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Percentages? No way!


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A hand I played last night in my local club. I play 6C and I get a club lead:

 

AQ9863

86

K4

962

 

-

AQ1075

AQ7

AKQJ10

 

So I start playing the percentage play: goal is to discard a heart on DQ, ruff 2 hearts and discard another heart (in my hand this time) on SA, losing only 1 heart unless they are 3-3 divided when I'd make +1.

I play DK, DA and DQ and east ruffs! Change of plan... I overruff, and go for the Heart finesse. Hearts now have to be 3-3 and the King in front, or maybe 4-2 with the jack falling. Bam! HK in east and another club. I had to lose only 1 heart anymore, because they were 3-3 divided... I went one down. Even if I didn't overruff, I went down, because east had another trump.

 

There was a winning play: start directly with HA and a small heart, because I have to ruff only one (3-3 divided) heart and then I have 12 tricks.

 

This hand is a typical example of the fact that percentages are not always right!

 

Would you have played my way, or the winning way?

 

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i think (at 6C) i'd lead HA, diamond to king, toss a heart on SA, low heart toward HQ/10, covering whatever east played (if i can).. sometimes east gets antsy and plays the HK if he holds it, sometimes west has K doubleton, but always i avoid a guess..

 

i have no idea if the percentages favor this or some other play

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  • 2 weeks later...

A hand I played last night in my local club. I play 6C and I get a club lead:

 

AQ9863

86

K4

962

 

-

AQ1075

AQ7

AKQJ10

 

So I start playing the percentage play: goal is to discard a heart on DQ, ruff 2 hearts and discard another heart (in my hand this time) on SA, losing only 1 heart unless they are 3-3 divided when I'd make +1.

I play DK, DA and DQ and east ruffs! Change of plan... I overruff, and go for the Heart finesse. Hearts now have to be 3-3 and the King in front, or maybe 4-2 with the jack falling. Bam! HK in east and another club. I had to lose only 1 heart anymore, because they were 3-3 divided... I went one down. Even if I didn't overruff, I went down, because east had another trump.

 

There was a winning play: start directly with HA and a small heart, because I have to ruff only one (3-3 divided) heart and then I have 12 tricks.

 

This hand is a typical example of the fact that percentages are not always right!

 

Would you have played my way, or the winning way?

 

Free

Unless there is a 100% play there is always a change that r percentage play isn't working :)

That's why it is called % play hehehe But I would have played Heart Ace and go to dummy with the Di K and play a heart up. Maybe not best % play but that's what my feeling tells me to do. I have gone down before and I am sure I will go down again hehehe.

 

Mike ;D

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