Lead problem

[Guest Jlall]

This one is from the trials a while back. You hold AJxxx AQxxx x Qx. Red/white RHO opens 1D, you bid 2D, LHO Xs showing values, partner bids 4S, and RHO bids 5D. Mainly based on the table action from LHO and RHO and because of their aggressiveness you decide to make a very questionable X. Everyone passes... what do you lead?

[pclayton]

I've gone back and forth on this mentally, but I think a low spade might be right. I don't know the hand, but I can't see why its not something like:

 

[hv=d=s&v=b&n=sxxhjxxdqxxcakjxx&w=sajxxxhaqxxxdxcqx&e=skqxxxhxxxdxxcxxx&s=sxhkxdakjxxxxcxxx]399|300|[/hv]

 

If by 'values' you mean more like u/u, I don't like the low spade, but rather the A♠, since I hope to take 3 tricks, including the Q♣.

[jdeegan]

:rolleyes: No doubt wrong on the actual hand, but I don't see any reason to lead anything other than the spade ace. It is the most likely trick to go away. If RHO slid with Kx of spades, I would be most surprised. If he is void opposite the king on my left, AND the pitch is useful, well sh*t.

 

Other leads seem problematic. Maybe a low spade to partner and a heart through before they pull trumps and take a bunch of club pitches is vital, but not a high percentage prospect. Partner needs a card or two somewhere, and my assuming it is the king of spades and that he has nothing else of defensive value seems to me like too much of a position.

[cnszsun]

If i feel 5♦ is more likely to be down, i may try a passive ♦ lead.

[zasanya]

Since small ♠ is so logical it must be wrong on this hand. Since ♣ Q is so illogical it must be the only lead to beat the contract.If not ♣ Q then ♥ A since that is second most illogical!

[Guest Jlall]

Or maybe I just want your opinion on what the best lead is as I don't think it's clear.

[Finch]

I think it's a long way from being clear.

 

It depends a bit what double showing 'values' means - does it mean interest in defending (in which case I expect major suit cards in the dummy) or does it show random balanced high cards.

 

If the former then the ace of spades lead is likely to be ruffed.

I don't like the low spade lead, it's gambling that partner has the king which isn't certain and it may be very expensive.

 

The ace of hearts could easily be right, but could also be fatal.

 

I probably go with the down-the-middle ace of spades, but I'm not happy.

[Winstonm]

If my choice of leads is unclear, perhaps I shouldn't have doubled; if a poor choice of leads allows the contract to be made, perhaps I shouldn't have doubled; if I have to find the right lead to beat this only one, I'm positive I shouldn't have doubled.

 

I think with a grossly distributional hand partner would have pulled to 5S. This leads me to believe partner's jump to 4S is based more likely on a double major fit than heart shortness and spade length. Perhaps a 4315 shape or a 5323 or 4324.

 

The only apparent danger seems to be either dummy or declarer coming up with a big, running club suit, but on this auction I am predisposed to place missing major honors in LHO's hand than RHO, who would devalue their worth. I would think it more likely RHO is something like 1264 shape or 0364.

 

I think there is a risk in the spade Ace, as LHO could land with KQx and RHO void.

As I don't believe RHO would highly value the Kx or Kxx of hearts, I am inclined to place those cards to my left.

 

I have talked myself into the lead of the Heart Ace. This seems to be reasonably safe and may be necessary if dummy has Kxx, opener xxx, and partner Jx.

[Guest Jlall]

Values can be any random balanced hand without very long clubs or a good diamond fit.

[Guest Jlall]

To those of you who did not lead a low spade, congratulations, you move on to the next stage of the trials to select a team to represent USA in the bermuda bowl. Sadly, I chose a low spade lead. Dummy hit with Kx and declarer remembered to pop king ;)

 

Partner had the ace of clubs, a stiff heart, and 5 spades to the queen. RHO had Kxx of hearts. So on your ace of spades lead partner would play the 2 as suit preference for clubs and then you'd get a heart through for down 3. I didn't consider the ace of hearts, but if you read the heart position you can still get 2 ruffs, 1 spade, 1 club, and a heart for down 3. On a low spade lead you beat them 1 trick.

 

Needless to say, after failing to qualify by a very narrow margin (a couple of imps) this was the decision I regretted most :unsure:

[mike777]

To those of you who did not lead a low spade, congratulations, you move on to the next stage of the trials to select a team to represent USA in the bermuda bowl. Sadly, I chose a low spade lead. Dummy hit with Kx and declarer remembered to pop king ;)

 

Partner had the ace of clubs, a stiff heart, and 5 spades to the queen. RHO had Kxx of hearts. So on your ace of spades lead partner would play the 2 as suit preference for clubs and then you'd get a heart through for down 3. I didn't consider the ace of hearts, but if you read the heart position you can still get 2 ruffs, 1 spade, 1 club, and a heart for down 3. On a low spade lead you beat them 1 trick.

 

Needless to say, after failing to qualify by a very narrow margin (a couple of imps) this was the decision I regretted most :unsure:

Quite a story thanks for sharing. In retrospect a couple of questions:

1) Do you think this hand type is better shown with a 1s overcall?

2) Do you think partner's hand type is better shown with a cuebid and not a direct jump to 4 spades?

 

If not why not?

 

Thanks in advance.

[Winstonm]

Thanks, Justin. I think it takes a degree of courage to report like this. Why is it we always most strongly remember the hands that cost us imps instead of those that gained us imps?

 

I'm also not so sure that with 51?? distribution and the club Ace partner might not pull to 5S? With something like Qxxxx, x, xxxx, Axx I'd be contemplating 6S on this auction - not that I would bid it but would not be surprised if it made.

 

As you know, it is a game or errors more than brilliancies - perhaps if a similar question arises again you might ask yourself if brilliancy is needed or just a non f.u.

[Guest Jlall]

1) Do you think this hand type is better shown with a 1s overcall?

2) Do you think partner's hand type is better shown with a cuebid and not a direct jump to 4 spades?

 

If not why not?

 

Thanks in advance.

1) Nope...bridge is a competitive game. If you don't get your suits in immediately they will preempt you out of them. I'm not too into michaelsing on garbage, or 2 suited bids in general, but 1m-2m to show the majors is by far the most useful, and I had a pretty good hand with potential for game or partscore and certainly enough playing strength for the 2 level. It puts partner in excellent position to judge what to do.

 

2) Nope...bridge is a competitive game ;) These days I'm very into blasting to game when you know you can make game and have very little chance for slam. It makes the opponents guess what to do immediately and at a very high level. Sometimes they will guess wrong, no matter how good they are. The thing to remember is that in competitive auctions slam is a very very very minor focus. The biggest focus is finding fits and taking away bidding room from the opponents.

[Guest Jlall]

I'm also not so sure that with 51?? distribution and the club Ace partner might not pull to 5S? With something like Qxxxx, x, xxxx, Axx I'd be contemplating 6S on this auction - not that I would bid it but would not be surprised if it made.

He had 3 diamonds and 4 clubs I believe, but yes he made a good decision since 5S is down. I do not think that my X should show that big of a hand though in this auction. With quick tricks at red/white, I am likely to X. A of spades and AK of hearts will not be enough to even make 5 spades (which is probably why he passed). The problem here is that on an auction like this, nobody knows who has what. If I don't X with A AK or even the hand that I had we may miss 500 to get 150. In fact, had I led better, that's exactly what would happen here. Since we are red/white I can generally count on partner for something (obviously not always, he might have 6 spades and a 0 count and a stiff heart but from a frequency point of view he will have a little something). My actual hand type wasn't so unlikely given that they had opened and made a value showing X and bid to the 5 level.

 

As you know, it is a game or errors more than brilliancies - perhaps if a similar question arises again you might ask yourself if brilliancy is needed or just a non f.u.

 

Your point is very good, and I certainly mocked myself for my brilliant lead ;) But in all honesty, I don't have much if any hero instinct, in fact as I was playing professionally on this team I definitely had none since leads like this can get you fired... leading the SA never could. I always try to make the percentage lead or play, in this case in my judgement that was a low spade. I still think partner is a huge favorite to have the spade king, and often RHO will have the HK (otherwise I will break even). Obviously it is a disaster if partner doesn't have the SK, but I thought that the relatively small risk would pay off a significant enough amount of time to make it percentage. Whether or not this estimate was correct, I have no idea, which is why I posted it :unsure:

[mike777]

1) Do you think this hand type is better shown with a 1s overcall?

2) Do you think partner's hand type is better shown with a cuebid and not a direct jump to 4 spades?

 

If not why not?

 

Thanks in advance.

1) Nope...bridge is a competitive game. If you don't get your suits in immediately they will preempt you out of them. I'm not too into michaelsing on garbage, or 2 suited bids in general, but 1m-2m to show the majors is by far the most useful, and I had a pretty good hand with potential for game or partscore and certainly enough playing strength for the 2 level. It puts partner in excellent position to judge what to do.

 

2) Nope...bridge is a competitive game ;) These days I'm very into blasting to game when you know you can make game and have very little chance for slam. It makes the opponents guess what to do immediately and at a very high level. Sometimes they will guess wrong, no matter how good they are. The thing to remember is that in competitive auctions slam is a very very very minor focus. The biggest focus is finding fits and taking away bidding room from the opponents.

Thanks for your kind reply. It just seems at first blush anyway, that 1m-2m has a huge playing/defensive range making it more difficult, not easier to judge what is best in a competitive situation.

 

Again on hand 2, blasting seems to make it harder for the opp but harder for us to determine how high to compete, lead or defend if partner can have a wide range of defense?

 

Perhaps these bids are much more limited and defined than I understand making judgement in bidding and defense easier?

[Guest Jlall]

It just seems at first blush anyway, that 1m-2m has a huge playing/defensive range making it more difficult, not easier to judge what is best in a competitive situation.

Indeed, but the alternative you suggest is a 1S overcall. When the range of this is something like 7-17 and 5+ spades as opposed to the range of 1m-2m which shows at least 5-5 in the majors and decent playing strength partner will be in much worse shape to judge what to do. I'm not sure how much more you want to bid michaels here, I would consider this a textbook hand for it though. Overcalling 1S will leave you guessing what to do next time when you could have shown your approximate hand in one bid.

 

Again on hand 2, blasting seems to make it harder for the opp but harder for us to determine how high to compete, lead or defend if partner can have a wide range of defense?

 

Indeed it makes it harder for everyone, but most of the time they will pass it out. Leading and defending are only concerns if the opponents GUESS to bid, the key here being guessing. If my partner had started with a cuebid and the opponents jumped to 5D he would be the one forced to guess. When he bid 4S he got his hand off his chest and left the rest to the opponents. In normal constructive situations you're just trying to figure out what strain and level to play. In competitive situations it is completely different, and it's often best to just take a stab at where you think you might want to play and then make the opponents decide what to do.

[Winstonm]

Justin:

 

To me it is an interesting question as to how to bid 2 suited hands - I am fairly strongly of the opinion that the important element is an equalness of the two suits.

Hence, AJxxx, AQxxx is fine but AKJ10x, Jxxxx would be better expressed with 1S.

 

Your thoughts on a hand strong enough to warrant action at that level is indeed intriguing - and I would guess that playing strength would suggest enough to play there also? QJ109x, KQ109xx, x, x?

 

I have always played that the mid-stength hand overcalls rather than uses a 2-suit bid. That bid followed by a double or raise would show a very strong hand, in the 17-ish category.

[cherdano]

Your point is very good, and I certainly mocked myself for my brilliant lead ;) But in all honesty, I don't have much if any hero instinct, in fact as I was playing professionally on this team I definitely had none since leads like this can get you fired... leading the SA never could. I always try to make the percentage lead or play, in this case in my judgement that was a low spade. I still think partner is a huge favorite to have the spade king, and often RHO will have the HK (otherwise I will break even). Obviously it is a disaster if partner doesn't have the SK, but I thought that the relatively small risk would pay off a significant enough amount of time to make it percentage. Whether or not this estimate was correct, I have no idea, which is why I posted it :unsure:

If LHO has neither major suit king, his hand starts getting pretty minor-suit oriented. Which makes him less likely to double.

 

My feeling is that you need too many things to happen for the low spade to be correct (♠K with partner, ♥K with RHO, no other entry to partner). While each of them may be likely, having ALL of them happen doesn't seem as likely as the one bad thing to happen (♠K with LHO or RHO).

 

Arend

[pclayton]

To those of you who did not lead a low spade, congratulations, you move on to the next stage of the trials to select a team to represent USA in the bermuda bowl. Sadly, I chose a low spade lead. Dummy hit with Kx and declarer remembered to pop king ;)

 

Partner had the ace of clubs, a stiff heart, and 5 spades to the queen. RHO had Kxx of hearts. So on your ace of spades lead partner would play the 2 as suit preference for clubs and then you'd get a heart through for down 3. I didn't consider the ace of hearts, but if you read the heart position you can still get 2 ruffs, 1 spade, 1 club, and a heart for down 3. On a low spade lead you beat them 1 trick.

 

Needless to say, after failing to qualify by a very narrow margin (a couple of imps) this was the decision I regretted most :unsure:

Misery loves company I guess ;)