Play 4H

[winkle]

[hv=d=s&v=n&n=sa83hat4d9832c983&s=skj96hkj986dt7cak]133|200|Scoring: IMP

Uncontested auction:

1♥-2♥-2♠-4♥[/hv]

 

Opening lead: ♣4 (4th best), righty plays the jack.

 

Plan your play.

[whereagles]

♠KA, and a low to the jack. I'll make up my mind what to do next after this.

[mikeh]

There is a well-know saftey play available in ♠, but it is fundamentally wrong to make that safety play before testing trump. If you lose a trump trick, you cannot afford to play ♠ in the manner that, while minimizing the chances of two losers, maximizes the chances of one.

 

The percentage play in trump is low to the A and then run the 10: this picks up Qxxx onside: and you cannot/should not cater to 4-1 the other way by a first round finesse into righty.

 

There is no point to A♥ and low to the 9, leaving the 10 in dummy in case we can use it to ruff the 4th ♠ (RHO is Qxxx xxx in the majors)...we are screwed if rho is Qxxx in trump, and RHO can always get the lead in ♦ and lead a trump.

 

So run the ♥10 at trick 3. If this holds, and LHO shows in, we have a choice of lines: we can play ♠ A and low to the Jack, intending to ruff the 4th ♠ in dummy if RHO is 4=3 in the majors, with Qxxx Qxx, but that is playing for 11 tricks. The better line is to draw the trump, whether they are 3-2 or 4-1, and then ♠K, A and low to the J.

 

If the ♥ hook loses, we have to play ♠ straight-up: A and low to the J.

[winkle]

Anyone else? I think there are at least two more lines worth considering, and at least one line that's better than those already mentioned.

[Trumpace]

Dont know. How about trying to ruff in hand 2-3 times, planning to throwin the opps on the 10th trick: with ATx trumps opp KJ or KJx left.

 

 

Cash ♣K and play a diamond... see what happens now.

[mikeh]

How about cash the second top ♣, exit a ♦, forcing the opps to let you ruff a minor. Assume that they play 3 rounds of ♦s. Ruff, cash the top ♠s ending in dummy and lead the last ♣, ruffing in hand. Now exit a ♠:

 

You are reduced to void A10x x void opposite x KJ9 void void.

 

Whoever is on lead, you are cold if you guess the location of the trump queen, and you will know enough by then that the guess is probably much better than 50%.

 

The main advantage to this line is that you may pick up the Qx♠: if that card appears on the first two rounds of ♠, cash the top 2♥'s, assuring the contract on all 3-2 breaks, or (depending on the carding to this point, and the inferential count), hook the trump into the hand that had the Qx♠: if they dropped the Qx from an original holding of Qxxx Qx in the majors (they win the trump Q and give partner a ruff in ♠) nominate the defender for best defence of the millenium.

 

 

This line preserves the trump guess until the endgame, when you have far more chance of getting it right, plus usually gains when the ♠ is Qx.

 

My original line required either the ♥Q onside (or stiff offside) and a high percentage of ♠ layouts (essentially all but xx or x in RHO) or a low percentage ♠ holding: Qxx or Q10 onside, while the suggested line boils down to basically normal splits plus an informed guess at the end.

 

I would think that my original line is well over 50% (when the hand can be made at all) and the other line will be over 50% by an amount that varies according to the count known in the end game. I don't know which is better, but I suspect this one will be, by more or less the effect of being able to pick off Qx♠.

[winkle]

Here are two more lines to consider:

 

1. Win the ♣A, heart to ace, and spade to jack. If it wins, cash the ♥K and you're cold on all 3-2 breaks. If it loses, us the ♠A to take the heart finesse and hope that ♥Q is on side, and either spades are 3-3 or ♠T drops doubleton.

 

2. The line that I like best so far is to take a first round heart finesse the other way. Win ♣A, ride the ♥9, then:

 

If the heart finesse wins, play heart to ten, ♥A, ♣K, ♥K. Then do the safety play in spades: ♠K, ♠A, spade.

 

If the heart finesse loses, I'll have to pick up spades, but I'll have far more chances than if I had take a second round heart finesse the other way. Say righty wins the heart Q and returns a club. I win the king and play a heart to the ace. Now:

 

   If trumps are 4-1 (lefty likely having 4), play a spade to the jack, draw trumps, spade to ace, spade. This picks up A. spades 3-3 and Q on side, as well as B. Tx / Qxxx.

 

   If trumps are 3-2, play ♠A, spade to jack. If the ten falls from lefty, lead a trump to the ten and take another spade finesse. If the ten does not fall, cash the third spade hoping to ruff the 4th in dummy if necessary. This picks up A. spades 3-3 and Q on side; B. Tx / Qxxx; as well as C. Txxx / Qx or xx / QTxx if long hearts are with the long spades.

 

Let's compare the first round heart hook against lefty versus the second heart hook against righty. The disadvantage is that you can lose to stiff Q off side when the spade safety play works. The advantages are:

 

- When you fail to guess the ♥Q, you retain a late trump entry you can use to pick up Tx opposite Qxxx.

 

- It prevents the opponents from drawing a third trump and thus retains the option to ruff the fourth spade.

 

The advantages outweigh the disadvantage.