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hand evaluation poll


Stephen Tu

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[hv=d=s&v=n&s=s9xhaj9xxxd8xxxcx]133|100|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

Clearcut 2h opener at this vul?

 

Say for whatever reason you decide to pass. Partner opens a strong NT. Signoff, invite, or FG?

No, 2 is even too rich for me ;)

 

Over 1N, I'd invite via 2 followed by a 3 raise. I'd accept opposite any type of super accept.

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Last time I held this hand, it was black AJ9xxx xx x 10xxx and red v white I made the mistake of opening 2: I was bored and talked myself into it, knowing that the player at the other table was hyper-aggressive and would definitely open.

 

Well, I batted 50%. The -1100 was a push.

 

As for after 1N, I invite.

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I would have opened 2H for what its worth. -1100 happens, so does getting the right lead, preempting the opps and making them less accurate, finding a big fit that allows you to bid a low HCP game that you would have been shut out of otherwise (yes this happens, your side passes throughout cold for 5H), etc etc. The heart 9 made me do it ;)
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The heart 9 made me do it ;)

That was my argument as well... and I even had the 7 to back it up. My teammates nodded, but I don't think they really agreed :)

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There is one big problem with an invitation: I doubt, that pd can visulisze your hand accurate to make a good descission after your 3 Heart bid.

 

How on earth can you have a hand too weak for a weak two, but strong enough to invite now? I guess my pd will play me for a 46xx hand, because this is the only hand, which I might not open. He may make some very funny bids under this assumption.

 

If you have the agreement, that weak twos content two top honours or at least 6 or 8 HCPS in red, then this is easier and an easy invite.

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Why is this a "clear cut" 2 opener with us Vulnerable and the opponents not vulnerable? I guess it depends on your partnership agreement.

(Maybe this is a Marty Bergen V-nV 2 bid?)

 

What would your non-vul vs. non-vul 2 bid look like?

 

How about your non-vul vs vul 2 bid?

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"Why is this a "clear cut" 2♥ opener with us Vulnerable and the opponents not vulnerable? I guess it depends on your partnership agreement.

(Maybe this is a Marty Bergen V-nV 2 bid?)

 

What would your non-vul vs. non-vul 2♥ bid look like?

 

How about your non-vul vs vul 2♥ bid? "

 

You don't want to know :)

 

Peter

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I open 2 all day long at MP's and don't invite at MP's. If PD superaccepts I carry on to game.

 

I'd pass at Imps since being wrong can be too costly and even at Imps this hand is not an invite for me over a 15-17 NT as PD may have strength in my short suits, but I think it is close to an Imp invite.

 

..neilkaz ..

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This hand has seven and a half looser which is right for a 2 opening as well as for an invite if partner opens a 15-17 1NT.

 

I don't care too much for the vulnerability when preempting in first seat at matchpoints. An undisiplined preempt may mess up your own auction, but zero MP is zero MP. But this is a disciplined 2 so I would do the same at IMPs.

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Not that it matters, but I did an analysis using bridgebrowser of this hand. I had to make some tradeoffs, and quite frankly, suit quality is problem with this search.

 

Conditions:

 

1. Dealer vul opponents not

2. Dealer has 5 or 6 hcp (I added one) with AJxxxx in hearts or spades

3. Dealer shape is 6332, 6421, or 6331

4. I forced dealer to open 2H or 2S (depending upon long suit).

 

First, why tradeoffs? Why not 6421 with exactly 5 hcp at vul versus non-vul? Because restricting to DEALER, cuts the number of matching hands by 1/4, restricting to AJxxxx specifically cuts it further, limiting to at most one more jack even further. There were simply too few hands that fit the requirements if you make them so restricted.

 

Even with these "expanded" terms, I had searched across 7 onllne databases (two BBO tournament databases, 3 bbo main room databases, and two okbridge databases) to find the hand that matched these criteria.

 

The results appear to suggest that opening with a weak two (either) earns an average of -0.084 imps and 49.08% MP (2483 hands). The data for hearts alone was -0.30 and 49.74 (1312 hands) and for spades +0.15 and 48.27 (1171), The data from each database is given below, and clearly the variability suggest a larger sample size is needed before any conclusions could be drawn. In addition, AJT8xx is much better than AJ5432, whihc wasn't evaluated, and 6421 is a much better shape than 6322. So this is probably nothing more than a general interest post.

 

HEARTS
Imp     Hands     Matchpoint  Hand
-0.22      57          56.04	17
0.53       99           46.67      6
-0.71     191        36.69        31
0          0         47.15        72
-0.12      339        52.31        283
-0.5       152        42.5        8
-1.37      37        41.51        20
Total      875                  437

SPADES 
Imp     Hands     Matchpoint  Hand
-1.09        74        44.62        36
1.12        112        46.67        5
0.62        96        47.11        54
-0.34        80        53.51        28
-0.49        273        48.27        204
0.9        127        70.66        5
1.11        57        45.39        20
Totals       819                   352

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