hrothgar Posted November 24, 2006 Report Share Posted November 24, 2006 Seems like the estimate depends of the frequency of each opening used. Such must be dependent of the system and I assume those percentages(20% of all hands that you get dealt are opened 1♣) cannot be looked up anywhere - or? I know two ways to derive frequency statistics for different bidding systems 1. Keep very careful records when you play. If you play enough hands, you'll eventually get reasonable estimates 2. Write a set of scripts that describe your opening style and feed these into a dealer program Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csdenmark Posted November 24, 2006 Report Share Posted November 24, 2006 Seems like the estimate depends of the frequency of each opening used. Such must be dependent of the system and I assume those percentages(20% of all hands that you get dealt are opened 1♣) cannot be looked up anywhere - or? I know two ways to derive frequency statistics for different bidding systems 1. Keep very careful records when you play. If you play enough hands, you'll eventually get reasonable estimates 2. Write a set of scripts that describe your opening style and feed these into a dealer programI doubt any of those options available 30-40 years ago. What to say? The estimates for the polish pass systems are fairly arbitrarian and more based on the polish youngsters engagement than anything else. Such can be used for very little I think. Looks not to be able to predict anything of importance. It is advised Antidelta with aggressiveness 2.32 to be used as a 1-2 seat opening system and Delta with agressiveness 1.8 to be used after pass-opening as response structure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csdenmark Posted November 24, 2006 Report Share Posted November 24, 2006 Let me try to summarize some reasons to open: (1) In order to reach the best contract, when this contract is played by our side.(2) To reach a good sacrifice (the par spot) when that is a sacrifice by our side.(3) To help partner judge when to double if/when the opponents decide to bid.(4) To indicate a lead in case we end up defending.(5) To take up space and make it difficult for opponents to judge the par spot. I think your arguments need to carry weights. They are not equally important. I think (4) To indicate a lead in case we end up defending is of no really importance at this stage. I think you are missing the point of pushing opps. into less precise defensive bidding. This is one of several points in playing strong pass systems. Strong Pass players take the upper hand unless opps. open in 1st seat. I think this is why the weak(0-7HcP) openings are not so dangerous as they looks like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted November 24, 2006 Report Share Posted November 24, 2006 >>I know two ways to derive frequency statistics for different bidding systems >>1. Keep very careful records when you play. If you play enough hands, you'll >>eventually get reasonable estimates >>2. Write a set of scripts that describe your opening style and feed these into a dealer >>program >I doubt any of those options available 30-40 years ago. Maybe they just sat down with a deck of cards and dealt out 10,000 hands over the course of a long weekend. Hell, if the definition of your openings is simple enough, you can always solve the problem by hand. For whats its worth, I do know that 30 odd years ago I had access to DEC mainframes through my father's University. Admittedly, computing power was a lot cheaper here in the US than in Poland. At the same time, I could get a batch job run when I was a 10 year old kid. Hell, the TRS-80 first started shipping 29 years ago. I'm quite sure that you could run the necessary programs on that... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winstonm Posted November 24, 2006 Report Share Posted November 24, 2006 My thoughts are this: you should open the hand if the hand qualifies from previous agreements with partner about what constitutes an opening hand - and this discussion should be fairly deep into shapes, HCPs, interior spots, and doubleton honor combinations. It is not so important what you agree but that you agree as long as the agreement is honored within shades of judgement. There shouldn't be a great deal of variance from an expected minimum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarceldB Posted November 25, 2006 Report Share Posted November 25, 2006 Claus wrote:>Seems like the estimate depends of the frequency of each opening used. Such must be >dependent of the system and I assume those percentages(20% of all hands that you get dealt >are opened 1C) cannot be looked up anywhere - or? >The percentage for 1C in SAYC and in Regres I assume will be very different. Are such >assumptions based on something? Empiri? Wishthinking? Tables? Underneath for the system DELTA you mentioned, the working-out of the figures Pass:13+p. = 26,79%1D: 0-7p. = 28,58%1C, 1H and further: 8-12 = 44,63% Pass , automatically : 0 1C, all balanced: 4333 up to 7222 = 64,3592% of the handshapes x 44,63= 28,7056 x step 1= 0,2870 1D= 28,58 x step 2 = 0,5716 1H= s/v S most common 4441 up to 7330 = 32,83% of the handshapesdivided by 4 (s/v S only) = 8,2075% x 44,63 = 3,663 x step 3 = 0,1099 1S= s/v H , same--> 3,663 x step 4 = 0,1465 1NT= s/v D, 5c Major (so no 4441), = 0,094 etc. up to 2NT for the most common s/v shapes -----total:Pas = 01C= 0,28701D= 0,57161H=0,10991S= 0,14651NT= 0,09402C= 0,10002D= 0,12372H=0,05002S= 0,06402NT= 0,0103C and higher = 0,2694Totally: 1,8261 Slawinski counted approx. 1,8 =====I hope to have made it clear for you regards,Marcel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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