3 suiter when P opens 1N and RHO interferes

[uday]

All vul, playing money bridge, you pick up

 

 

AKQ42

A862

---

9752

 

Nice enough, and it gets nicer when partner opens 1NT (15-17).

 

RHO makes things awkward for you with a jump to 4D (natural, 7+ diamonds)

 

 

Your call, at total point scoring is......?

[mikeh]

4♠

 

If we were red v white, I might try 6♠ to induce a save, but they ain't bidding 7♦ red, and 6♠ is anti-percentage anyway. Bidding 5♦ might get us to an inferior 4=4 ♥ fit with weak trump. At this scoring, take the money.

 

Even if double were negative, such doubles get left in a lot, and, when they don't, again we may play in a poor ♥ contract. At least I can score 5♠ tricks in my own hand opposite xx in dummy (so long as I can ruff 2♦)

[hrothgar]

All vul, playing money bridge, you pick up

 

 

AKQ42

A862

---

9752

 

Nice enough, and it gets nicer when partner opens 1NT (15-17).

 

RHO makes things awkward for you with a jump to 4D (natural, 7+ diamonds)

 

 

Your call, at total point scoring is......?

RHO opponent just made a vulnerable 4♦ overcall playing MONEY bridge. I'm gonna go out on a limb and place him with the AKQ of Diamonds. We're suddenly playing with a 31 HCP deck and my partnership is sitting on between 28 and 30 of these points.

 

1. I want to play slam

2. I prefer to be ruffing Diamonds with low cards (This recommends a round suit contract). I'm not worried about my "weak" Heart suit because partner is sitting on honors.

 

I'm bidding 5♦

[Al_U_Card]

[hv=s=sjxhqjxdkjxxcaqjx]133|100|[/hv]

 

I would imagine that this is the absolute worst 15 hcp hand that pard can hold. Now the question is what is the best possible contract for the two hands? Since I gave LHO a baby ♦ to allow for the initial D lead if you are declaring....

 

4♠ looks likely. 5♣ is a shot but 1 trick too many.

[pclayton]

All vul, playing money bridge, you pick up

 

 

AKQ42

A862

---

9752

 

Nice enough, and it gets nicer when partner opens 1NT (15-17).

 

RHO makes things awkward for you with a jump to 4D (natural, 7+ diamonds)

 

 

Your call, at total point scoring is......?

RHO opponent just made a vulnerable 4♦ overcall playing MONEY bridge. I'm gonna go out on a limb and place him with the AKQ of Diamonds. We're suddenly playing with a 31 HCP deck and my partnership is sitting on between 28 and 30 of these points.

 

1. I want to play slam

2. I prefer to be ruffing Diamonds with low cards (This recommends a round suit contract). I'm not worried about my "weak" Heart suit because partner is sitting on honors.

 

I'm bidding 5♦

My sentiments exactly. We have a 31 or 32 point deck (please no jokes that I'm not playing with a full deck :P), I have a prime 13 and pard has 15-17. That leaves a total of 1 to 4 relevant points outstanding.

 

Thinking about a small slam? Heck, I'm thinking about a grand, but its unlikely that its biddable.

 

I'll start with 5♦...and then:

 

1. Over 5♥; 6♥

2. Over 5♠ (I can dream, right?), 6♦

3. Over 5N (pick a slam), 6♦ and 6♠ over 6♥.

4. Over 6♣, pass.

[Finch]

Maybe I'm naturally pessimistic, but I agree with mikeh.

 

You aren't playing for certain with a 30-point pack. Don't you think x xx KQJ109xxx xx is (at least) a 4D overcall? Partner is allowed one top diamond honour, although I agree two are unlikely.

 

Let's give partner 15 working HCP (look! nothing in diamonds!)

 

Jxx

KQJ

xxx

AKJx

 

where do we want to play opposite that hand?

6S is on the club finesse and trumps not 5-0 (plus if trumps are 3-2 you get to cash two top clubs first). So it's an OK contract, but nothing great. And partner had nothing wasted in diamonds.

 

Of course I can write down lots of hands where slam is making, but a 5404 shape is a lot less powerful than a 55. Make a club a heart (or a heart a club) and you've sold me 5D.

 

If partner has 5 clubs we are likely to be making slam. But you simply can't find out. And money bridge pays when you go positive.

[HeartA]

5D without 2nd thought.

[Guest Jlall]

4S seemed automatic to me at first...thinking it over it is closer than I though, but I'd just bid 4S. There are a LOT of losers partner has to cover, and theres no reason (from my point of view) to place RHO with the AKQ of diamonds. In fact, I would bet on partner having one of those cards if you gave me even money.

[whereagles]

Dbl (takeout) seems fair.

[mikeh]

Dbl (takeout) seems fair.

Double will usually result in you being on lead: maybe not best (although it might be). Double may be defined (by you) as takeout, but I suspect that the common expert treatment is 'transferable values', and the reality is that opener will pass a great many times.

 

Thus, with Jxx KQJ Jxx AKQx, pass is almost automatic... and if opener does pull, it will be to 4♥... probably neither 4♦ x'd nor 4♥ is our best spot :P

 

It comes down to this:

 

If you think that this hand is worth driving to slam, bid 5♦ (no-one, I hope, is intending to force partner to bid 5major and then pass: all the disadvantages of the cue bid and none of the advantages, makes that a silly plan)

 

If you think that we have to declare rather than defend and don't think slam is a good idea, bid 4♠

 

If you think that 4major is best only when partner has a 4 card suit, and you are happy, otherwise, to defend, double (bearing in mind that you may end up defending even when he holds a 4 card major: Jxxx KQx Qxx AKJ, he's not bidding 4♠).

 

I stick with 4♠, and am pleased by the quality, if not the quantity, of my fellow 4♠ bidders :)

[pclayton]

I stick with 4♠, and am pleased by the quality, if not the quantity, of my fellow 4♠ bidders :P

Mike: I hope you don't consider this hand as a lithmus test for a player.

 

I am a 5♦ bidder but I think its close. There's nothing from anyone's comments that indicates the reverse to me.

 

If you took a poll of top 100 players in the world, perhaps you'd have 35 to 45 out of 100 make an agressive call with this hand.

 

Hardly convincing :)

[the hog]

This is very close. I am inclined towards a simple 4S for one reason only - the 4D bid augurs for poor breaks. Do I want to play 6H with a possible 5-0, 4-1 break and find my hand is forced at trick one?

 

If I am wrong, I will apologise. Whereagles takeout X, if it is available, would be ideal, but I suspect it is not an option.

[jdeegan]

:P "Was it six shots or only five ................................ do you feel lucky? Well do you punk!"

 

"Gee sir, I don't really know. Partner rates to have about 13 HCP outside of diamonds, maybe KQ of ♥ and KQ of ♣ plus two useful jacks. It really looks very close to me, so how has my luck been running?"

[mikeh]

Mike: I hope you don't consider this hand as a lithmus test for a player.

 

I am a 5♦ bidder but I think its close. There's nothing from anyone's comments that indicates the reverse to me.

 

If you took a poll of top 100 players in the world, perhaps you'd have 35 to 45 out of 100 make an agressive call with this hand.

 

Hardly convincing :(

Definitely not :P

 

This is a hand on which all players can disagree. And it is a hand on which there can be no clear answer: even a simulation would be of little help because we would need to agree on the constraints for the 4♦ bid and even then we'd get legitimate disagreements on matter such as what opener should do over, say, a card showing double or over 5♦ with 3=3=3=4 or 3=3=2=5 etc.

[SoTired]

4S - Take my vul game

 

I think the conditions of contest are the critical component: "money bridge"

 

Like buying a speculative stock for 10. It rises to 20. Should you sell and take your profit or wait for more profit? If you sell, how sad would you be if the stock rose to 50? Compare that to how sad you would be if you did not sell and the stock dropped to 0?

 

Same thing here. Bid 4S and take your vul game. I will not risk my safe 600 for the unsafe 1400. If we are a laydown for 6, I could have made more money on this hand... tsk, tsk.... but if we go set in slam I will cry at the lost money.

[mike777]

"Like buying a speculative stock for 10."

 

I can only speculate what a speculative stock is :P

 

One can speculate or invest but not sure what the heck a speculative stock is as compared to a nonspeculative stock ;)

[Guest Jlall]

Bid 4S and take your vul game. I will not risk my safe 600 for the unsafe 1400. If we are a laydown for 6, I could have made more money on this hand... tsk, tsk.... but if we go set in slam I will cry at the lost money.

This fallacy causes people to lose at money bridge. Instead of thinking in terms of money, you should think in terms of equity. If you miss a 60 % vul slam that never goes down more than one you go 680 60 % of the time and 650 40 % of the time (for simplicity). So your equity by bidding game is 668 points. If you bid the slam you will go 1430 60 % of the time and -100 40 % of the time so your equity is 818 points. If you bid just game, you are LOSING 150 points of equity, a serious mistake. Any time you make a decision where you are losing equity, you are losing money in the long term. To be a winning player you need to make more +EV decisions than your opponent because in the long term you will be dealt the same amount of high cards, games, slams, etc. So don't think in terms of "well at least I won money" if you miss a good slam, you are really losing money in the long term.

[SoTired]

"Like buying a speculative stock for 10."

 

I can only speculate what a speculative stock is ;)

 

One can speculate or invest but not sure what the heck a speculative stock is as compared to a nonspeculative stock :)

Maybe I used the wrong term. I meant a stock with high risk and high profit chance. I always thot such investments were termed "speculative".

 

To Justin: Yes, of course. Using probability and expectations for most repeatable gambling decisions and choosing the option with the highest expectation will result in long term gain. But this is a different situation. You have no way to determine the percentage chances for slam, nor ensure that you are getting to the right one. It would take a serious DD analysis to determine your actual chances. So in this case, "Take your money and run" is good advice.

[hatchett]

I assume I am playing with GIB? If so, I vote for 4♠ not least, because I expect GIB to do something insane after 5♦, either on this round or the next round of bidding.

[Finch]

I was arguing this hand last night with my husband, whose initial reaction was to bid 5D. One point not yet made is that you may reach the wrong spot when slam is making somewhere else. As any of your 8-card suits are quite liely to break 4-1 it may crucial to play in the right one. If partner has

 

Jxx

Kxxx

Ax

AKJx

 

you want to play 6C, but with

 

Jxx

KQxx

Ax

AQxx

 

you want to play 6H (or even 7H is probably better than 6C)

 

yet partner will probably bid 5H over 5D on both of these hands.

 

So overall I think I do believe that you are lkely to be making slam somewhere. But because I think the chance of reaching the right slam is not so great, I'm sticking with 4S.

 

By the way, if partner always opens 1NT with a 5-card major that changes the odds. I'm not a fan of that method, so I know at least the only 9-card fits I could be missing are in clubs and spades... not in all 3 suits!

[Blofeld]

To Justin: Yes, of course. Using probability and expectations for most repeatable gambling decisions and choosing the option with the highest expectation will result in long term gain. But this is a different situation. You have no way to determine the percentage chances for slam, nor ensure that you are getting to the right one. It would take a serious DD analysis to determine your actual chances. So in this case, "Take your money and run" is good advice.

I don't believe that this is a different situation. The odds of making slam that you must use are not of course the odds that you'd calculate if you could see partner's hand, but the odds you can guess at in this one-handed position and knowing that partner opened 1NT.

 

Estimating these odds well is one of the hardest parts of bridge!

[mr1303]

If I bid 5♦ here GIB will probably pass it.

[pigpenz]

4S seemed automatic to me at first...thinking it over it is closer than I though, but I'd just bid 4S. There are a LOT of losers partner has to cover, and theres no reason (from my point of view) to place RHO with the AKQ of diamonds. In fact, I would bet on partner having one of those cards if you gave me even money.

yes i would expect opp to be bidding on some sort of hand that he feels he cant beat 3nt on

[HeartA]

4S seemed automatic to me at first...thinking it over it is closer than I though, but I'd just bid 4S. There are a LOT of losers partner has to cover, and theres no reason (from my point of view) to place RHO with the AKQ of diamonds. In fact, I would bet on partner having one of those cards if you gave me even money.

Well, if 4D bidder had DAKQ....., we should be in grand. Since I don't expect pd had nothing in D, I am looking for small slam only.