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Name this squeeze plz


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I think you need to watch your movie again, there was no sqeese, what happend is richard played the A of spade instead of a small one to jill. (am not saying it was a mistake)

 

sorry this was writen after 27 hours with no sleep

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It most clearly was a squeeze. Richard held 4spades, the singleton heart ace and diamond QJ. If he throws a heart, that gives you two heart tricks and an overtrick. if he throws a diamond that gives you four diamonds and three overtricks. So he had to throw away a spade winner. So in a six card ending with one winner, you squeezed him in three suits. Loser count was 5, winner count was one. He was thus squeezed out of one of his spade "winners", thus you would lose 3S and heart ace....

 

This is nothing other than a developmental squeeze, what clyde love called a CLE squeeze. For companion lead entry. The entry is the diamond king, the companion is the heart queen, and the lead is a small heart. This is one major type of squeeze that makes up for a defect in the number of losers. The spade play at the end just gave you a bonus trick.

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The general rules when leading partners suit is to lead low from three small IF YOU have not supported the suit, and to lead high if you had (he knows about the three card legnth then)....The same general rule (I thought, see below) from three to an honor is to lead low, with some exceptions for leading the ACE if that is your honor.

 

There will be other exceptions where you might want to lead the jack from Jxx after partner bid them and the opponents ended in 3NT, but you have to pick and choose those based upon some bit of logic of from the auction or your hand that tells you to do so. On this hand, I see no reason to make anything other than the normal low from Jxx lead. Others, of course may have a different view.

 

Actually, this is again a place where BridgeBrowser can help you. You can search by auction, where opening leader has bid spades, and the opponents end up in 3Nt. You can force leader to hold Jxx spefically, and then see the average result for leading the JACK versus small.. .Sadly, of course, there is a lot of variabilty in skill levels (not to mention not everyone will get to 3NT on these hands) so you will need to find tens of thousands of these hands to feel like the data is telling you anything, but one thing it will tell you very quickly is rather or not leading the Jack versus the small is standard, for you will have a total of all the hands with a spade lead, plus the total for all the jack leads.

 

However, it is possible to perform a seach of 3NT contracts and look for leads from specifically three to the jack, add in the bid analysis tab to make sure partner bid spades somewhere in the auction (either as opener... in which case the 3NT contracts will be the ones by non-opening side, or as overcaller or advancer -- meaning in 4th seat, in which case 3NT will be opening side).

 

If low from Jxx in partner's suit is "standard" then you would expect a low percentage of JACK leads (NOTE, there is no software way to rule out leads of J from JTx which is normal from lead of Jack from JTx. Mathematically, JTx will occur much less frequently that Jxx, I leave it up to the math genius to figure out how much less.. My simple minded math is that there is 10 cards less than the Jack and you have two slots for which the JACK can be held... 2 out of 10 is 20%. So that 20% of the jack leads will theoretically (in my mind) be from JTx. So the number of jack leads have to be reduced by this 20%.

 

I performed a search on hands where partner bid 1 and they played 3NT. what was the opening lead? A surprizing number of times, the opening lead was the jack. In fact, a 2007 hand search turned up jack lead 52% of the time. Understand that the 20% of this time, leader will have JTx, so the we reduce this data by 20%. The actual numbers were...

 

Total leads 2007

Jack leads 1043

Estimated JTx is 20% of 1043, or 209 hands

Reduce total by 209 and jack leads by 209

 

Correct leads 1798

Jack leads 834

Estimated percentage of J from Jxx = 46.4%

 

I have to admit this is higher than I thought it would be....

 

Ben

 

Stastically leading the jack was slightly worse than leading small, but the sample size was too small and leading the jack includes from JTx so it is not clear how to remove that effect with automation from the averages.

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Actually give leader has Jyy where y is any card less than the JACK, the odds are probably slightly better than 1/5 that the ten is held.. there is 1/10 chance first y is the TEN, then if not, a 1 in 9 chance the second is.. I make this as 21.1% chane of holding JTx.... can some math whiz figure out if this is close to right?
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Sadly the 'standard' lead from Jxx when partner has shown the suit depends on the auction.

 

At one extreme, you have something like this, auction starting on your right:

 

1D P 1S P

1NT P 3NT x

 

and you hold

 

Jxx

xxx

xxx

xxxx

 

it is standard to lead the Jack.

 

Or, more generally if you are weak, partner has shown length and overall strength, and dummy has shown the stop e.g. partner dealing,

 

1S x 2S x

P 3D P 3H

P 3S P 3NT

all pass

 

you may well lead the Jack.

 

While if RHO has shown the stop e.g.

1S 1NT 2S 3NT

all pass

 

you will lead a low one because you want to be able to attack the suit from both sides while there's no urgency to force a high card from dummy.

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