1S - P - 4S - ?

[Dwingo]

[hv=d=w&v=n&s=shqj9763da87caqj2]133|100|Scoring: IMP

You hear the bidding go

1♠ - P - 4♠ and now it it is your turn.

 

How do you value your hand and what are your agreements here?[/hv]

[the hog]

4S can mean anything. Choices ar X, 5H and 4NT. The fact that I have 6!! H means that 4NT is a distortion. X is a possibility, but the 6th H leads me to a 5H bid.

[Guest Jlall]

I'd X, suit is too bad and hand is too flexible for 5H. Wouldn't shock me if they made, but what can you do with such great potential and opps who are white/red? Partner will usually pass, but if he has a 6 card suit or 5-5 or so he'll probably bid which will be good for us. If he does pass, we will beat it pretty often, and they will make pretty often.

[HeartA]

I would bid 4NT, I don't wont to miss the club fit. If my pd bid 5D, I would "correct" it to 5H...

[cherdano]

Justin has said all about X. Let me add that I very much disagree with 4N. We will play a 4-3 club fit too often, as partner has to bid 5♣ with 4=2=4=3 or 3=2=5=3 etc. (4N is any two suits, not minors.) Even if we find a 4-4 club fit, it may well be worse than the 6-2 heart fit. (Give partner Qxx Tx Jxxx Kxxx plus spade lead and diamond switch after opps win the first heart. We won't get any heart trick.)

 

Arend

[Finch]

I also double.

[whereagles]

Dbl might get me into some -790s but I think it's preferable to dbl than to put my eggs all in 1 basket by bidding pass or 5♥.

[mikeh]

I agree with double, altho I think that 5♥ is not awful. 4N definitely is awful. Consider partner's dilemma with some 3=5=2=3 hand: his correct bid is 5♣. So you miss not only 6-2 or 6-3 ♥ fits, you even miss 10 or 11 card fits!

 

The main downsides to double are that they make 590 or that partner pulls to an inferior spot.... what if he pulls to 4N? Are you bidding 5♥ or the disciplined 5♣? Either could be right.

 

The upsides to double are considerable: it is probably your best route to a plus: partner may have just enough to beat them yet not enough to allow you to make an 11 trick contract. Partner may have a weak but distributional hand: say 2=0=7=4 and now you are really happy you did not bid 5♥.

 

And when they make 590, maybe bidding would be -800.

 

Note that I haven't mentioned the Pass option: anyone who passes should never get out of bed...something bad could happen when you do.

[bid_em_up]

I'd X, suit is too bad and hand is too flexible for 5H. Wouldn't shock me if they made, but what can you do with such great potential and opps who are white/red? Partner will usually pass, but if he has a 6 card suit or 5-5 or so he'll probably bid which will be good for us.

 

If he does pass, we will beat it pretty often, and they will make pretty often.

Hmmm, can somebody explain that last sentence to me?

 

It cant be both. (It just feels that way, hehe) :)

[Guest Jlall]

If you think 50 % of the time is pretty often...

[Dwingo]

[hv=d=w&v=n&n=s632hak42dj96c976&w=skj1074h5dkqck10843&e=saq985h108d105432c5&s=shqj9763da87caqj2]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

 

OK, This was the full hand. As Justin and other have noted you are going to have to give 590 many a time. I Doubled and partner passed and Opps collected their 590.

 

Should partner pull to 5♥ with his collection?

 

At this high level, there are no guarantees and you take your pill and bid.

 

In a Team event, you can expect the Opp in your seat, who has to make the same decision when he comes to this crossroad, will make the same call as you and the damage may not be much.

 

This happened in IMP Pairs, and we lost 8 IMPs or so. In a IMP Pair event, I am wondering if a conservative action like a Pass is winning move, as you expect varied results for this hand.

[cherdano]

I would be -590 playing with myself. Double is close, and pass by partner is clear IMO.

 

Arend

[the hog]

Vindicated! I think one fact that the doublers are ignoring is that for 5C to make you will almost invariably have to bring in the H suit. Iow if 5C makes, so probably will 5H.

[pclayton]

I voted for 5♥ with no strong convictions.

 

One thing to consider is that if you put pard on 2.5 spades, that you will average close to a 9 card heart fit. And if you end up playing 5 of a minor, a heart ruff rates to be an issue. As Ron says, there's a good chance you'll have the same heart losers in 5 minor anyway.

 

Double could be best over the long run, because of the frequent 9 IMP gains from getting 4♠ x'd -2 +300 versus -100 in 5 of something. Pard probably is balanced, so you'll get a lot of these.

 

However, with these colors, there is a good chance that the opps will bid 5 over 5 with their 10+ trump, which tips the scale for me.

 

I don't feel vindicated :blink:

[pigpenz]

most likely between 5♥ and pass.

need minor suit cards from partner to have chance at five minor or 4♠doubled down. If partner has AK♥wasted on defense good for offense....so its a crap shoot either right or wrong.

 

double wrong lose5 imps

double right gain 2 imps

4nt to minor no telling what your in store for

5♥ probably stands to gain more than losing when double is wrong .

 

so i would say imp table would maybe give just an edge to 5♥ over double, and pass is playing it safe.

[jdeegan]

:( 5♥ or Pass a fairly close decision imho. I do not see how double can EVER be the correct call on percentages given that the hand has so many total tricks. Opponents advertise 10 spades and I have a void. We are up to 11. My six-bagger opposite 2.5 hearts brings us up to 19.5 total tricks even with no further surprises.

 

The actual hand is nothing unusual. 20 trumps plus a void. They can make 10 tricks, and we have 11 in hearts. The double can be the winner, of course, if they have 8 or 9 tricks and we have only 10. What are the percentages on that? It also wins when partner has a five or six card minor suit and one or two hearts. Again, these are not the most likely cases, by far.