hand.

 

NV vs Vul

Opps are playing a big C system. 1C = 16+ any

P (1C) 5S

 

KQJTxxxx

void

xx

xxx

 

What do you think of your 5S bid?

Would you bid any differently if you had a no void?

[hrothgar]

I have mixed emotions about 5♠

 

You only have 6 losers. Worst case scenario you're down 4X for -800. If the opponents have slam they're making 980 so this should be a decent enough result. Furthermore, you have VERY solid spades. Yes you're missing the ace, but you have a solid interior. It might be difficult for either of the opponents to try for a penalty. Finally, and this is probably the most important point: You are really jamming their auction. The opponents are going to have a very tough time working out their right level. If they do decide that they want to play a slam, they might very well get the strain wrong (I suspect that your biggest pluses would come about if the opponents stumbled into the wrong slam)

 

Balanced against this, the Heart suit isn't breaking, which could doom their slam. If the play in Hearts they'll need to deal with a miserable split. if they play in a minor you might be able to make a Lightner double.

 

Marty Bergen always said that he was happiest when the opponent's competed over his preempts. I think that this is one of those cases. I suspect that i'm going to be a lot happier defending a 6 level contract than playing 5♠ doubled.

 

So I guess I'm back where I started. i have solid spades. They're going to have trouble converting. I might as well put the screws to them and bid 5...

[pbleighton]

I'm not upset with my 5S bid, as it is reasonable, but I am surprised at it, since I was sure I bid 4S.

 

Peter

[neilkaz]

I agree with hrothgar's comments about the 5♠ bid here White vs Red.

 

4♠ is OK, since PD may have enough defence to set a 5 level contract, since I may get a ruff in ♥ or ♥ could split really badly if they play there.

 

5♠ is quite committal since if the opps don't have a slam, they may just whack it and take the money, how ever it may only be down a couple.

 

5♠ gains so much when the opps play in the wrong slam and get set when another slam makes and it turns their decision into much guesswork.

 

5♠ it is for me as well, but I have to admit that I would've had a very hard time bidding above 4♠ at the table.

 

.. neilkaz ..

[Guest Jlall]

Why should the opponents have a slam? Why should they even have a game? Why shouldn't this deal belong to us? Why shouldn't they just double us in 4 even if they can make at the 5 level? I've never really understood the line of thinking that causes 5M preempts (especially spades).

 

We simply don't have enough information to be bidding 5S. I have 6 points, RHO has 16+, that means partner could have as much as 18 (unlikely but possible). Certainly partner having say 10 points would not be shocking. LHO could be broke, and that too would not be shocking. Partner may well have some heart length and the opps cant make anything. Even if the opps can make something the "normal" thing that happens on this auction is LHO makes a card showing X and RHO passes it since he can't safely compete to the 5 level without knowing much about his partners hand. So basically I hate this bid.

[neilkaz]

It is really unlikely that PD has 18 HCP since he passed initially.

 

Anyhow, if PD is unpassed, I'd just bid 4♠ and let the chips fall where they may.

[whereagles]

There's a high chance opps have a slam (especially since pard passed and people tend to open rather light these days), so I would probably have bid only 4♠, hoping that opps would stop short of a likely making slam.

 

I have no problems with 5♠, though. Slam might not make, or they might stop to dbl me.

[pclayton]

5♠ is fine, but I'd probably blast 6♠ with this.

[pclayton]

Why should the opponents have a slam? Why should they even have a game? Why shouldn't this deal belong to us? Why shouldn't they just double us in 4 even if they can make at the 5 level? I've never really understood the line of thinking that causes 5M preempts (especially spades).

 

We simply don't have enough information to be bidding 5S. I have 6 points, RHO has 16+, that means partner could have as much as 18 (unlikely but possible). Certainly partner having say 10 points would not be shocking. LHO could be broke, and that too would not be shocking. Partner may well have some heart length and the opps cant make anything. Even if the opps can make something the "normal" thing that happens on this auction is LHO makes a card showing X and RHO passes it since he can't safely compete to the 5 level without knowing much about his partners hand. So basically I hate this bid.

While all this is true, all of it could be very wrong as well. While 4♠ might be our optimal spot, the shape of this hand tells me that we aren't going to buy this for 4♠ anyway.

 

I don't like 4♠, because partner has a right not to play us for this much offense. Bidding 4♠ and then 5♠ is possible I guess, but I'd rather not give the 5 level to the opponents.

 

I feel pretty strongly about playing forcing passes at a high level. It makes no sense to let the opponents play their preempts undoubled, and if we start from this premise, a forcing pass can be a valuable tool.

[Codo]

I like Justins comment - well besides pd having 18 HCPs maybe. But 8- ten is possible.

Yes to give them the 5. level makes it easier to explore the right slam. But maybe not as much as they want. If you bid 4 ♠ X pass 5 any, how can they find a better place?

The only possibility is when one of them has a two suiter and the right tools to show it. Maybe not too likely at all at least not more likely then buying the contract for 4 ♠.

[Winstonm]

4S is enough - anymore than that takes the reading of tea leaves - this accomplishes all you are trying to do, which is use up room and make the opponents guess. 4S may be too much, even, if they have no game, but at least it is a reasonable preempt opposite a passed hand pard.

 

5S is a statement that you know for a fact the bid is right - an imposibility in this auction.

[cherdano]

Why should the opponents have a slam? Why should they even have a game? Why shouldn't this deal belong to us? Why shouldn't they just double us in 4 even if they can make at the 5 level? I've never really understood the line of thinking that causes 5M preempts (especially spades).

 

We simply don't have enough information to be bidding 5S. I have 6 points, RHO has 16+, that means partner could have as much as 18 (unlikely but possible). Certainly partner having say 10 points would not be shocking. LHO could be broke, and that too would not be shocking. Partner may well have some heart length and the opps cant make anything. Even if the opps can make something the "normal" thing that happens on this auction is LHO makes a card showing X and RHO passes it since he can't safely compete to the 5 level without knowing much about his partners hand. So basically I hate this bid.

Do you feel as strongly after considering this is 3rd seat, and thus partner a passed hand? I would bid 4♠, but I am not sure how I would feel about it if I knew the auction would start the same way at the other table, and that my counterpart is bidding 5♠.

[cherdano]

Bidding 4♠ and then 5♠ is possible I guess, but I'd rather not give the 5 level to the opponents.

I can live with 4♠, 5♠ or 6♠, but I very much hate this plan.

[mikeh]

I hate 5♠. I agree with Justin's take on the bid. What is there about this hand that says that the opps have a sure slam? Or that they are going to reach it after a more pedestrian 4♠?

 

Have none of you ever seen a passed hand that contains 2 Aces? Or QJ10x of the suit in which we are void? Etc, etc.

 

5♠ is a hero bid.... not a bridge bid.

[Blofeld]

I hate 5♠. I agree with Justin's take on the bid. What is there about this hand that says that the opps have a sure slam? Or that they are going to reach it after a more pedestrian 4♠?

If you thought the opps had a sure slam, wouldn't you be bidding 6♠ to make them guess about the grand?

 

I like 5♠ precisely because it won't always be right for the opponents to bid over it, and they can't tell because they've got no room. I strongly disagree with Winston's suggestion that a 5♠ bid is a statement that we know the bid is right.

 

---

 

Second choice is 4♠, but I think my third choice is a psyche rather than 6♠.

[Guest Jlall]

Missed the part where pard is a passed hand...but he can still have 11, the hand can still belong to us, etc etc. I still feel like 4S has a good chance to buy it there doubled, the hand could be ours (less likely opposite a passed hand), or the opps could be going down at the 5 level and will still have a hard time judging what to do.

[Apollo81]

I'd bid 5♠ in a strong game playing opposite a partner that opens aggressively (systemically or otherwise) 4♠ otherwise....

 

I'd consider a 1♥ overcall too....pard didnt preempt so he can only hang us so high.

[mikeh]

I hate 5♠. I agree with Justin's take on the bid. What is there about this hand that says that the opps have a sure slam? Or that they are going to reach it after a more pedestrian 4♠?

If you thought the opps had a sure slam, wouldn't you be bidding 6♠ to make them guess about the grand?

 

I like 5♠ precisely because it won't always be right for the opponents to bid over it, and they can't tell because they've got no room. I strongly disagree with Winston's suggestion that a 5♠ bid is a statement that we know the bid is right.

 

---

 

Second choice is 4♠, but I think my third choice is a psyche rather than 6♠.

On most hands, competent opps will simply double and take the money. And, most of the time, they will be right.

 

I am sure that, if we did a simulation, 5♠ will lead to 5♠ doubled most of the time, and, when it doesn't, the opps will be bidding on to the 'right' contract anyway (compared to over 4♠). The main difference between 4♠ and 5♠ will be that the opps will score 300 more most of the time.

[Guest Jlall]

The main difference between 4♠ and 5♠ will be that the opps will score 300 more most of the time.

Yes that was my main point but I wasn't saying it well, thanks :blink:

[Blofeld]

I definitely accept that there will be a reasonably large number of hands where they'll just double 4♠, and also double 5♠. Obviously in this case 5♠ loses. I think it will only tend to lose 200, though -- if it's losing 300 then partner's hand provided no tricks for us, which somewhat decreases the chances that it was right for them to penalise us (though obviously partner could have a stack of hearts, so this isn't always true) -- but 200 is still 5 IMPs.

 

But there are various other cases. Reasonably often they'd be bidding at the 5-level over 4♠ but doubling 5♠. This is a good score for the 5♠ bid if they were making at the 5-level and partner can provide us with a trick (3 or 4 IMPs) or two (7 or 8). Obviously it's a bad score otherwise.

 

When they bid the same thing at the six (or seven!) level over either bid, it makes no difference what they did. But it seems that even if by and large they do the same thing, they're more likely to get it wrong over 5♠, where they have more space. Either they'll reach the wrong slam, or they'll overreach after 5♠ and go down ... or alternatively neither will be able to bid a slam they could reach after 4♠.

 

This may backfire and get them into a good slam or keep them out of a bad one they wouldn't/would reach after 4♠. But on balance I think good opponents will be more likely to reach the right spot when they've got more space to investigate it.

 

---

 

Overall I think that 5♠ is more a statement of a belief that they can make at the 5-level than the 6-level. This could be wrong, but my guess is that the balance of probability is with the 5♠ bid.

 

This would be a fun hand to try a simulation on, I think. If only so we can argue about what our opps would do in the ensuing auction!

[mikegill]

I think both 4 and 5 spades are reasonable bids, and that neither would ever be called "clearly wrong". Here are some points I'm not sure have been mentioned.

 

1) Let's think about what partner is likely to have. He is a passed hand, which probably will average something like 8 HCP, especially given that RHO showed 16+. How many defensive tricks do we think partner will average with his 8 HCP, especially given that he's under the 1C bidder, and that all of his Qs will likely be picked up if there's a guess? I'm betting he'll take 1.5 tricks (or less) on average. I will almost never take a trick if they bid in hearts (which seems most likely since I have fewest of them), and probably around 1 trick on averave in a minor, depending on who declares. Overall our total number of defensive tricks will be 1-2, and rarely outside of that range. It seems like on a normal day they will make 5 or 6 of whatever they bid.

 

2) How many offensive tricks is partner likely to have? Well probably not as many, since only certainly cards are worth something to me. My extra shape means that more cards could be useful (like maybe the QJ of clubs), but still I think partner will give us a trick at best on average. (We estimated 1.5 tricks on defense, and, as a quick approximation, all of his heart honors are wasted on offense, which is 1/3 of the possible honors, so he should take about 2/3 as many tricks on offense as defense. I know the actual total will be less than this because of defensive tricks with Js and Ts in their suits). So our expected total number of tricks is 8, assuming nothing completely outlandish happens in spades.

 

3) Will partner bid 5S over their 5-level bid necessarily if it's right? A scenario where they're making only 5 and we're down 2 or 3 in 5S is very possible given the above information, and especially at matchpoints it's important to compete to this level. The question is would partner raise to 5S on a hand like xx xxx Axx KQxxx? Would the same people who bid 4S on this hand bid 4S on the same hand with one fewer spade, in which case partner would be wary of raising on only 2? A lot of people would preempt 4S over a strong club on KQJTxxx xx x xxx or the like. I guess this is more of a style issue - is it more valuable to preempt aggressively and advance conservatively, or vice versa. I don't think anyone has a definitive answer to this question.

 

4) Are the people who bid only 4S planning to bid 5S on their own? General strategy says to compete to the level where you don't know what it's right for them to do. Here, you can be pretty sure they should be bidding at the 5-level from our previous analysis, and that you won't go for too much in 5S. This argues for bidding 5S. However, they may not know they should compete, and may stop to double you in 4, which would make 5S kind of silly. It is also a valid tactic to bid 4 planning to bid 5 as long as you already know you're going to do it - however, this tactic is usually applied to lower-level bidding where you don't risk pushing them into a making slam. This method may be especially valid if you are known to be an aggressive preemptor. If you would make this preempt on one fewer spade, then they are more likely to double you in 4 for fear that they can't make anything. Especially given that they will have no idea as to the degree of their fit. I really don't have any idea what the odds are that they double us in 4S vs. 5S, and I suspect it varies considerably depending on the opponents and their opinion of you.

 

Overall, I think that 5S is probably a better IMP bid. It seems to win bigger when it wins. If they get doubled in 4S at the other table, you're only losing 200 likely (300 at the outside). The extra level of preemption could do nasty things to them, all of which could easily gain us 13+ IMPs. I can be wrong twice at 5 IMPs a piece as long as I win 13 once. It seems unlikely that both 4S and 5x are going down, and that's where this bid really loses. In addition to this, people seem to overbid, or to think they're being talked out of a slam at favorable. Maybe this is not true with really good opponents.

 

As a side note, the problem with hands like this, though, is that they're so rare that it's very difficult for any person to get a sense of what's right because they have so few data points to work with. Even in a lifetime of playing, there's always the chance that your few hands you've seen are skewed from reality to make being aggressive or conservative seem right to you.

[Free]

I don't see a reason to bid 5♠. 4♠ is good enough, but I'm considering 4♥ or 5♥.