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Grand or no grand?


cherdano

  

21 members have voted

  1. 1. Grand or no grand?

    • Pass
      17
    • 7[HE]
      4
    • Other
      0


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[hv=d=w&v=b&s=sxhaxxxdaktxxxckx]133|100|Scoring: IMP

(4)-P-(P)-X

(P)-5-(P)-5N

(P)-6-(P)-?[/hv]

So after your partner passed in direct seat, you made the obvious double. He surprises you with 5 instead of bidding some number of clubs. Over your 5N (agree?), he bids 6.

 

Feel free to assume that partner is world class, and you are comfortable with each other's style in this auction.

 

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The 5NT bid looks very weird to me - what's wrong with 6?

 

Anyway, why did partner bid 5 over the double and not bid 6 directly? If his only problem was finding which suit to play in then surely he would have bid a minor over 5NT. So as I see it he must be inviting a grand slam. We might wonder why he passed over 4 in that case (too many spades, presumably), but I can't see it makes any difference. In the context of partner inviting a grand we have a beautiful hand, with all prime cards and a long suit as a source of tricks. I can't imagine not accepting the invite.

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I think that 5 delivers 1st round control of , while 5N is merely pick a small slam, denying a 1st round control. On the auction, that 1st round control is the Ace, 99% of the time.

 

Since he then chose 6, he has a one suiter... at least 5 chunky with no decent 4 card side suit.

 

He could well hold what we need for slam. In fact I'd go as far as to say that he probably does.

 

 

But we don't (shouldn't) bid grands unless they are heavy favourites: much more than 51%. Kaplan used to say that they should be 75% to cater to the non-rare instances when the other table missed even a small slam.

 

Is partner a 75% favourite to hold the right cards and to find, for example, no immediate ruff and so on? I don't think so, but it is close.

 

I would bid the grand if playing a team that was markedly better than mine, because we need luck as well as skill in order to prevail. On all other occasions, I pass.

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The 5NT bid looks very weird to me - what's wrong with 6?

I don't think it is so weird. After 5N, you can show the red suits with better diamonds by removing partner's likely 6C bid to 6D. Bidding 6D directly would look more like a 1363 to me, and partner might not feel safe to bid a 5-card heart suit over that.

 

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I don't like 5N either. I'm not sure why bidding 5N and removing 6C to 6D shows better diamonds than hearts. After 5 spades you work on the assumption partner has 2 places to play. If you bid 5N and he bids 6C, he might simply have the minors. So with say, 2542 you would bid 5N and correct 6C to 6D. Surely with equal length in the reds you would also bid 5N then 6D. Bidding 6D over 5S makes a strong statement: I have good and long diamonds, while at the same time your diamonds are somewhat limited by your failure to bid them over 4S p p (you couldn't have say, 7 decent diamonds).

 

I also think that 5S shows a first round control while 5N directly would deny one. Now partner has shown a first round spade control and hearts. Would he always bid 5S with a first round control and a 6H bid? Some might argue that he should as a courtesy bid for you in case you have a monster without spades controlled, but the problem is there isn't enough room for that. Bidding 5S-6H with all 6H bids that have the SA or void puts partner under huge pressure, and sometimes he will bid it when its wrong. Basically, you have to pay off when one hand has a monster and the other has the first round spade control, and the monster isnt big enough to figure out that partner must have a void or the ace of spades for his auction. 5S-6H should not only show a first round spade control, but a GOOD 6H bid as well.

 

Given that, I really can't see 7 not being very good. Partner will often have 6 hearts to just force to hearts, and with 5 they are unlikely to be missing one of the top honors. It's possible, he could have Axx KJTxx xx AQx for instance, but it was hard to construct a hand, and 7 still has decent play. I think I have a great hand for a grand, and my only worry is 3 small diamonds with partner, but I don't think that holding is so likely that it will stop me from going. 4 trumps, a stiff spade, an A, K and a 6 card suit to the AK has to be enough for partner if hes inviting me to bid this one.

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Someone told me not to bid grand slams unless I can count 13 top tricks. Whilst I MIGHT be able to picture 13 top tricks, I can also picture 12 being the limit, when things don't break as they should (likely given the 4 opening.

 

3 low diamonds would be a major concern, and if they aren't 2-2 then I'll probably go off.

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Ach.. too many unknowns. I'll just take it doubler should have some hearts and that 5NT shows at least 44 hearts/minor.

 

Pard should have something like

 

Axxx KQxx x Axxx

 

or

 

Axx Kxxxxx xx Ax

 

Looks like 7 is good, but I won't bid it unless I was sure pard and I were in the same wavelength. At this high a level, with a possible misunderstanding and bad breaks lurking, 6 is enuff.

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Call me a pessimist, but I'd be concerned that even if partner has a hand suitable for a grand, it may fail on an opening ruff or a very bad trump split. Given the vulnerable preempt, neither possiblity seems all that unlikely. Maybe if those exes in the heart suit are the T98...
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