Assign the blame

[sfbp]

[hv=d=s&v=n&n=sat8642hj52d73ca6&s=sq93haqt3da642c73]133|200|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

Bidding

 

1N - 2♥ -

2♠ - 3♠ -

AP

 

Notrump is 12-15 so this hand is technically at the bottom of the range.

 

The rest of the field bid as follows

 

1♦ - 1♠ -

1N - 3♠ -

4♠ AP

 

A cold zero.

[HeartA]

Not sure of the bidding. You mean North bid 3S to invite, or passed 2S?

 

Assume North bid 3S and South passed. North has 9 HCP, 6 hearts, 2 aces. 6th's heart worths at least 2 more hcp, and 2 aces should earn another hcp. In total, North's hand worths 12 hcp. We can also calculate North's Zar points:

9 (HCP) + 4 (controls) + 9 (6 + 3) + 4 (6-2) = 26.

Anyway, North's hand worths more than he thought. Having said that, I don't mean I would open North's hand. After South's 1NT opening, North's hand can be upgraded to 12 counts (no mis-fit).

 

On the other hand, South's honors are all good, 2 aces, Q in pd's suit, AQ with 10 backed up, with 9-card fit (North's 3S shows 6+ cards) and ruff value. South's hand is not an average 12, it is better than average 13 or 14, can accept the invitation as well.

 

In short, I assign 50% to North, 20% to South, and 30% to bad lucky.

[pclayton]

[hv=d=s&v=n&n=sat8642hj52d73ca6&s=sq93haqt3da642c73]133|200|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

Bidding

 

1N - 2♥ -

2♠ - 2♠ -

AP

 

Notrump is 12-15 so this hand is technically at the bottom of the range.

 

The rest of the field bid as follows

 

1♦ - 1♠ -

1N - 3♠ -

4♠ AP

 

A cold zero.

Steven, why do you think this is a good 4♠? Looks pretty marginal to me.

[the hog]

I assign 0% to Nth and 0% to South. I would have been even more conservative and played in 2S!

[sfbp]

I fixed the bidding, the notrump bidder's partner invited with 3♠

 

I was slightly mystified myself by the traveller.

 

Some even made 5 with the K♥ onside.

[the hog]

I fixed the bidding, the notrump bidder's partner invited with 3♠

 

I was slightly mystified myself by the traveller.

 

Some even made 5 with the K♥ onside.

Inviting with 3S is aggressive, but not unreasonable. I suppose you "might" accept playing Imps. Again it is certainly very reasonable to pass. HeartA's answer is masterminding after the event! As Phil said, its marginal to say the least.

[matmat]

100% to the field. on a good day this is a top.

[Guest Jlall]

unlucky the hands fit perfectly, game is worth bidding for sure, but it's not the greatest. I would accept with the south hand playing 12-14 NT but I would not invite with the north hand at MP. I think playing 12-15 it's too big of a view to accept.

[Codo]

It is obvious that seeing 26 cards, I want to be in 4, but I see no mistake in the bidding. With the given system I hand played 2 Spade.

[paulg]

It's quite clear that this is Stephen's fault for playing in the wrong company, since he'd have got an average with all of us.

 

p

[Guest Jlall]

It's probably easier in standard because south has the type of hand that is a routine raise with 3 trumps even in a balanced hand, and then north upgrades his hand. But yeah you can't get to every marginal game with 21 HCP and a 9 card fit and no singletons... just a fact of life :)

[sfbp]

Your comment suddenly reminds me of a marvellous example in Design for Bidding (SJ Simon) that I read so many years ago. He constructed a pair of hands about like this and started out general bidding discussion by saying something along the lines of "you'll never be able to construct a bidding system that finds the best contract on these hands".

 

Anyone got a copy? That was, for many years when I never played bridge, one of my significant memories of things brilliant written about this game.

 

Thanks for cheering me up. I was South, and didn't accept.

 

I must confess if anyone could have saved it, holding something like North's cards I have been known to make a Texas transfer and pray, especially at teams. Often works though. Playing our system the chance of holding THREE spades when I open a NT is a bit higher because we exclude a bunch of shapes, but really that's a small consideration. The ♥J is massive, too!

 

PS (added later) I just found the results - the traveller was incomplete when I looked, we got about 30% on this board, not zero. But still the majority were in game

[inquiry]

Hard to fault anyone. However, if you followed ZAR points (yes I know noone does). south has 26 ZAR points before partner bids spades, and then gets two fit points for 28. North starts with 26 and would get one more if partner can suport spades. 52 needed for "game" here you have 52 before fit, and 55 afterwards. Zar would blame the system.

 

I certainly would not be upset to play below game at mp, at IMPs, I would want to bid this one -- ESPECIALLY vul. So I would lay the blame on North.

 

Why do I "blame" north? Vul at imps you just bid close games, so you make lighter than normal game tries (since the close ones you just blast).

[whereagles]

Notrump is 12-15 so this hand is technically at the bottom of the range.

technically a min, but tactically a max.. all working points, useful doubleton, controls.. just bid 4♠ after the invitation.

[Al_U_Card]

Hindsight. 8 losers opposite 7 losers for spades. Minima both. Slow and steady wins the race. While I can see some merit in the invite with the Spade hand, that balanced piece of cheese is just looking for a negative result in 4 spades. 2 or 3 spades looks like the spot to me......4 is on a wing and a prayer and this time the bridge gods seem to have paid off....

[pclayton]

IMPs I want to be there; MPs - no. Its MPs right?

[inquiry]

IMPs I want to be there; MPs - no. Its MPs right?

sorry.. bad eye sight... yes at mp, not bidding it is fine

[Guest Jlall]

IMPs I want to be there; MPs - no. Its MPs right?

I will take this to mean that you think game is less than 50 %. I don't do math but it looks >50 % to me everything considered. Maybe someone else will do it for me, thanks :lol:

[cherdano]

IMPs I want to be there; MPs - no. Its MPs right?

I will take this to mean that you think game is less than 50 %. I don't do math but it looks >50 % to me everything considered. Maybe someone else will do it for me, thanks :)

If you tell me the likelyhood of a minor suit lead? :lol:

[whereagles]

Assuming perfect defense, game needs a spade honor onside and the heart finesse. That's roughly 75% of 50% = 42,5%, or of the "worth bidding" type :lol: A bit more if you guess a singleton trump honor right.

[sfbp]

Assuming perfect defense, game needs a spade honor onside and the heart finesse. That's roughly 75% of 50% = 42,5%, or of the "worth bidding" type :P A bit more if you guess a singleton trump honor right.

Any 2-2 spade break OR any singleton honour, surely?

 

And if hearts break you don't even need the KH unless opps manage to break both minors.

[Guest Jlall]

Assuming perfect defense, game needs a spade honor onside and the heart finesse. That's roughly 75% of 50% = 42,5%, or of the "worth bidding" type :P A bit more if you guess a singleton trump honor right.

The only problems with this are:

 

A) you dont account for a heart or spade lead (admittedly a spade is unlikely). On a heart lead you are in good shape. At MP do you usually make aggressive leads into the strong hand after invitational auctions? I don't. A heart lead from 3 or 4 small is certainly a strong possibility, and is likely without a minor suit sequence on your left.

 

B ) You assume a bad line in spades. Double finessing is the worst line.

 

C) You don't need a heart hook if spades come in for 0 losers.

 

D) You can make it even on a club lead even when you have 2 spade losers if it's Kxx of hearts onside. Now in theory this is a 0 % proposition as you would never pick it up, but lets say you win the club lead and play the heart jack. It gets covered. LHO now gives count showing an odd number! you play a spade to the ace, no honor falls, and you play on hearts. LHO had KJx of spades and xxx of hearts, well played. Or how about this line... you win the club ace and lead a heart to the queen. It holds. You cross to the spade ace and lead a heart. RHO plays the king. You now play a heart to the jack and they ruff but only get 2 spades and 1 club (you pitch the diamond on the spade). Well the problem with this play is that LHO may duck the heart king and also that the only holding youre actually gaining against is RHO holding a stiff spade and the Kx of hearts, not too likely.

 

These percentage calculations are very flawed. If I'm in a contract needing to pick up xx opp KJx, I do not see that as 50 %. That should be calculated as at least 60 %, perhaps more, yet it never is. Assuming perfect defense is very flawed as well, you don't get it ever. If the opps are defending perfectly you are going to lose so just quit. Good declarers are going to find some lines that are 0 % to find on paper, thats why they're good. This will happen far more often than them going down in a 0 % possibility on paper. It does not cancel out, declarer has the advantage even against equal skill opposition.

[kenberg]

The bridge encyclopedia does not seem to have exactly this spade combibnation but it has combos that are close (for example Axxxxx opposite QTx, pretty much the same as here providing you intend to start the spades by playing the ace) and gives 78% chance of five tricks. This seems about right: You lay down the ace, there are 16 possible layouts of opponents cards, four of them are bad (singleton spot (either of two) with E, void with E. void with W). This may be as good as you can do with the suit.

 

But now it gets tricky (it almost always does). You are not necessarily dead if you lose two spades, providing you can ditch a minor loser. Suppose the play begins with a club, you win the ace, and you start on trump. You play the ace, small spots appear. You play towards the Q and E shows out. Now you are dead even if the heart finesse was working, since you cannot get back to your hand.

 

 

Edit: The following is a corrected version. I had way to many kings in the previous version:

 

So maybe the spades should be started, trick 2, by leading towards the 9. The Encylopedia recommends this anyway, providing E would hop up holding Kx. If the 9 loses to the Jack, you later are on the board with the diamond ace and you lead the Q, letting it ride if W produces a spot. Don't forget to congratulate E if he produces the K.

 

It seems to me the best line of play is not clear. But this seems like trouble if the heart king is offside.

 

As far as getting to 4 is concerned I think if anyone would bid it, S would. Minimum point count, but Qxx opposite a known six card suit is worth more than two points. An auction beginning 1D 1S 1N (playing strong NT) is more or less equivalent, and we are told they got there by 3S then 4S, with S holding the same minimal count and the same Qxx. Rebidding 4S over a 12-14 1NT rebid, or making a Texas trf over an opening weak NT, seems wildly optimistic to me. Bidding 3 is pushy.

[whereagles]

Justin, all that is fine and dandy, but factoring in all possibilities of declarer/defender play complicates the problem immensely and I find it hard that a mathematician will try and solve it for free :)

 

I just followed a simple straight-down-the-middle line and came up with about 45%; 50% if you will. That's good enough for any of us to bid game, so we should be on it :P

 

As for the play in spades, you're right that there may be better than the double hook. But I'm not going to look that suit combo now :P

[Guest Jlall]

I just followed a simple straight-down-the-middle line and came up with about 45%; 50% if you will. That's good enough for any of us to bid game, so we should be on it :P

actually games at MP need to be 50+ % to bid, assuming that percentage factors in everything.